Putin is probably planning a new attack on Kyiv - a huge mistake in the Ukraine war?

Many experts are expecting a new Russian offensive in the Ukraine war in the coming months.

Is Putin making a serious mistake?

Kyiv – Barely a year after the start of the Ukraine war, Russia can only point to limited successes.

After initially gaining territory in large parts of the country, the Russian military has now focused on eastern Ukraine.

The conflict, which according to President Vladimir Putin should have lasted only a few days, is about to enter its second year.

Many experts are now expecting another Russian offensive in the north of the country.

The target of the Russian military leadership could once again be the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.

But Putin could be committing a serious war mistake with this plan.

Ukraine-News: Before main battle tank delivery - Russia is probably planning a new offensive in Ukraine

Various experts assume that Putin will call for a major offensive in Ukraine in the spring.

This should happen promptly - even before Western battle tanks can be delivered to Ukraine.

The delivery of the German Leopard 2 and US Abrams tanks is expected to take a few more months.

These tanks would give the Ukrainian army a tactical advantage on the battlefield.

Moscow could therefore try to carry out a successful offensive before they arrive in Ukraine.

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Will Russian President Vladimir Putin make the next tactical mistake in the Ukraine war?

© MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/AFP

Serious mistake in the Ukraine war: does Putin overestimate the skills of his soldiers?

As the military experts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) explained in their situation report on Sunday (January 29), Russia could fail in another offensive because of an old problem: a lack of self-assessment.

"Russia's military failure in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Cherson oblasts has repeatedly shown that the Russian military leadership overestimates the Russian military's own capabilities," according to the ISW analysis.

Such an overestimation had already taken place at the beginning of the war.

The Kremlin had apparently assumed that it would be able to take the Ukrainian capital within a few days.

But the Russian army had to withdraw completely from northern Ukraine after a few weeks.

In the past, experts have repeatedly come to the conclusion that Russian soldiers in Ukraine lack motivation.

While Ukrainian soldiers go to battle for their homeland and families, Russian recruits don't even understand the motives behind the war.

This is partly due to the fact that the Kremlin's goals have never been clearly defined.

In addition, Putin still refuses to describe the Ukraine war as such.

US experts: Russia's capabilities for successful offensive in Ukraine questionable

In recent months, the Russian army has become increasingly dependent on the mercenaries of the Wagner group.

According to reports, Wagner mercenaries were primarily responsible for the capture of the city of Soledar.

The capture of the small Ukrainian town was the first military success of Russian troops in Ukraine for several months.

However, the military successes are offset by extremely high losses in the ranks of the Wagner mercenaries.

US sources speak of over 4,000 dead and more than 10,000 injured.

However, according to the ISW, it is unlikely "that the Russian conventional military will be prepared to accept these kinds of terrible losses." questionable”, is the conclusion of the ISW experts.

Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness

Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness

Opportunity for Ukraine: Military experts see Kyiv in a "good position" for a counter-offensive

According to the think tank's assessment, a decisive success of the Russian troops in a possible offensive is extremely unlikely.

On the contrary, a failed offensive could even play into the hands of the Ukrainian troops.

"Ukraine will very likely be in a good position to mount successful counter-offensives after the peak of the Russian offensives before or during the spring rainy season - always provided that the Ukrainians do not forestall the Russian offensives with a counter-offensive," the report reads ISW status report.

In such a counter-offensive, Kyiv could then probably fall back on modern battle tanks.

List of rubrics: © MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/AFP