Blinken's visit to China is imminent, but the United States has entered the "McCarthy Era 2.0"?

Antony Blinken is expected to visit China on February 5 and 6, becoming the first US Secretary of State to visit since 2018.

Although U.S. President Joe Biden has always denied that China and the United States are entering a new cold war, it is undeniable that the general trend of Sino-U.S. confrontation has become established. Therefore, Blinken's visit is probably the same as the "Xi Call" in November last year. , emphasizing communication and emphasizing scenes, but it will not bring about any substantive changes in Sino-US relations.

Regarding the real space for cooperation between China and the United States, the mantra of experts and scholars is basically the climate and the epidemic, or the issue of debt restructuring of poor countries.

For other major international political issues, such as the Taiwan issue, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the Ukraine issue, etc., no one can see any real results that can be brought about by the dialogue between China and the United States.

What is even more worrying is that with the Republican Party taking control of the House of Representatives this year, there are signs that the United States is entering another anti-communist frenzy like the "McCarthyism" of the 1950s, both in a symbolic sense and in actual affairs. The general blind anti-China era.

Coincidentally, the speaker of the Republican House of Representatives at the moment is also called McCarthy (Kevin McCarthy), which can be regarded as another "McCarthy era."

Anti-China show in the House of Representatives

In the House of Representatives, the Republican-driven "China Select Committee" (China Select Committee) won the support of most Democrats and passed by 365 votes in favor and 65 votes against in the 435-seat Congress.

In the future, House Speaker McCarthy is expected to be led by the Republican Party.

(Reuters)

It is different from the "Congressional and Executive Committee on China" (CECC) and the "US-China Economic and Security Review Committee" (USCC) established after former President Clinton (Bill Clinton) supported China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Focus on China's rule of law, human rights, and national security issues related to China, but the "China Special Committee" can handle all items between China and the United States in an all-encompassing manner.

Moreover, when CECC and USCC were established in 2000, Sino-U.S. relations were still on the positive side. After the end of the Cold War, the U.S., which was extremely anti-confident, still believed that the "engagement policy" would turn China into a Western democratic country. The above two There has also always been a certain degree of moderation in the conduct of the Committee.

In contrast, today's anti-China tendency has become a common ground between the two parties in Washington.

The "China Special Committee" will obviously become an important stage for the anti-China performances of members of Congress.

The "China Special Committee" was first chaired by 38-year-old Wisconsin Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher.

Gallagher, like Joseph McCarthy in the "McCarthy era" in the early Cold War, was also a Marine Corps intelligence officer. Gallagher received a doctorate in international relations from Georgetown University and is a rising star in the Republican Party.

Gallagher was endorsed by Trump's Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his campaign.

(Twitter @mikepompeo)

For Gallagher, China and the United States are already in the "new cold war", and the factor that makes the "new cold war" more difficult than the "old cold war" is that "we never wanted to decouple from the Soviet Union."

The implication is that his goal is to decouple China and the United States.

Its primary goal seems to be TikTok. At a time when the Biden administration has long had different opinions on TikTok, Gallagher advocated that if the United States either bans TikTok, it must force ByteDance to sell TikTok to American companies.

Gallagher once asked: "Is there anything in China called a private enterprise? I'm not sure." It is conceivable that any Chinese enterprise is its target.

The "China Special Committee" does not have legislative power, but it has the power to summon and conduct hearings and investigations.

In fact, TikTok CEO Zhou Shouzi has agreed to testify before another committee in Congress in March this year.

Since the Senate of Congress is still in the hands of the Democrats, the Republicans in the House of Representatives do not have the ability to counteract Biden through congressional legislation. Therefore, to gain political capital, politicians can only "make good use of" various congressional investigations they have in hand Right, this is true for Biden's "Dossier Gate", it is true for Biden's son Hunter (Hunter Biden), and it is true for China.

U.S. President Joe Biden arrives at the White House in Washington, U.S. on January 16, 2023, by Navy One helicopter.

(Reuters)

Speaker to visit Taiwan again?

Speaker McCarthy, of course, must strive not to lose to others in his tough stance on China.

When the "China Special Committee" was about to be passed, McCarthy declared that "the era of trust in Communist China is over" was a bipartisan consensus.

In order to show his bravery in resisting China and win over former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi who is widely rumored to look down on him in American politics, McCarthy is also expected to visit Taiwan in the short term.

Some US media quoted official sources in mid-to-late January, saying that the US Department of Defense was in the preliminary preparation stage for McCarthy's foreign visit, including Taiwan, and it is expected to start this spring.

Since Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August, the nervousness of the People's Liberation Army's military exercise around Taiwan has been gradually eliminated by Xi's visit in November. China and the United States have also resumed high-level dialogue on economic and trade, climate, and public health issues.

As China relaxes its strict epidemic prevention and control policy, Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council and the Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, also took the opportunity of attending the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Yellen for about three hours.

Although these Sino-U.S. communications seem to be still in the stage of managing differences and maintaining communication, it undoubtedly makes people feel that even if the general trend of Sino-U.S. confrontation does not change, the two sides still have sufficient sincerity to avoid unnecessary conflicts.

However, if McCarthy makes another trip to Taiwan to further establish the practice of visiting Taiwan by senior U.S. officials, and to cooperate with the anti-China drama that is often staged in the "Special Committee on China" of the House of Representatives, will Beijing be able to bear it?

Former House Speaker Pelosi met with Tsai Ing-wen during her visit to Taiwan on August 3, 2022.

(Getty Images)

Biden's "cake doctrine"

In terms of practical affairs, the apparent easing of diplomatic relations between China and the United States has not weakened the Biden administration's targeted efforts to contain China at all.

The semiconductor ban announced by Biden in October last year unilaterally banned the export of high-end chips and semiconductor production equipment to Chinese companies, and even prohibited Americans from providing services for China's semiconductor production. It has long been described by some American scholars as an "economic declaration of war." Book".

Recently, European and American media have also widely reported that the United States has reached an agreement with the Netherlands and Japan, which are key players in the semiconductor production equipment industry, to adopt export controls to China that are closer to US standards.

The Netherlands and Japan have not made an announcement, and the Biden administration has also avoided publicizing its achievements in "unifying allies", probably only out of the diplomatic concerns of the Netherlands and Japan towards China.

On January 30, the media again reported that the Biden administration was considering (or even decided) to completely ban the supply of U.S. technology products to Huawei. Issuing export licenses to US companies such as Intel (Intel) and Qualcomm (Qualcomm)-this also confirms that Biden's technology war against China is still escalating almost endlessly.

On January 30, Blinken was visiting Israel.

After Blinken is a Jew, his family has deep ties to Europe. He himself studied in France and can speak fluent French. He was originally the most suitable secretary of state to handle US-Europe relations.

However, apart from the opportunity of the Russia-Ukraine war, the main field of US diplomacy at the moment is in Asia.

(Reuters)

In October last year, Alan Estevez, the undersecretary of the Ministry of Commerce in charge of export policy, was asked about quantum information science, biotechnology, Whether areas such as artificial intelligence software will fall under the US export control to China like semiconductors in the future, Estevez's answer at that time was: "Will we eventually do something in these fields? If I were a gambler, I would Will put money on it."

Biden's diplomacy with China often has two sides.

On the one hand, Biden seeks to communicate with China, presenting a positive signal on diplomatic occasions to show that the United States is not a "troublemaker"; Escalation is worse than Trump's blind toughness.

This can be regarded as a kind of "cakeism" (cakeism, which means having cake and eating cake at the same time) that both fish and bear's paws want.

China's tolerance for this "cake doctrine" is limited.

But sadly, the Biden administration at this moment may already be the least hawkish government in the United States towards China in the foreseeable future.

Compared with the Democratic government, which still seeks to control the confrontation between China and the United States, and even leaves the possibility of cooperation in a certain area, the Republicans have reached the point of "rebelling against China".

Just in January of this year, Glenn Youngkin, the Republican governor of Virginia, who is considered to be more moderate, because of the participation of Chinese manufacturers in Ford's plan to build a battery plant in the state, Regardless of the political achievements of "creating jobs for this state", he denied the plan and even described Ford as "China's facade to the United States."

Although this "McCarthy Era 2.0" aimed at China may not repeat the chaotic situation of "McCarthyism" looking for traitors 70 years ago, which caused everyone to be in danger, but when anti-China becomes unquestionable political correctness, the future of Sino-US relations I am afraid that we will enter an era where it is difficult to accept rational restrictions.

The U.S., Japan and the Netherlands jointly restrict China’s chip industry and face a long night｜Anbang think tank Blinken’s visit to China on February 5 is unlikely to improve Sino-US relations Tensions have eased, saying the situation in the Taiwan Strait is related to global interests