Russia continues to pursue its minimum goal in the Ukraine war: conquering the Donbass.
But what happens next?
Kyiv/Moscow – A few days before the first anniversary of the Ukraine war, the international community is increasing the pressure on Russia: Ukraine is receiving numerous tanks from western allies.
The changed military situation in the Ukraine conflict is apparently prompting a reaction from the Kremlin: a new offensive is to be launched by spring at the latest.
For Christian Mölling and András Rácz, experts from the German Society for Foreign Policy, this is imminent.
In an analysis for
ZDF
, they forecast this “in the coming weeks”.
In addition to the aspect of the anniversary of the Russian invasion on February 24, the combination of Ukrainian rearmament and Russian losses play a decisive role, according to the experts.
“In particular, tanks and armored vehicles are already in short supply in Russia.
Therefore, even before the arrival of the new western supplies, Moscow has to take a decisive step,” the analysis reads.
Russia is probably planning a new offensive in the Ukraine war
The losses could be offset by conscripts who were drafted back in November and will be ready for action from February.
Logistics in particular could therefore benefit from this.
According to the experts, the target of the offensive is once again the Donbass, in eastern Ukraine.
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A Ukrainian soldier from an artillery unit reacts as he fires at Russian positions on the outskirts of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine December 30.
© Sameer Al-Doumy / AFP
The region has been war-torn since last February.
There is a strategic interest behind a possible conquest of Russia, which has already failed several times: The Donbass is part of a land connection to the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula.
This is also confirmed by the two experts from the German Society for Foreign Relations: “The Kremlin has long strived to gain control over the entire region.
In addition, an extremely large amount of resources have already been allocated to this task – a decisive shift in focus is therefore extremely unlikely given the state of affairs at the beginning of February.”
Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness
Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also expects Russia to react quickly to the tank deliveries from the West.
Vladimir Putin's "great revenge" has begun, he said, according to the TV channel
Al Jazeera
.
“I believe that Russia really wants its great revenge.
I think they've already started," Zelenskyy said.
Russia in the Ukraine war: Putin's motive is apparently revenge
The Russian attacks in the east are relentless despite heavy losses on the Russian side.
Putin's motive is retaliation, driven by propaganda.
Among other things, the Kremlin has been claiming for some time that it is merely “liberating” Ukraine.
Editor's note
The information comes partly from warring factions in the Ukraine conflict.
Some of them cannot be directly and independently verified.
At the same time as the offensive plans in Ukraine, Putin is constructing an alleged dangerous situation in Russia.
According to an analysis by the think tank "Institute for the Study of War", the Russian President wants to prepare the population for further investments in the Ukraine war.
At the beginning of the invasion, Putin promised the population that the war would be won within 15 days.
Subsequent forecasts also failed.
(do)
Rubric list image: © Sameer Al-Doumy / AFP