Putin wants to surprise Ukraine with an offensive.
A mass of Russian tanks is supposed to take out the superior Leopard-2.
Is NATO aid coming too late?
Moscow/Kyiv – The heavy weapons are coming, but Ukraine wants more: After the commitment for 150 NATO battle tanks, Kyiv is also insisting on the delivery of fighter jets and submarines.
Because time is running out.
Apparently, Russia is currently massing massive forces for a spring offensive.
The plan: take Ukraine by surprise and decide the tank battle before Leopard-2 and Abrams are operational.
Can this work?
Experts say yes.
Military expert Wolfgang Richter from the Science and Politics Foundation warned against underestimating Russia in the Ukraine war, despite the delivery of tanks.
Russia still has very large national reserves that have apparently already been reactivated, Richter pointed out in an interview with the
editorial network Germany (RND)
.
Trains loaded with tanks are already on their way to the war zone.
"Even if it's not the newest material, it's in large quantities," the former colonel added.
Against Russia's war of aggression: After the battle tanks, Ukraine insists on the delivery of fighter jets
Most recently, Russia had suffered severe losses and setbacks in its war of aggression.
But the winter has slowed down the fighting in many places.
The battles are expected to intensify again as spring begins.
After tough negotiations, Ukraine had wrested the delivery of 150 Western battle tanks from NATO by the end of March.
The Leopard-2 or Abrams tanks are considered superior to the Russian T14 Armata.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government around President Volodymyr Zelenskyj wants more.
The delivery of fighter jets and submarines is also loudly demanded.
+
How many tanks does Russia have in reserve?
President Vladimir Putin is not showing his cards.
© Bai Xuaqi/Mikhail Klimentyev/dpa/Montage
Leopard-2 versus T-72: Russia relies on sheer mass for the offensive
But Russia does not want to give up too quickly and, according to experts, wants to oppose Western technological superiority with sheer mass on the offensive.
This has always been Russia's military doctrine in tank warfare, said former Austrian army commander Markus Reisner to the
RND
.
The reasoning is that you need four Russian T-72s to destroy a Western Leopard.
"Three T-72s are destroyed, but the fourth tank cracks the Leopard."
Three T‑72s are destroyed, but the fourth tank cracks the Leopard.
Markus Reisner, military expert, on the RND
And despite the high losses, Russia apparently still has sufficient quantities.
Expert Richter estimates the potential of Russian tanks on the Ukrainian front at up to 4,000 units.
So that the advantage does not shrink unnecessarily, the Russian counter-offensive could be launched as early as February - well before the Leopard or the Abrams reach the front.
This was also reported by Bloomberg
on Monday (January 30)
, citing Kremlin sources.
Ukraine War: Training on Leopard-2 takes too long
Ukraine had long criticized the West for its hesitant stance on the tank issue.
Ukrainian soldiers are now to be trained on western battle tanks by the end of March.
But success is uncertain.
In addition to the time factor, military experts see another reason why the supply of tanks from the West should not be overstated.
Tanks, drones, anti-aircraft defenses: weapons for Ukraine
Tanks, drones, anti-aircraft defenses: weapons for Ukraine
The NATO tanks are particularly superior when they go into battle in combination with armored personnel carriers, heavy artillery, helicopters and fighter planes.
But Ukraine lacks the material or expertise to do so, according to a report by the US magazine
Politico
.
The training for this cannot be done in a few weeks.
Fighter jet delivery: Chancellor Scholz tries to stifle the debate
And so it is not surprising that the Zelenskyi government is pushing for more war equipment, namely fighter jets.
The debate is gaining momentum.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) tried to stifle the discussion about the fighter planes, at least in Germany.
But whether he can defend himself against the delivery in the long run remains to be seen.
He had also opposed the question of tanks for months - before he finally had to give in.
(
jkf
)
List of rubrics: © Bai Xuaqi/Mikhail Klimentyev/dpa/Montage
