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Guillaume Tabard: "From partials to trompe-l'oeil lessons"


COUNTERPOINT - In the nevertheless unfavorable context of the challenge to the pension reform, beyond the scales, the electorate ultimately remained relatively stable.

The National Rally loses a seat (in the Marne), La France insoumise wins one (in the Charente), an outgoing PS is renewed hands down (in the Pas-de-Calais) and the majority compensates for a loss with a gain.

Bad partials for the RN?

Yes, insofar as the defeat of Anne-Sophie Frigout in Reims makes her lose a seat.

But let's look closely.

In the first round, the outgoing rose by nearly thirteen points, the largest increase measured in these three polls.

She benefited from her personal rooting.

The Lepenist party, in turn, pockets the outgoing bonus.

What made him beat is therefore not the decline of the RN but a change in the configuration of the second round.

Facing LFI in June, Anne-Sophie Frigout had doubled her score from one round to the next.

Facing Renaissance this time, she only gains 13 additional points.

The lesson of this battle of the Marne is that the macronist Laure Miller benefited from better vote transfers than the left-wing candidate…

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Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2023-01-30

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