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Is there a conflagration in the Western Balkans? "Putin's war in Ukraine is a game changer"

2023-02-04T12:19:07.657Z


In recent years, Russia has steadily expanded its influence in the Western Balkans. Up to Putin's invasion war in Ukraine.


In recent years, Russia has steadily expanded its influence in the Western Balkans.

Up to Putin's invasion war in Ukraine.

Sarajevo/Cologne – Shortly before Christmas, the situation in the Western Balkans threatened to escalate.

Militants from the Serb-populated north of Kosovo set up roadblocks in the divided city of Mitrovica.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić put his army on high alert.

But the EU put significant pressure on Serbia.

A Franco-German plan provides for the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina.

And they gave Serbia's president a choice: either he accepts the plan or there is a risk that investments will be withdrawn and the EU accession negotiations will be broken off.

IPPEN.MEDIA 's

Münchner Merkur

spoke to

Christian Schmidt (CSU), the senior representative of neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina,

about the complex situation in the Western Balkans, Vladimir Putin's influence and the role of the EU .

Kosovo: EU is putting Serbia under pressure – currently there is no risk of a conflagration in the western Balkans

How do you assess the current turnaround in the Kosovo conflict?

Serbian President Vučić indicated that he would accept the Franco-German plan.

The situation in Kosovo is changing, the Franco-German proposal seems to be a good basis.

At the moment I don't have the impression that the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo could lead to a conflagration in the western Balkans.

But we know that this can change very quickly in this region.

However, compared to the blockade situation in December, we are now seeing a great deal of progress.

Did the Serbian President's reaction surprise you?

Vučić is actually considered to be close to Russia, not an EU peace ambassador.

No, that didn't surprise me, apart from his friendly public appearance on the matter.

I didn't expect him to phrase his suggestion that he would give in to the Kosovo dispute and accept the Franco-German plan for normalizing relations so calmly.

But he seems to understand that by accepting the proposal he is gaining a strategic advantage.

Because if he declines, he wouldn't have many other options.

But the problems for Vučić are only just beginning: a high degree of cooperation with Kosovo institutions is required.

A complete negation of the existence of Kosovo is no longer possible.

Now it remains to be seen how the Kosovan government will behave.

They suggest that the EU left Vučić little room for manoeuvre.

Did Brussels blackmail Serbia?

I do not think so.

However, the EU has made one thing incomprehensibly clear: it can no longer accept the constant crises between Serbia and Kosovo.

In this respect: Political pressure, yes, but in the sense of constructive cooperation.

Putin: Russia has been expanding its influence in Southeast Europe for years - but the Ukraine war will be a game changer

As recently as December, there were still fears that a wildfire could break out in the western Balkans.

Another trouble spot in Europe.

Do you see this danger – at least for the moment – ​​averted?

Overall, two positive developments could be observed in 2022.

First, contradictory as it may seem, Putin's war in Ukraine is a game changer.

From Serbia to Montenegro and Albania, one thing is clear: we don't want to be drawn into this war.

There is currently more agreement on this than might be perceived from the outside.

Secondly, increased regional cooperation in the region and the Western Balkans summits of the EU show visible progress, especially in climate protection, energy supply and the mutual recognition of educational qualifications and travel documents.

That doesn't sound revolutionary, but they are a definite relief for people.

For years, Russia has been expanding its influence in the unstable countries of south-eastern Europe.

He fell on fertile ground, the Western Balkans was and is frustrated by the slow processes of EU integration.

Is acceptance of the Franco-German plan a defeat for Vladimir Putin?

Paradoxically, Putin's negative impact on the region has had a positive impact on cohesion.

Russia's big pronouncements, particularly in the area of ​​cheap energy, have not materialized - one of the few tools Vladimir Putin has left.

It lacks sustainable financial means to maintain its influence in the region, primarily Serbia or Bosnia-Herzegovina.

This was also evident from the clear positioning of Serbian President Vučić on the opening of a recruiting office for the Wagner Group in Belgrade.

The Serbian President has drawn a clear red line: no participation in the war and no recruitment of young people in the region for war operations.

There have been attempts, and they have not worked.

That was not a matter of course.

The red line: No participation in the war.

In contrast to Central Europe, the Western Balkans have experienced war in recent decades.

Does that shape attitudes towards the Ukraine war?

The people, especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina, are still feeling the Yugoslav war in their bones.

After these traumatic experiences, people do not want to be drawn into further acts of war.

This is the soil on which resistance to Putin is growing.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-02-04

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