How does Beijing retaliate when the U.S. military shoots down a Chinese balloon?

People from all walks of life thought that Antony Blinken's postponement of his visit to China was already the most serious consequence of the balloon incident. What was unexpected was that on February 4, local time, the Chinese balloon was shot down by a U.S. fighter jet.

As soon as this incident happened, it immediately triggered a more powerful concussion effect.

Both the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China expressed their serious concerns about this matter and reserved the right to make further necessary reactions.

Many people believe that China and the United States will start a dangerous cycle of retaliation.

After Pelosi, when the new US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Kevin McCarthy) visits Taiwan in the future, the People's Liberation Army is very likely to actually dispatch fighter jets to intercept or shoot down it.

The situation escalated until the U.S. military shot down the balloon, which did cause some trouble to Sino-U.S. relations.

But the first problem is how to calm public opinion.

The balloon entered the U.S. airspace as early as January 28. After the disclosure, it caused an uproar. Various politicians from the Republican Party and the Democratic Party successfully used this incident to show their toughness towards China.

After the U.S. military sent warplanes to shoot down a Chinese balloon on February 4, Reuters photographers captured what appeared to be the balloon's aftermath in Holden Beach, North Carolina.

(Reuters)

Behind the shooting down of the balloon, the Biden (Joe Biden) administration has in fact always been in a passive position of having to follow up or have to make a tough choice.

Therefore, the US government's hostility towards China in this incident is more of a public opinion push.

The Biden administration needs to consider how to avoid the unlimited expansion of this sudden diplomatic show, so as not to affect the Biden administration's diplomatic planning with China.

Both China and the United States are very aware of the quality of this matter. The difference is what the two sides can get from it.

If the United States discovers Chinese eavesdropping equipment during the wreckage collection process, it cannot be ruled out that the Biden administration will continue to use this matter.

On the one hand, try to avoid being coerced by public opinion, and on the other hand, if you can use this matter, you will really use it.

The response of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese military can be seen as tough, but more of an essential response.

For quite a long time, the provocation and suppression of the United States has been a situation that China must face.

How to stabilize Sino-US relations is the homework that China must do.

Originally, the balloon incident was an accident. Whether China will take advantage of this issue and turn it into a bigger conflict between China and the United States needs to consider the benefits and costs.

The uncontrollability of domestic public opinion in the United States makes it very difficult for China to decide when to counterattack the United States.

A Chinese sounding balloon floats into the United States: The picture shows February 1, 2023. Reuters obtained this photo from social media showing a balloon appearing over Laurel, Montana, USA.

(Reuters)

In my opinion, Beijing will not retaliate for the sake of retaliation.

Judging from the fact that Beijing has actively lowered its diplomatic tone towards the US for a period of time, China hopes to maintain a stable Sino-US relationship when the economic recovery ends after the epidemic.

Therefore, the unexpected event will probably not have serious consequences for Sino-US relations.

The sudden incident detonated the contradictions and grievances between China and the United States.

But the grievances and contradictions between China and the United States are unlikely to explode indefinitely.

The Bali meeting between China and the United States represents the sincerity of China and the United States to strengthen communication at this stage.

Blinken's visit was postponed rather than cancelled, indicating that the United States also has some leeway for balloon events.

The conversation between Blinken and Wang Yi on the matter is itself a basic rationality between China and the United States.

At the end of the song, Sino-US relations will still return to the track they should be.

U.S. Republican lawmakers criticized the shooting down of the Chinese balloon too late. Washington expects to take days to salvage the wreckage. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Made solemn representations on the US armed attack