Opinion In Sudan, the temporary is the permanent | Israel today

The warming of relations with Israel meets Sudan in one of the most sensitive periods in its history.

In the two and a half years that have passed since the normalization with Israel, Khartoum has witnessed huge demonstrations against the government, and the coup carried out by General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan about a year and a half ago, when he deposed the prime minister.

At times it seemed that, as in the Arab countries, the wheel of democracy would turn back all the way back to full military dictatorship.

But in recent months, nothing happened in Sudan.

A new agreement was reached between the army and the civil authorities.

On December 5, the army, the Forces for the Proclamation of Freedom and Change and other political forces signed a framework agreement for the establishment of a civilian government, which will manage the democratization process for a period of two years.

At the end of this period, free and transparent elections should be held.

A protester in Khartoum throws back any tear gas fired by the security forces to disperse the march (archive), photo: Faiz Abubakar

Accordingly, in January, al-Burhan stated in a speech to his supporters that the military establishment undertakes not to interfere in Sudan's transition process.

"The military establishment will never hold any role in the transition or the process of the Sudanese democratic transition," the general assured the cheering crowd.

On that occasion, al-Burhan even wished for the establishment of a real civilian government that would reflect the aspirations of the Sudanese people.

However, one comment in the speech betrayed his true view of the role the army is supposed to play: "The armed forces express part of the state's forces which should all participate in its management."

According to him, the armed forces will be subject to the transitional authority that will lead elections "sooner or later".

I mean, the military is still here to stay.

And when will the Sudanese go to the polls?

This is a more complex question.

Military coup in Sudan // Photo: Reuters

Dr. Sami Abdel Halim is the director of the Sudan program at the International Institute for Democracy and Elections. Today (Thursday) he published an article in which he explained the constitutional difficulties facing Sudan on the way to the polls. -2019; when the famous Sovereign Council was established, which seated generals, protest leaders and heads of armed organizations around one table.

According to him, there are three options that are on the table to lead to elections: amending the constitutional document, speeding up the process for drafting a permanent constitution or delaying the elections indefinitely until a permanent constitution is formulated.

The third option, in his estimation, could damage the legitimacy of the temporary institutions - and lead to a military coup against the constitution.

After the coup carried out by al-Burhan in 2021, he encountered a dilemma.

Backing from the West requires, at the very least, an outward pretense of democratization or reforms in the field of human rights.

Like the dictator Bashir, he was forced to align with the West in the face of the threat of sanctions.

A poor country like Sudan cannot afford a frontal confrontation with the West.

Indeed, Al-Burhan provided the goods in the last agreement.

But as long as holding elections requires the drafting of a constitution or the establishment of electoral institutions, he does not need to make such an effort to continue holding the actual steering wheel.

In today's Sudan, the temporary is the permanent.

Relations with Israel were also characterized by this.

Sudan did not fully join the Abraham Accords in September 2020, but following a three-way phone call between Trump, Netanyahu and Al-Burhan, the state of war officially ended.

For years, Sudan was an ally of Iran and even hosted elements of Hamas, which it got rid of in recent years.

In that phone call, it was also agreed that an agreement would be signed between Jerusalem and Khartoum.

However, the destabilization of the country in the shadow of the mass protest stopped the completion of the process.

Now, the temporary government of al-Burhan is expected to complete the temporary understandings with Israel and establish them.

Once again in Sudan, the temporary becomes permanent.

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