The theory of realism in international relations assumes that
disorder is worse than injustice
.
When basic agreements are broken in a world of permanent tensions, the established order is disrupted.
One of the victims of this debacle is peace, which is never the priority objective of States but the international order that makes it possible.
These ideas, which are those of Kissinger, Morgenthau and before Machiavelli among other thinkers, help to understand the challenge that the war in Ukraine constitutes and
the deep meaning that is under discussion
on that front.
Just as Vladimir Putin kicked the international order even with the limitations of the insufficient preparation of his armies and even poorly informed about his capabilities, the conflict has become
a test for the West
on the preservation in its own key of those balances.
Therefore, there are no alternatives to retreat
for either side.
That is why the war is only destined to worsen.
It is what is coming.
Unrelated to the date of the first year of the invasion, which is February 24, the Kremlin is preparing a
major military operation
with which it will try to recover the initiative and set conditions.
It will be an
iron fist
that seeks to restore dignity and success to the Muscovite army, which has suffered notable failures since its initial attempt to take Kiev.
All this will happen before the new Western weapons arrive in Ukraine, of a modernity unthinkable in that scenario until just months ago, such as the giant German, British and American tanks,
unparalleled in Russian strength
.
General Valery Gerasimov.
Photo: REUTERS
Logic of the First World War
From a certain perspective, the delay in these shipments would tip the sandbox in favor of Moscow, but the Kremlin continues to fight with a certain
logic of the First World War
, with artillery, mines and trenches.
These characteristics make it difficult to imagine a definition in the imminent escalation for which Ukraine has also been ready for a long time.
Looking at what has happened so far, it is not clear that Moscow, which in six months and with mercenary manpower
has conquered only one small city
and at enormous cost in casualties, has the resources for an assault that will completely turn the tide. compass of the conflict, say analysts in Europe.
The West is betting on these weaknesses at the head of the United States, which, according to what has been said, cannot admit any other alternative than a
resounding victory
over Russia that sets a precedent.
Putin, in his military challenge, has sought to embody the leaderships that confronted the US and Europe in the Second War, a conflagration that the Germans and Japanese raised for
spaces of power and market
.
Those ambitions are the same ones that flutter in the conflict against Ukraine, but the enormous difference is that today's Russia is incomparable with those players who, moreover, ended up defeated.
"So far, the results have been appalling because Russia was not ready," admits Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin, quoted in a detailed
Bloomberg
analysis .
“This has turned into a protracted war and Moscow still doesn't have enough manpower or equipment to fight it,” he added in his criticism.
Former President Dmitri Medvedev himself, deputy head of the Security Council in the Kremlin, did not rule out the possibility of a Russian defeat, but he transformed that alternative into a
nuclear threat.
"The atomic powers do not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends," he recently warned, suggesting that
the bomb will be the last and inevitable answer
in that abyss.
The scenario is complicated enough for realistic visions to emerge in Russia that maintain that it is already
an achievement and too much effort to maintain the front line
.
It is the vision of General Sergei Surovikin, who had been leading the war effort with a highly defensive approach after Ukraine surprised the world and the Russians themselves with the September offensive.
But Surovikin
was relieved of command just three months after reaching that position.
protracted
war
The extension of the conflict has always been bad news for the Russian leader, who nevertheless considers that the resilience of his forces, with
unprecedented casualties
in any military episode since World War II, has a chance if the country adapts to a warlike climate. permanent.
That is why in recent months, as in the days of the Soviet Union, Russian schools from elementary schools to universities have started
training for possible attacks
.
The intention is not so much to prevent as
to install that common sense
of endless war in the population.
kyiv discounts that the conflict enters an existential level for the Russian command.
"The main fights are yet to come
," warns Oleksy Danilov, head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council.
In comments to
Sky News
, the official remarked that Moscow “is putting everything together, doing drills and training.
We are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks.”
The practices include Belarus, a crucial but at times critical ally of Moscow.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin with the commander in chief of the Armed Forces.
Valery Gerasimov.
Photo: REUTERS
The attacks will be not only on land, but also from the sea and the air,
warns Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for the defense forces of the south of the country.
Hence, the Western allies are disembarking in the Ukraine huge amounts of anti-aircraft weapons that also admit offensive qualities.
The escalation assumes reasons not only military.
General Valery Gerasimov, commander of the Armed Forces, has just been appointed to lead the war strategy in Ukraine in Surovikin's place.
He is the
third senior military officer to assume that position
since the start of the conflict.
Clear fact, those relays, of the eventful course of the war.
As is known, this prestigious general has moved in alliance with the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, to convince Putin of the advisability of taking over command of the conflict and
to end the purely defensive criteria
that the displaced military man imposed on him.
This data is interesting from another perspective if one observes that Surovikin has been a central ally of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of
the Wagner mercenary group
who boasts of moving with greater skill than the Russian army itself.
An offense for Gerasimov and the additional reason to push these changes.
However, to be crowned in that position and maintain his political influence in the midst of such an inmate, the fate of the offensive in the coming weeks will be crucial.
The new military chief is obliged to offer
results that break the deadlock
and restore confidence in the Russian leader.
“With Putin still insisting that Russia take the entire Donbas and even kyiv, it is clear that General Gerasimov will be under immense pressure to carry out a successful offensive this spring.
Now it's up to him, and I suspect
Putin again has unrealistic expectations
," said Mark Galeotti, a specialist in Russian security issues, quoted by
The New York Times.
An anecdote is illustrative of the limits that the stage exhibits.
Gerasimov, possibly Russia's most important military man, has been in charge of the "modernization of the armed forces" over the last 10 years, an advance that was
seriously questioned
in the failed Ukrainian military camp.
Ukrainian President, Volodimir Zelensky EFE
Just note that last April this influential officer
narrowly escaped death
while visiting troops at the front.
An unacceptable incident in which dozens of soldiers and officers were killed and which dramatically exposed the army's planning flaws.
"When you get into a real war, like the one in Ukraine,
all the shortcomings are immediately exposed,"
Frederick Hodges, a former commander of the US Army in Europe, told the US newspaper.
The next few days will see to what extremes this can be true and what it ends up meaning in political terms.
Power is getting the results you want.
The opposite is simply the end.
© Copyright Clarin 2023
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