Guillermo Lasso measures his approval in a consultation on security after the year with the most murders in the history of Ecuador

Posters of the campaign against the popular consultation that is held on Sunday in Ecuador. RODRIGO BUENDIA (AFP)

The president of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, has been governing for 18 months without support in Congress and with death threats, a formula similar to the motion of no confidence, since the beginning of his administration, but this Sunday, February 5, in the elections municipal governments, he hopes to revalidate his approval through a referendum and force the opposition to back down on some key reforms.

For that, he has resorted to the great public concern -and at the same time his Achilles heel- which is security to measure his support.

The figures for the last year are the bloodiest in the country's history: 4,550 crimes, which places Ecuador as one of the most violent countries in Latin America with a rate of 25 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, and the popular consultation announced as a solution to the problems of Ecuadorians, raises eight questions of which only one deals with security.

Historically in Ecuador, referendums have served to capitalize on the support of government efforts, but this time the president is betting on doing so in a complex electoral process.

Ecuadorians will receive seven ballots because they will have to vote for mayors, prefects, advisers of the controversial Citizen Participation Council, which is the body that designates key authorities of the country's institutions, such as prosecutor, comptroller, bank superintendent and also, the ballot of the query.

“The greatest risk that the government has is that the referendum wins,” says Pedro Donoso, a political analyst, “because of the way in which they have positioned the expectation that the problem of insecurity will end with the referendum and we all know that It won't be like that," he adds.

Above all because the Government fails to manage expectations well.

“Months ago, Lasso announced the end of the pandemic in Ecuador and in December the infection indicators skyrocketed.

He announced the withdrawal of the Schengen visa and it was not possible, he announced a Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and it did not happen ”, explains Donoso.

And if the vote is yes in the referendum, the scenario would be exactly that, because most of the amendments involve legal reforms that have deadlines, between being processed and approved, some could take a year and others up to two;

that is, when President Lasso has finished his term.

But in the face of an Administration that accumulates great discontent and wear and tear, the president wants Ecuadorians to go to the polls to decide, for example, extradition, changes in the justice system, reducing the number of legislators in Congress, protecting the environment ambient.

The hooking question to motivate the yes is to remove the constitutional lock on the extradition of Ecuadorians linked to transnational organized crime.

"In this way, the story of the war against drugs is legitimized and that they are going to manage to send the bosses of the criminal structures so that other countries can judge them," explains Luis Carlos Córdova, director of the Order, Conflict and Investigation Program. Violence of the Central University.

There are 222 Ecuadorians with a red notice from Interpol who are wanted in 17 countries for having committed crimes related to drug trafficking, crimes against children, money laundering, arms and explosives trafficking.

Although the consultation proposed by the Executive limits extradition for those who are proven to be linked to transnational organized crime.

But "crime not only has to do with drug trafficking, but also with poverty and unemployment, and the referendum is not going to solve it," says Donoso, and the investment so far in the social sector seems not to be enough, in a country where only three out of 10 people have adequate employment, 25% of the population is poor and 8% extremely poor, according to data from the Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) as of December 2022.

Questions three, five and six of the referendum refer to the functioning of the political system, but for analysts, none of them attack the substantive issues, so the country will change very little compared to the current reality.

Question number three proposes reducing the number of legislators from 137 to approximately 100.

According to Lasso, "by reducing the number of legislators, we will also increase control, surveillance, and demands on them."

However, reducing political representation "would concentrate representation in those parties with more sophisticated machinery such as the Citizens' Revolution [of former President Rafael Correa] and an emerging right," Córdova explains.

This question also presents contradictions with questions five and six in which the Executive would hand over more powers to a Congress that enjoys little prestige and that is its main opposition front.

The questions are intended to return to the legislators the power to elect the important authorities of various State institutions, a competence that the Citizen Participation Council now has, an organization that also wants to reform in the consultation by asking at the polls that instead of the councilors they are elected by popular vote, it is the Congress -which criticizes- that chooses them.

“This has always been political loot, which can facilitate negotiations behind the scenes,” Cordova concludes.

"The government has a very narrow field this year, which is why it is taking a risk with this consultation, because it knows that only an electoral victory would help to varnish legitimacy, everything that it has delegitimized on the way to the first year of government," he adds, but In this way, they would have oxygen to apply a security strategy that until now has not existed and is the main concern of Ecuadorians.

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