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The horror scenario for an earthquake in Israel: thousands dead, half a million homeless - voila! news


Researchers estimate that it is only a matter of time until a strong earthquake hits Israel, with the main questions being when and with what intensity. "The handling of the issue is on the fringes of the government's business, and is conducted lazily. Why is it only when there is an earthquake like in Turkey that we remember to hold discussions?". The expected financial damage - more than NIS 150 billion

In the video: following the earthquake - evacuation of people from the Champion building in Bnei Brak (according to Article 27 of the Copyright Law)

An average strong earthquake will have catastrophic results in Israel.

More than 7,000 people will die and hundreds of thousands will be left homeless.

Thus, according to a reference scenario prepared a long time ago.

According to the experts, the question of a large and strong earthquake occurring in Israel is only a matter of time - when the question is mainly when and how strong the earthquake will be.

Israel is prone to a major earthquake every century.

The last major earthquake occurred in 1927.

The scenario predicts heavy damage to 29,000 buildings and light to moderate damage to another 290,000 buildings.

The earthquake may bring about 500,000 displaced people immediately after the earthquake, the number expected to at least about 170,000 after some of the displaced people can return to their homes with the approval of engineers.

Thus, warn Brigadier General Dr. Ariel Hayman and Brigadier General Dr. Meir Alran from the Institute for National Security Studies, who even published an article on the subject close to the government's decision to formulate a national plan to rebuild the country after a deadly earthquake.

Buildings destroyed by the earthquake in Syria, February 6, 2023 (Photo: GettyImages)

Repairing the damage will take many years.

Geologist Dr. Ariel Hayman (photo: courtesy of the photographers)

They repeat the warnings even today: "The preparation of the State of Israel for severe earthquakes, which there is no doubt about their occurrence, is lacking, to say the least," says Dr. Hyman to Walla! in a phone call from Vietnam, where he heard the news from Turkey this morning. He mentions that a subject Earthquake preparedness, which has been on Israel's agenda for about forty years, gained momentum following the strong earthquake that struck Turkey in 1999. At that time, a steering committee headed by a team of ministers was established in Israel for the issue of preparing the country to deal with the significant threat, but since then, according to the two: "The handling of the issue is on the fringes of the government's business and the public interest, and is conducted lazily."

Heyman points out that the issue comes up from time to time on the agenda, especially in the media, when a devastating earthquake occurs in another country, or when an earthquake is felt in our country. "It's just like today, against the background of an earthquake Another possession in Turkey, which according to preliminary estimates, claimed the lives of hundreds of people."

"Israel will need large-scale international external assistance."

Diyarbakir province in Turkey, February 6, 2023 (Photo: Reuters)

It is estimated that the cost of damages in Israel according to the horror scenario will reach about NIS 150 billion, but many believe that this is an underestimate.

The two mentioned that this assessment does not include the damages to the national infrastructures such as electricity, fuel, gas, water and sewage, communication systems, public buildings including hospitals and schools as well as land, air and sea transportation systems as well as various critical strategic systems.

"Some of these systems will not work for days after the earthquake, and the others or some of them, up to many months", the two stated in their article on the subject, "the damages, including the secondary ones such as fires, sanitation and more, will be very large and their repair may take many years".

According to them, the difficulty in rebuilding Israel after a severe earthquake is expected to be very great relative to other countries, since Israel is a small country and very densely populated.

Therefore, an earthquake that hits the center of the country will affect a large part of the population and buildings.

"Israel will find itself with great difficulty in taking care of itself and will need large-scale international external assistance," they stated.

Why does it take an earthquake in Turkey to discuss this issue here?

Photos from Turkey, February 6, 2023 (Photo: Reuters)

"Next week, there will be a number of discussions in the Knesset committees on Israel's preparedness for earthquakes, and one must ask why an earthquake in Turkey was needed to discuss this important issue, since we knew everything yesterday," says Heyman, who notes that this was also said in the Knesset's State Audit Committee in -2018, following a scathing report by the state auditor.

"Even since the difficult report of the State Comptroller, nothing has been done," he states, "and here it is again, the Knesset committees will gather, and they will once again voice the criticism as if they are revealing America to us."

Heyman emphasizes, "It's not that we don't do anything. Some things have progressed - but our preparation is still poor."

Among the things that have progressed, he mentions the "exclamation system" to warn against earthquakes.

"But that doesn't make us properly prepared," he adds.

Indeed, at the launch of the system, the director of the Geological Institute, Prof. Zohar Gvirtzman, also pointed out that in a dense country like Israel, all residential areas are prone to damage and that the warning system does not replace the need to strengthen old buildings and build new buildings according to earthquake resistance standards.

"Only strengthening buildings and durable construction can prevent buildings from collapsing," he said.

"The next significant earthquake in Israel is a matter of time and all the authorities have to do in this regard is to promote urban renewal as much as possible," said today the mayor of Nesher, Roy Levy, "while the discussions revolve around the contractor's profit, millions of Israelis remain at risk of buildings collapsing on their heads."

The risk of being in the center of the noise is extremely significant.

Mayor of Nesher Roy Levy (photo: official website, spokeswoman of the Municipality of Nesher)

The 1999 earthquake in Turkey (photo: IDF spokesman)

In view of the sights coming from Turkey, Levy said that "this is not a pipe dream, this is reality. A reality that will also occur in Israel. The question is when and what we did to be ready for when the noise hits."

He himself, in the city of Nesher, which is celebrating its 100th anniversary, states that he is "required to strengthen houses in the city that are 60 and 70 years old that hang on a rickety column floor that can collapse in one earthquake."

He mentions that his city is crossed by the Yagor fault, which is part of the Syrian-African fault, "which means the risk of being at the center of the next noise in the region is extremely significant."

Levy says that "all the government ministries and the local government must do everything possible to speed up the urban renewal initiatives."

2.5 million tons of hazardous materials in Haifa Bay (Photo: Flash 90, Yaniv Nadav)

The Union of Cities for the Protection of the Environment of the Haifa Bay is also concerned, and mentions the proximity of the refineries and petrochemical plants to the disaster-prone Yagor Shafer, as they say: "The severe earthquake that struck Turkey tonight is a serious warning sign of what may happen here in the event that the earthquake occurs in our area. About 2.5 million tons of hazardous materials are stored in the Gulf area, and a similar event may result in the fact that, in addition to the victims of house collapses, many will also be harmed by exposure to dangerous substances. A decision was made to evacuate the Zan, but without a target date and budget for its implementation.

It is better to speed up the procedures, and set goals and deadlines for evacuation, so that, God forbid, a disaster does not happen while we are waiting for the factories to be removed from the area."

The union also mentioned that "Phase A of the Ministry of Environmental Protection's risk survey was submitted only at the end of 2019, about 3 years after the set date. The survey focused on routine operational incidents in factories and risk factors only. The next phase was supposed to deal with serious incidents, which may occur as a result from an earthquake and/or as a result of a hostile attack (sabotage or war). This survey has not yet been completed to this very day."

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Source: walla

All news articles on 2023-02-06

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