Marina dal Poggetto coined what was among economists the hit of the summer.
She spoke of
the galley rabbits that Sergio Massa could turn to.
But at the end of January and after the Pyrrhic victory with the debt repurchase, with the aim of intervening in the exchange market to reduce the gap and which had the opposite effect, the economist deduces: "
Wizards don't have many rabbits, at most two ”
In his view, inflation is darkening his outlook.
"We calculate the index for January at
5.9% and February is on the rise with the rise in meat that every 10%
adds one point to that index."
He explains to his clients that the sheet is too short with an offer of dollars that is reduced this year by US$20,000 million, due to the drought and a lower withdrawal of funds from the IMF.
"The plan to come from the minister is going to be
limited to the administration of commerce
This is more stocks.
The bankers relativize the lack of dollars and are betting that the loan called Repo, which has a high cost, will be obtained.
They will have to offer a guarantee of US$ 3,000 million to obtain US$ 1,000 million.
The economist Marina Dal Poggetto.
Photo Lucia Merle
That sector is convulsed by its own loans to the State.
That reality and the technological revolution have an impact.
Of the 312 entities that were counted in the 80s, 77 remain
in full transformation with massive closure of branches, voluntary withdrawals and early retirement.
, La Bancaria directed by Sergio Palazzo, a trade unionist assigned to minor positions in the CGT, a former radical and pro-government deputy,
does not make waves.
"He is pragmatic"
, defined the owner of a foreign bank.
The industrialists are preparing for what they call the climate of exacerbation in March, with the return to classes, supply problems in the production chains, the start of parities and the political campaign.
In that circle they release that
the main credibility problem for Massa is inflation.
In what were negotiations that consumed the whole of January, the Secretary of Commerce Matías Tombolini did not speak of a plan.
He was sincere:
"We only have a roadmap that consists of lowering the deficit, taking care of the dollars and accumulating reserves
Secretary of Commerce Matías Tombolini
This Friday and before the number one there will be a launch show at the CCK for an agreement that includes 50,000 products ranging from remedies to cell phones, in addition to the basic basket items.
For the controls, they set up a
monitoring table at the Secretariat of Commerce that will meet daily at 8:30.
In the companies there is a certain resignation that decreases before the official promise of access to official foreign currency for imports.
But there are prices that escape them.
This is the case of meat, which due to the drought barely moved 42% compared to inflation of 94.8% in 2022 and threatens to become a headache for a long time.
The expert Bernardo Cané warns that the calves that were born in the winter and are weaned in March
suffered from drought, heat stroke and poor nutrition
from their mothers and will come out with 15 to 20 kilos less than the historical weight of 170 kilos.
In turn, the cows, for almost the same reasons, will not become pregnant in the next spring services.
There will be fewer calves in 2024. "This is one of the reasons but there may
be other triggers
in an economy where pizza or ice cream triple the value of the loin."
In this scenario, the modernization of commerce was reversed, which will continue with the half beef on its shoulder.
The room system was proposed in 1991. It not only points to health, but also to the prices at the counter being set rationally and not based on the small scale of the busy butcher shops in which this family business does not sink.
The Brazilians from Marfrig, world kings of the refrigeration business, who have grown in terms of work and brand after the acquisition, among others, of the local Campos del Tesoro, do not understand.
The same happens with Minerva, the other Brazilian giant, directed by the former Coto Martín di Giacomo and with the people of Gorina, of national capitals under the baton of the accountant Carlos Riusech.
He transcended that in the cold rooms there are some 10,000 tons stored
, 2.5% of total exports.
Will a dollar meat come?
The same thing happens with pears and apples in the South.
There is talk of a $260 dollar special.
Of course, what works like clockwork is the gas pipeline that will be ready on June 20 or July 9 if everything goes as it has been up to now.
Of course, it is not a panacea since it will be able to transport 11 million cubic meters per day and it will rise to 19 million when the compression plants are ready.
In the winter the daily consumption of gas jumps to 90 million cubic meters.
A part is provided by the current system, but
about 30 million cubic meters will be missing.
In this area, the businessmen highlight how they aligned themselves around Massa, unlike what happened with the Guzmán administration.
In Energy there are plenty of people from Santa Cruz and Agustín Gerez, head of Enarsa, is the best expression of the framework.
Federico Basualdo, who became famous for the obstacles to the rate adjustment that Martín Guzmán sought, went home and called for silence.
With a certain irony, someone recalled Stendhal's character in the Parma Charterhouse:
"He had never had the talent of public affairs, his management was slow and complicated."
On the other hand, former minister Guzmán seems to be very determined to come out of ostracism.
His think tank is already based in the Microcentro, it still lacks the name.
Let's go back to energy,
of this administration: negotiations have already started with Techint for the reversal of the TGN gas pipeline given the imminent decline of Bolivian gas and the danger that the thermal power plants in the North will run out of fuel.
In the Transportadora de Gas del Sur there are also projects.
This week they turned 30 and one of their executives slipped that
their contracts were only respected for 9 years.
Whoever did not respect the word went to Darío Martínez, the former Secretary of Energy who returned to Neuquén with the promise of being a candidate for governor for the justicialismo.
They console him as a candidate for deputy.
Will the bill for Liquefied Natural Gas suffer the same fate?
The president of YPF, Pablo González, closed an agreement with Petronas of Malaysia that involves billions of dollars.
he leaves for India for the seminar that brings together the great players
In turn, India is interested in Argentine oil and this is what explains a meeting with Shri Hardeep Singh, the powerful minister of oil and natural gas.
Of course, as soon as agricultural activity resumes, there will be a
lack of diesel
, but not in the volumes of last year.
Something was learned.
"On the bioethanol side, a prompt redistribution of quotas is expected by the Ministry of Energy, between those corresponding to the sugar industry and those for corn, while Agriculture and Energy analyze the possibility of increasing the mixtures from the current 12%, up to 15%”, says the consultant Claudio Molina, observing that “we are not working properly to prevent a crisis from occurring again this year.
Lack of planning."
There are some who do have plans.
This is the case of Juan Carlos Bojanich, an accountant by profession and whose family made their fortune from the industrial bakery that supplied the Argentine Navy, at the Puerto Belgrano Naval Base.
He owns bingo halls in several of the most important cities in the province and accounts for ten biodiesel plants.
seeks to land on ethanol.
Like so many others in the business world, Bojanich has his chips on both sides of the crack.
The bingos explain
his solid relationship with Daniel Angelici from Cambiemos.
Her tune with Máximo Kirchner is also well known
Perhaps, due to its permanent confrontation and harshness in its forms, as described by its competitors.
This week and in his appearance before Horacio Rodríguez Larreta's teams, Martin Redrado spoke about the opportunities offered to the country by near shoring, that is, short production chains, the modality that arose to the beat of the pandemic.
Redrado, advisor to the Central Bank of Malaysia, referred to that area of Asia Pacific demanding what the country offers.
And he assured that it is possible to recover credibility with laws that support an economic policy of stability and growth.
In that, someone questioned him: "Martín, what do foreign investors ask you?"
It doesn't matter who is in government.
They want to know at what exchange rate they take the investment and if they will be able to dispose of their money later
, was the forceful response.