Nobody will be able to oppose a mediation like the one that Lula proposes.
The difficulty lies in the moment, the conditions and, above all, the matter of the negotiation that must be promoted, that is, the concessions that both parties can and must make, an issue in which the disagreement is absolute.
This is the point where Russia and Ukraine meet, both willing to continue with the invasion the first and defending the second.
Putin only wants to negotiate based on the conquered and annexed territories, which he considers fait accompli and non-negotiable.
Once the premise is accepted, he opens up to negotiating the cessation of hostilities and the bombings.
And then, perhaps kyiv's accession to the European Union, but not to NATO, and of course the final borders.
I mean, nothing at all.
Or if it is something, a political victory based on his military defeat.
You could organize a parade in Red Square to celebrate.
It would be the prologue to the resumption of the war, as has happened on other occasions, the most notable being the Munich summit in 1938. No one can consecrate a modification of borders by force.
He shows that this is the format of the negotiation between NATO and the Kremlin, but without Ukraine, that Putin proposes.
Like the Czechoslovakia handed over by Chamberlain to Hitler in the name of peace, an infamous operation that led to European and world war and must not be repeated now.
If it were the case of territorial cessions or changes in the legal status of Crimea or Donbas, no one can rob the kyiv government of the exclusive right to decide on its own in a discussion that affects its Constitution.
His requirement is the opposite:
there is nothing to negotiate without the prior withdrawal of Russian troops from the entire territory.
A mere ceasefire might pave the way, but it should not be the subject of negotiation.
In any case, there is substance to talk about, fundamentally about security and disarmament.
From each other.
And about the guarantees, which everyone demands and needs.
Ukraine that it will not be attacked again by Russia.
Russia that near its borders the stationing of troops will be restricted and missiles will not be installed.
Putin will want Crimea, with the imperial argument of Sevastopol, the naval port of his southern fleet, but Zelensky will demand the disarmament of the peninsula to prevent future attacks from there on his territory or territorial waters.
The disarmament agreements in Europe between Reagan and Gorbachev in the 1980s led to the end of the Cold War,
and now only new agreements could prevent the second Cold War and end the hot one.
All very difficult, if we add the open and incurable wounds of the invasion, the destruction, the war crimes and the certainty that peace cannot come, and therefore the lifting of sanctions on Russia and normalization, without the punishment of the culprits and the reparation of the damage perpetrated.
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