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Slight wind of optimism on the global economy

2023-01-31T01:58:54.115Z


Global GDP growth could reach 2.9% in 2023, a little more than expected in October, predicts the IMF.


Glass half empty or half full?

It's all, of course, in how you look at the situation.

On the optimistic side, growth in 2023 will be a bit more dynamic than expected, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts today.

From October to January, the Fund revised its forecasts for the global economy upwards by 0.2 points, which should see its GDP grow by 2.9%.

This improvement in activity will benefit, in the advanced countries, mainly the United States (+0.4 compared to October forecasts), Germany (+0.4) and even more so Italy ( +0.8).

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The downside risks to the economic outlook continue to dominate, but they have diminished

,” the IMF points out.

A resurgence linked to pent-up demand in many countries is plausible, or a faster decline in inflation

,” adds the organization.

For

France

, the forecasts do not change.

GDP should show growth of 0.7% this year, the same level now as that of the euro zone, predicts the IMF.

The Banque de France is less optimistic since it forecasts a 0.3% increase in GDP in 2023. The French government is more so: it is betting on a 1% increase in GDP.

No improvement in sight, however, for the

United Kingdom

.

It is the only nation, among the advanced economies and the main emerging countries, which should show a recession of 0.6% this year, notes the IMF, which has revised its forecasts down 0.9 points for the Great -Brittany.

The case of

Russia

is unique.

The Fund is revising its forecasts up 2.6% in 2023 for the country of Vladimir Putin and thus expects growth of 0.3%.

This rebound comes after a recession, much weaker according to the IMF than other international organizations.

The fund that watches over the world economy estimates that Russian GDP fell by only 2.2% in 2022 while the World Bank, for example, estimates it at 3.5%.

The difference is even more marked for this year, with the World Bank forecasting a further decline in Russian GDP of 3.3%.

Severe slowdown

On the empty glass side, however, it should be remembered that even if the global economy is doing better than expected this year, GDP growth should suffer a severe slowdown compared to last year.

In the euro zone, the IMF predicts, growth will decline from +3.5% in 2022 to +0.7% this year.

For “advanced” countries, it should fall from +2.7% to +1.2%.

In

China

, where growth is expected to reach 5.2% in 2023, the IMF revised its data up by 0.8 points.

But he recalls that the worsening of the health situation in the former Middle Empire could “

Hinder the recovery

”.

Just as “

the war could intensify in Ukraine and the tightening of financing conditions on a global scale accentuate the over-indebtedness

”.

Source: lefigaro

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