In addition to the Russia-Ukraine war, I believe 2023 will also be an eventful year for the Middle East.
Among them, Israel's most right-wing government in history, which came to power at the end of last year, may be the driving force behind the war.
In Palestine, after last week's attack on the West Bank, which caused the most Palestinian deaths in a single day in recent years, and a suspected retaliatory terrorist attack on a synagogue in East Jerusalem that killed seven people, the government of Netanyahu (Benjamin Netanyahu) has decided to The "Joint Sitting Law" was implemented on the Palestinians in the West Bank, and the family members of the gunmen who were killed were arrested, their residences were sealed off, and they were ready to be demolished.
He also announced that he would speed up and expand the approval process for Israeli citizens to carry guns.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is likely to enter a vicious circle of escalation.
On the other hand, an ammunition factory in Isfahan (Isfahan), the third largest city in central Iran, was also attacked by a drone on the night of last Saturday (January 28) and exploded, which was blamed by US officials for Israel; by Sunday ( On the night of the 29th, a convoy of Iranian trucks crossing the Syria-Iraq border was also attacked by air, which is likely to have been done by Israel as well.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Israeli-Iraq secret war may become the two fronts where the war in the Middle East rekindles.
Masses of Palestinians held funerals for victims of Israeli military attacks on the streets of Jenin.
(Reuters)
vicious circle
The Israeli attack last Thursday (26th) took place in the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank.
The Israeli army raided from multiple directions in the early morning of the same day, and was stopped by armed local Palestinians (according to: Jenin is under the full jurisdiction of the Palestinian side). In the end, nine people were killed and more than 20 were seriously injured after several hours of exchange of fire. Injuried.
Two civilians were also killed in subsequent demonstrations by Palestinians elsewhere in the West Bank.
A hospital in Jenin was also suspected to have been accidentally hit by tear gas bombs from the Israeli army.
Regarding the morning raid, the Israeli army stated that its target was a stronghold of the "Palestinian Islamic Jihad" (Palestinian Islamic Jihad), claiming that intelligence indicated that the organization was planning to launch an immediate attack.
The Palestinian Authority, which theoretically represents the Palestinians in the West Bank, has, as usual, suspended security cooperation with the Israeli government in protest.
Hamas, which controls the Gaza area, claimed to fight back. In the end, Gaza launched a number of rockets to southern Israel on the 27th, all of which were shot down by the air defense system. Israel bombed the Gaza target it claimed was the rocket manufacturing site. .
On January 27, a Palestinian youth opened fire on people leaving a synagogue in Jerusalem, killing seven people.
The picture shows the scene of the dead lying on the street after the attack.
(Reuters)
Subsequently, violent conflicts between Israel and Palestine continued.
In addition to the terrorist attack on the synagogue mentioned above, in the Old City of Jerusalem, a 13-year-old Palestinian also shot and ambushed several Jews who were about to go to the church, and two of them were shot and injured.
In the West Bank city of Nablus, a Jewish settler opened fire on local Palestinians, injuring four people and sending them to hospital.
According to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa, there were 144 Jewish settler attacks on Palestinians and their properties on the 28th alone.
Netanyahu said that the authorities will strengthen the defense of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and introduce a series of measures to "make the terrorists' immediate relatives pay the price", including revoking their Jerusalem residency and Israeli citizenship, and legislation Allows employers to fire employees for "support of terrorism" without a hearing.
At the same time, according to media reports, the East Jerusalem residences of some Palestinians who have nothing to do with the synagogue terrorist gunmen are being demolished by Israeli armed men.
The Israeli army also sent two infantry companies to support the police in the Jerusalem area.
According to a poll released this month, as many as 61% of Palestinians and 65% of Israeli Jews believe that a "third Palestinian intifada" may break out.
The "Second Palestinian Intifada" that took place between 2000 and 2005 resulted in the deaths of more than 1,000 Israelis and more than 3,000 Palestinians.
Palestinians in Gaza took to the streets to celebrate after the terrorist attack on a synagogue on the 27th.
(Reuters)
another big uprising in the making
Objectively speaking, the conditions for another large-scale conflict between Israel and Palestine are indeed in place.
On the one hand, public opinion in Israel has already turned to the right in an all-round way.
The eight-party grand coalition government that fell at the end of last year launched the so-called "Operation Break the Wave" (Operation Break the Wave), targeting Palestinian armed activities, which directly or indirectly killed about 150 Palestinians and 30 Israelis last year. Highest death toll since the end of the "Second Palestinian Intifada" in 2009.
Some people even believe that the "fourth intifada" has actually begun when the conflict between Israel and Palestine has become more frequent.
The reason why Netanyahu was able to win the general election last year and regain the position of prime minister is due to his unprecedented cooperation with the extreme right forces in Israel.
Among them, the fringe far-right politician Itamar Ben-Gvir (Itamar Ben-Gvir), who once supported anti-Palestine Jewish terrorist attacks, has gained the power to take charge of Palestinian security affairs.
After the terrorist attack on the synagogue, Ben Gevier vowed to pass legislation to allow the death penalty for terrorists.
It seems that the tough policies left by the "moderate" governments in the past will only develop in an increasingly tough direction.
Ben Gewell, now the Minister of State Security, visited the site after the synagogue attack.
(Reuters)
On the other hand, both the Palestinian autonomous government that governs the West Bank and Hamas, which actually controls Gaza, have actually reached a certain degree of power balance with the Israeli government, and are unable to promote the resolution of the current plight of the Palestinians. , therefore, young Palestinians have been markedly radicalized.
Mahmoud Abbas, the 87-year-old Palestinian self-government president, has not allowed elections since 2005 and 2006, and the election plan for many years has finally been cancelled (the last time will be in 2021).
However, Abbas's high-handed governance in cooperation with the Israeli government in the West Bank has already lost people's hearts.
Hamas, which started out as an armed force against Israel, has indeed exchanged fire with Israel for more than a decade since it ruled Gaza. However, in the context of the absolute superiority of the Israeli military, its line of armed confrontation by shooting rockets to protest has gradually become "statement is greater than reality." ".
As a result, armed groups dominated by young Palestinians have sprung up everywhere. Sporadic attacks by these groups on obvious targets such as Israeli army checkpoints, and even terrorist attacks against civilians have gradually become the norm. The military’s intensive operations against various Palestinian settlements in the West Bank—for example, Jenin, which is the starting point of this wave of conflicts, has seen Israeli troops enter activities almost every day since the launch of the Israeli “Wave Breaking Operation” last year.
Palestinian youths with guns at a street funeral in Jenin.
(Reuters)
The crux of the Israeli-Palestinian issue is, of course, the virtual death of the "two-state solution" peace process.
As the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalates, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Israel on January 30 and meet with leaders of the Israeli and Palestinian governments.
However, serious US participation in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has almost completely ceased since Obama's second term.
The Trump-era peace package is a joke that makes Palestine "not a state" without the participation of the Palestinians.
After Biden took office, although the United States has returned to a more neutral stance, he obviously has no will to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
The crux of the matter is not clear, and the small conflicts that occur almost every day, and the occasional major conflicts, are of course unavoidable.
The tense domestic situation has not hindered Israel's external attacks.
Its suspected recent attacks on Iranian ammunition factories and convoys are just the latest in a series of operations against Iran.
Can Iran endure Israel's continuous attacks?
Since June 2020, Israel’s attacks and assassinations on Iran’s nuclear facilities, various armed production sites, nuclear technicians, high-level Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), etc. have occurred almost every few weeks.
Among them, the assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran in November 2020, and the bizarre explosions in Iran's nuclear facilities and chemical plants from May to July 2021 have attracted more attention.
Sparks occurred at an ammunition factory in Isfahan, the third largest city in central Iran, on the evening of January 28.
Although Iran claimed to have shot down the incoming drone, the images show that the factory has suffered some damage.
(Reuters)
Since former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett formed an eight-party coalition in June 2021 to kick Netanyahu out of power, Israel has focused more on this kind of targeted attack on Iran.
According to the "New York Times" report, Bennett said that US President Joe Biden had "sharply demanded" that Israel notify the United States before any action against Iraq, but he refused: "Sometimes you don't want to pre-empt I know." The Bennett administration, which is more friendly to the Biden administration, is like this, let alone Netanyahu, who is unwilling to go to the United States in person at this moment, but wants the US Secretary of State to come and pay a visit.
While there are still sporadic demonstrations in Iran and the pressure of anti-government public opinion remains undiminished, Israel's continued provocations may cause the Iranian authorities to "externalize internal problems" in response.
Since the anti-hijab demonstrations broke out in September last year, Iran has been seeking "external forces" that it can accuse. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Azerbaijan, and Kurdish forces in Iraq are all within its scope. within.
Its actions to suppress demonstrations and execute demonstrators have made it more difficult for Iran to reach a settlement with Europe and the United States on the nuclear agreement.
At this moment, Iran has become more and more clearly on the side of Russia in the Russo-Ukraine war.
Under the effect of "action and reaction", hardliners continue to dominate Iran's foreign policy.
With regard to Israel's continuous attacks on Iraq in recent years, will Iran still endure it pragmatically?
Whether it is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the land of Palestine or the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian confrontation, the Netanyahu government in Israel, which has only been re-elected for a month, is likely to be the initiator of the re-ignition of the conflict in the Middle East this year.
Shooting incident in Jerusalem, Israel, Netanyahu threatened to respond quickly to Israel's airstrikes on Gaza in response to Palestine's rocket launch Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified, killing 29 people this year person died
