At the first interest rate meeting in the United States this year, the interest rate increase narrowed to the usual standard of 0.25%. This cycle of interest rate hikes has accumulated 8 times since last year, and the rate increase has increased to 4.5%. Wang Meifeng, Managing Director of Centaline Mortgage ( 2) said that the U.S. inflation rate has shown a monthly downward trend, and the rate of increase from the peak of the U.S. interest rate is expected to be only about 0.5%. Peak.
She pointed out that after the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle, the interest rate will run rampant for a period of time, waiting for the inflation rate to gradually fall back to the target level of 2%. If the economic trend continues to weaken, the U.S. interest rate may accelerate its U-turn and fall within the year.
Hong Kong dollar interbank rate "falls instead of rising" for several days
In terms of Hong Kong interest rates, Wang Meifeng pointed out that the iconic HSBC Bank announced that it will keep the prime rate (P) unchanged at 5.625%, bringing good news to the market. It is expected that other banks will follow suit, and the market interest rate will remain mainly at 3.375% to the 3.475% level.
Wang Meifeng explained that the recent one-month HIBOR related to property mortgages has fallen from a high of more than 5% to 2.53% after the year-end factor. The US interest rate hike is approaching, and the US dollar interbank interest rate has risen. As of today However, it still fell instead of rising for several days, and fell back to the U.S. interest rate, which was significantly widened by 2%, reflecting the abundance of Hong Kong dollar funds. It is believed that the recent financial and investment environment has attracted funds to stay in Hong Kong, which has widened the gap between the interbank rate and the prime rate to 3.1 Therefore, there is no need for banks to further increase deposit and loan interest rates, and the prime interest rate P remains unchanged.
Wang Meifeng continued to point out that the U.S. interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end. Whether the Hong Kong interest rate adjustment has been completed early still depends on the future trend of interbank interest rates, capital flows and levels. It is expected that the market funds will remain abundant, and it is not ruled out that the cycle of interest rate hikes in Hong Kong may have ended. I believe that even if it is necessary to increase P within this year, it will only be added once.
Wang Meifeng said that Hong Kong has benefited from factors such as the gradual lifting of epidemic prevention measures, the resumption of customs clearance, and the peak interest rate. The market sentiment has picked up, and the property market has increased significantly. Maintaining the current level will bring further good news to the market.
In fact, in this cycle of interest rate hikes, banks in Hong Kong have lagged behind the U.S. interest rate hike (the U.S. rate hike is 4.5% and Hong Kong P plus 0.625%). Therefore, the outlook for the property market is improving. I believe the market has fully digested the impact of the rate hike.
Wang Meifeng.
U.S. interest rate hike｜Meridian: The mortgage burden has not increased yet, which has positive support for the housing market The property market has positive news about US interest rate hike｜Star Valley: Bank of Hong Kong may not follow the Fed to increase P, and the US interest rate hike cycle is expected to come to an end
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