ANALYSIS | The drama of the alleged Chinese spy balloon is the worst preview of the expected visit of Blinken to China

(CNN) --

It's hard to imagine a worse precedent for the crucial talks Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to hold in Beijing in the coming days than the news that an alleged Chinese spy balloon is floating merrily across US skies. USA

The Pentagon says it has been tracking the balloon for several days — it's the size of three buses — according to a defense official, eventually making the decision not to shoot it down.

The reasoning was that the balloon was hovering well above commercial and military air routes, and that it was not a major intelligence threat.

It seems like a reasonable position since Chinese surveillance satellites with far greater spy capabilities are known to hover in space over the US. And officials said it's not the first time the US has tracked one of the balloons. Beijing during this Government and the previous ones.

• Balloons, hackers, infiltrators and Soviet-era techniques: these are some of the recent cases of espionage in the US.

This is not a DEFCON-1 situation.

But the globe offers a perfect look into one of the most destructive factors driving the United States and China into confrontation.

The politics behind the world's most critical geopolitical relationship are so tense in both countries that any incident can trigger a new round of recriminations.

That is what Blinken will address on his trip to Beijing.

Washington is already in an uproar.

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Ever ready to portray President Joe Biden as 'soft' on China despite the fact that he has actually been at least as tough as former President Donald Trump, Republicans are up in arms over what they describe as a violation of American sovereignty.

“The information strongly suggests that the (Defense) department did not act urgently to respond to this interference with airspace by a high-altitude surveillance balloon.

Any incursion should not be ignored and should be dealt with appropriately,” said Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy — who already warned China this week that it cannot stop it from visiting Taiwan — has demanded a briefing on the globe for the Gang of Eight congressional leaders.

A suspected Chinese high-altitude balloon floats over Billings, Montana, on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. (Larry Mayer/The Billings Gazette via AP)

"China's blatant disregard for US sovereignty is a destabilizing action that must be addressed and President Biden cannot remain silent," the California Republican said.

It is fair to wonder why China would send a spy balloon to the US ahead of Blinken's crucial visit, with both sides apparently anxious to avoid a dangerous nosedive in their relations.

It seems much less likely that this was a deliberate provocation, as there are reasons to think that China wants to turn down the heat as well.

Perhaps Beijing has lost control of the globe.

Still, if an American balloon were flying over mainland China right now, the government of President Xi Jinping would likely be looking to get maximum propaganda value out of the incident.

China's Foreign Ministry said Friday it was aware of reports of the incident but warned against "deliberate speculation."

“China is a responsible country.

We act in accordance with international law.

We have no intention of violating the airspace of other countries.

We hope the relevant parties will handle the matter with a cool head," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said.

Meanwhile, Canada said late Thursday that it is also tracking the balloon's movements and working with its US partners, including following up on a possible second incident.

Regarding the Blinken talks, there seemed to be a small window for improving relations between the long and tense period that led to Xi securing a third term by breaking the rules — which may have contributed to a Chinese nationalist attitude that worsened relations. tensions with the US—and the subsequent US presidential election.

(White House contests almost always degenerate into attacks on China that infuriate Beijing.)

• ANALYSIS |

  What is an alleged Chinese spy balloon doing over the US?

But the atmosphere around the talks had already soured by a memo from US Air Force General Michael Minihan reported by NBC last week, in which he said his "intuition" told him he had to be ready for war with China, and not just in theory, but in two years.

That prediction does not align with US government assessments of the geopolitical struggle in the Pacific or necessarily with events in the region.

But it showed how a series of isolated events can escalate tensions between China and the United States.

Now, floating above that fiery atmosphere, we have a Chinese spy balloon.

This incident may well be innocuous, but it's another small drama that will not only overshadow Blinken's trip, but will further fan the political flames that are raising the hawks in Washington and Beijing who see what they want to see: an inevitable march to the bottom. conflict and make that dangerous scenario more likely.

Anthony Blinken