Recently, Germany dropped the informal principle of "not exporting offensive weapons to the battlefield" and decided to provide Ukraine with its "Leopard 2" main battle tank. The Social Democratic Party Prime Minister Olaf Scholz, who represented him, could not bear the pressure and turned to Ukraine.
However, in Germany, which has always focused on the interests of domestic export industries, the former finance minister's decision may be based on commercial considerations.
For a long time, Germany's "Leopard 2" has also been a representative of main battle tanks (MBT) popular in European countries. There are more than 2,000 in total. ), as well as the M1 tanks (M1 Abrams) of the United States, do not take European countries as export markets.
Since the Russo-Ukraine war started on February 24 last year, "tank aid to Ukraine" has been Ukraine's main appeal.
At first, a number of former Warsaw Pact countries sent their Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine, but later, as the production of parts and ammunition failed to keep up with demand, the calls for Ukraine to use NATO standard tanks became louder and louder.
Among them, the most obvious choice is the German "Leopard 2", but Germany has repeatedly declined, and is unwilling to authorize other countries with "Leopard 2" to "re-export" tanks to Ukraine.
This obstacle has greatly affected the confidence of many European countries in continuing to purchase German weapons: how can a country buy weapons but cannot use them at will according to its own judgment on national security, isn't it useless?
Among them, Poland, which has always been tough on Russia, may have become the biggest commercial consideration for Germany's transfer.
Polish soldiers receive training on Leopard 2 maintenance.
(Reuters)
Poland's strong army loses a big guest to Germany
In the European Union, apart from Greece, which borders many non-EU Balkan countries and is hostile to Turkey to the east, Poland retains the largest main battle tank team.
The reason why Poland maintains a strong army is of course its national security considerations. After all, the east of Poland is the Belarusian Lukashenko regime that has relied on Russia for many years. Its northeast also borders on Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave. , and between Kaliningrad and Belarus there is the Suwalki Gap (Suwalki Gap) with a width of less than 70 kilometers. Once the corridor is broken, the three Baltic countries will be cut off from NATO countries immediately, and they will easily become Russia. things.
After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Poland's long-standing misgivings about Russia were confirmed.
Although Poland has always attached importance to US military assistance, under the shadow of the resurgence of US isolationism, "relying on its own" is probably the most rational way out.
This Monday (January 30), Poland announced that it would further increase its military expenditure, which originally accounted for 2.4% of GDP, to a level of 4%.
The red line in the picture is the Suwalki Gap.
Kaliningrad, Russian enclave, upper left; Poland, lower left; Lithuania, upper right; Belarus, lower right.
(Wikimedia Commons)
Of course, Europe's military autonomy has always been represented by France, but in the eyes of France, military autonomy has never been aimed at the threat from the East from Russia, but that Europe has the ability to operate independently of the United States, and even has a military force like the United States. Global projection capability.
Therefore, the development of European-based armaments led by it is also the "Future Air Combat System" (FCAS) of Franco-German cooperation that attracts the most attention, while the "Main Ground Combat System" (MGCS) is often ignored.
(The latter also had no Polish participation.)
But in fact, in addition to France's own overseas military operations also relying on the support of US air refueling and other capabilities, Germany's interest in the "future air combat system" is also questionable. After increasing military spending, its first move is to purchase F-35s from the United States across the Atlantic.
Seeing that the German government has evaded its military aid since last year, Poland hastened to purchase the "Leopard 2" replacement.
In August 2022, Poland signed a contract with the United States to purchase 250 M1 tanks, which was the first case of introducing M1 tanks into a European country-M1 can be regarded as entering the "back garden" of Germany's "Leopard 2" through this.
German Chancellor Scholz inspects a Bundeswehr base in Bergen and speaks in front of a Leopard 2 main battle tank.
(Reuters)
As Poland sent its Soviet-made T-72 main battle tanks to Ukraine, the United States also agreed to sell 116 M1s to Poland in January this year, and will start sending them to Poland along with related equipment and logistics this year.
Although the M1 uses a jet engine, consumes aviation fuel, and is more difficult to maintain than the "Leopard 2" that uses a diesel engine, as long as the logistics facilities and technology for the M1 are gradually established in Poland, other European countries may also switch to the M1 in the future.
After all, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Morocco, Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries have always been loyal users of M1. It can be seen that it is only a matter of determination and time to overcome the logistical difficulties of M1.
South Korea flexes its muscles in Europe
At present, in the western market in a broad sense, in addition to the American M1, German "Leopard 2", British "Challenger 2", and French "Leclerc", another new star that has not been tested by war is South Korea's "K2 Black Panther" ( K2 Black Panther).
Unlike the United States, South Korea's main battle tank exports are often willing to attract customers through technology transfer.
Since South Korea began to develop its own main battle tank technology in the mid-1990s, its K2 Black Date was favored by Turkey in 2007, making it the first export customer of K2.
After years of cooperation, "Altay" (Altay), which is locally produced in Turkey based on the K2 blueprint, is expected to be put into service this year.
South Korea's "K2 Black Panther" main battle tank.
(Wikimedia Commons)
Poland, which also seeks independence in armaments, of course also saw the choice of the K2 black pact.
When it purchased hundreds of M1s from the United States, Poland also signed a black contract with South Korea last year to purchase 1,000 K2s, 672 K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers (K9 Thunder) and other large weapons orders. In theory, it is still at war. South Korea also supplied goods very quickly, and the first batch of weapons was handed over to Poland in December last year.
Although the arms exported by South Korea may also be subject to re-export restrictions, South Korea clearly has an "open eye and closed eye" attitude towards its principle of "not exporting arms to conflict areas".
In November last year, when the production of European and American artillery shells could not catch up with the consumption rate of Ukraine, it was reported that the United States was purchasing 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition from South Korea to supply Ukraine.
The Reuters report at the time quoted the Ministry of National Defense of South Korea as saying that South Korea’s position on not supplying weapons to Ukraine remains unchanged, and that its negotiations with the United States were conducted on the premise that “the United States is the end user.”
Similar to the Korean-Turkish cooperation, the contract between Poland and South Korea "Hyundai Rotem" (Hyundai Rotem) and "Hanwha Defense" (Hanwha Defense) includes the terms of starting production of K2 Black Pact and K9 howitzers in Poland from 2026, and will also The construction of advanced maintenance facilities for the K9 in Poland has given the Polish Army greater autonomy.
In 2011, the Iraqi army demonstrated its M1 tank.
(Wikimedia Commons)
The establishment of these production and maintenance facilities will also increase the attractiveness of Korean weapons such as K2 in the European market.
In fact, before the Russo-Ukraine war, it was reported that both Slovakia and Norway had considered importing K2 black contracts.
Some analysts believe that the final total value of this cooperation between Poland and South Korea will be as high as 15 billion US dollars.
Although South Korea's arms export has expanded significantly in recent years (from 2000 to 2020, South Korea has changed from the 31st largest arms exporter in the world to the seventh largest), this cooperation is also a symbolic progress-in 2021, South Korea's defense export total Worth only $7 billion.
As Poland expands its army, it is expected that by the 2030s, Poland's tank force will become the strongest and most powerful among NATO countries in Europe, and its total will exceed the sum of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy.
At that time, Poland, which can produce advanced main battle tanks locally, may also become the main supplier of main battle tanks in Europe, replacing Germany.
In the face of short-term challenges from South Korea and long-term challenges from Poland, in order to protect the European market position of its tank industry, can the mercantile German government not comply with the original customer's request and allow the "Leopard 2" to be exported to Ukraine?
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