On December 30, 2022, the heads of state of China and Russia had a video call, and Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Moscow in the spring of 2023.
Since then, the two countries have not disclosed further information, but there seems to be new progress recently.
On January 30, Russian media reported that Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, will visit Moscow, the capital of Russia, on February 20 to discuss with Russia the preparations for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia. And will meet with Putin during the visit.
The Russian Foreign Ministry also stated on the same day that Putin has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Moscow in the spring, which is expected to be the top priority in Russia-China relations.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that it believes that the potential for cooperation between the two countries is far from exhausted, and hopes to elevate Russia-China relations to a "new height" and realize the goal of bilateral trade volume reaching 200 billion US dollars ahead of schedule.
Compared with Russia's high-profile announcement, China chose to keep a low profile.
At the regular press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 1, a reporter asked: "According to Russian media reports, Chinese leaders will visit Moscow this spring. Can China confirm this plan?" In response to this, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Mao Ning said that China and Russia have maintained close communication at multiple levels to promote the development of bilateral relations and also contribute to the maintenance of world peace and development. "I have no information to release about the specific visit at present."
At the same time, relevant pre-meeting preparations continued.
On February 2, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu visited Russia and exchanged views with Russia on Sino-Russian relations, bilateral and multilateral cooperation, and international and regional issues of common concern; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that Russia There is no limit to the relationship between China and although it is not a formal military alliance, it has a higher and broader nature. Russia is willing to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with China, deepen bilateral and multilateral strategic coordination, and promote Russia-China relations to a higher level.
This trip may be regarded as the prelude to Wang Yi's visit to Russia.
As can be seen from the above-mentioned interactions, Beijing and Moscow adopt different forms of expression in how to present Sino-Russian relations to the outside world: the Russian side makes high-profile publicity and does not hesitate to exaggerate, while the Chinese side operates in a low-key manner and strives to move forward steadily.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on December 30.
(Reuters)
Why China keeps a low profile
The temperature difference between China and Russia stems from the different situations in which the two countries are located.
As far as Russia is concerned, it has become a public enemy of the West due to the war, and it can only rely on seeking support from the East.
Although Beijing does not provide military aid and does not recognize Russia's sovereignty over the occupied Ukrainian territory, Moscow does not have the capital to face the enemy, and it is quite reluctant to fight the United States alone. It can only hope to share with China, which is under pressure from the United States.
However, for China, it is certainly feasible to cooperate with Russia to resist the strategic oppression of the United States, but it cannot ignore the perception of the outside world.
At the beginning of the war, Western countries led by the United States imposed sanctions on Russia one after another, and demanded that China must participate, otherwise it would be supporting the war and aggression.
Just looking at the world, there are countless countries that do not participate in the sanctions against Russia. In addition to China, there are also India and the general Arab, Latin American, and African world.
As the reality is, it is impossible for the West to only pursue China fiercely, so this public opinion offensive failed to completely encircle China in the end.
Since Russia launched a war and invaded Ukraine in February, it has been subject to comprehensive international sanctions. Many foreign companies have announced their withdrawal from the Russian market. Global soda brands Coca Cola and Pepsi have also successively announced the suspension of operations in Russia.
The picture shows a Coca-Cola advertisement taken on May 14, which was affected by the war in Ukraine.
(Getty Images)
However, as the war tends to protract, China has been projected with different expectations: exerting influence on Russia and persuading Vladimir Putin to end the war.
However, the reason why Russia and Ukraine were unable to negotiate peace is not because of China's "absence of mediation", but because of the continued high fighting will of both sides: Ukraine has launched counterattacks one after another with the aid of European and American military aid and the general mobilization of the whole country, hoping to regain Crimea and other countries. All lost ground; Russia carried out the first mobilization after World War II. Even though the goal of demilitarization and de-Nazification is difficult to achieve, it still wants to consolidate the fait accompli of occupying part of Ukraine.
In all fairness, neither China nor the United Nations will have room for mediation until either Russia or Ukraine retreats and Europe and the United States reduce military aid to Ukraine.
But even so, the outside world still pays attention to every diplomatic interaction between China and Russia.
For example, on September 15, 2022, the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was held in Uzbekistan. The heads of state of China and Russia held the first offline meeting after the outbreak of war. "Understanding China's doubts and concerns on this issue", interpreted signals such as "differences in the positions of China and Russia", "changes in China's policy towards Russia", and hinted that the Russian offensive is about to collapse.
Of course, judging from the results, this interpretation has little practical significance, because it is China’s consistent position not to provide military assistance to Russia and not to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over the occupied territories, and the interaction between China and Russia has not declined because of this, and the West will not stop because of this. In addition, although China did not provide military assistance to Russia, Russia's front line did not collapse because of this, and the war is still going on today.
However, it is conceivable that as long as Xi Jinping really visits Russia this spring, the "China supports aggression and war" offensive launched by the West will cause huge waves in the field of public opinion; Sovereignty, there will be another wave of Western public opinion hyping Sino-Russian hostility.
The two narratives against China contradict each other, but they still continue to coexist in the pro-Western public opinion field and occupy a certain market territory.
Although China will not give up its interaction with Russia because of this, it is impossible to completely ignore the cost of public opinion. This is why Beijing maintains a low profile.
On April 26, 2019, at the Friendship Palace in Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) shook hands during the graduation ceremony of Tsinghua University.
(Getty Images)
What can China and Russia talk about
Although there are certain variables about whether and when Xi Jinping will visit Russia before China officially announces it, the possibility of the visit is quite high as Russia is currently in a "semi-confirmed" state.
Under such circumstances, speculating on the possible content of the talks between the heads of state of China and Russia has a certain probability of realization.
The first is the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In view of the fact that Russia’s public opinion situation is still difficult, if Xi Jinping really visits Russia this spring, no matter how the level of Sino-Russian cooperation improves, China will still not announce military aid to Russia, nor will it recognize Russia’s support for Ukraine, which is “publicly investing in Russia.” The four places have sovereignty, but will uphold the consistent position from February 2022 onwards, calling on Russia and Ukraine to return to the negotiating table to resolve the conflict.
However, at the end of spring, there may be a possible variable, that is, after the spring offensives of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries in March and April, one side may think that the cost of continuing the war is too high, and decide to abandon the relatively tough bottom line of negotiations and choose to pragmatically adjust related relations. condition.
For example, the Ukrainian army may decide to abandon the initial bottom line of "Russian troops must withdraw from Ukraine" due to the increase in the loss of active forces, and instead accept the proposal of the US negotiators: to exchange territory for peace, that is, although Russia does not recognize Russia's "into Russia four "Territory" has sovereignty, but has effectively given up efforts to retake it militarily.
In the case of one party making concessions, international forces including China, the United Nations, and the United States will have room for mediation, which may result in a ceasefire between the two countries on relatively pragmatic terms.
In view of the fact that the spring offensive may be staged in March and April, there may be a "cooling-off period" between Russia and Ukraine from late April to May. If Xi Jinping visits Russia from March to April, there may be a chance Talk to Putin about the next step after the fierce battle; if he visits Russia in May at the end of spring, he and Putin may have the opportunity to talk about the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and the conditions for negotiations.
On January 18, in Brovaly, Ukraine, a boy watched the wreckage on the ground.
(Getty Images)
However, the so-called spring offensive may become a stalemate, resulting in no party willing to back down in the end, then the ceasefire negotiations will still be far away, and China will not be able to play a mediating role.
In addition, the Russia-Uzbekistan negotiations cannot be conducted with only China's mediation and bypassing Europe and the United States. In all fairness, China is not the relevant party. The Russia-Uzbekistan negotiations can be done without China's mediation, but they cannot be without the presence of Europe and the United States. Of course, China will continue to persuade peace and promote talks , but how effective it is and whether there is room for it depends on the outcome of the tripartite game between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine, and China is unlikely to occupy a dominant position.
If there is a negotiation window around April and May, and Xi Jinping also visits Russia at this time, the following scenario may occur: Through Putin’s mouth, Xi Jinping learned about Russia’s next plan and ceasefire conditions, and expressed persuasion and promotion Consistent standpoint.
But as mentioned above, without the cooperation of the United States and Ukraine, the war would still be unstoppable despite Russia's intention to cease fire and China's support.
Under such circumstances, it is impossible for the meeting between the heads of state of China and Russia to only discuss the undecided topic of war. Instead, there will be new projects related to cooperation between the two countries. No matter how the war develops, the trend of cooperation in 2022 will continue.
According to Chinese customs data, the Sino-Russian trade volume in 2022 will approach US$190 billion, a record high; according to Gazprom’s data, China’s imports of Russian gas through the “Siberian Power” pipeline will increase by at least 50% in 2022 ; Russian oil imports in the first 11 months of the year also increased by about 10% to about 80 million tons.
On December 21, Russia's Kovikta condensate gas field and the Kovikta-Chayanda section of the "Siberian Electric Power" natural gas pipeline were officially put into operation, marking the full completion of the China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline.
Entering 2023, China and Russia are accelerating the "China-Russia Far East Route Natural Gas Pipeline Project". This project is another major energy cooperation project between the two countries after the China-Russia East Route Natural Gas Pipeline Project.
The starting point is from Vladivostok, Russia to China, and the source of natural gas is Sakhalin Island. It involves a cross-border road section passing through the Ussuri River in the Dalnerechensk region and Hulin City.
On February 4, 2022, during Putin's attendance at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics, China and Russia signed the "China National Petroleum Corporation and Gazprom's Far East Gas Purchase and Sales Agreement". At that time, Gazprom issued an announcement saying, After the China-Russia Far East Natural Gas Pipeline is put into production, Gazprom's annual pipeline natural gas supply to China will increase by 10 billion cubic meters. Adding the gas transmission volume of the "Power of Siberia" pipeline, the total gas supply to China will reach 480 billion cubic meters per year. billion cubic meters.
The picture shows that on April 21, 2022, workers in a foundry in Germany were preparing to pour molten ductile iron into molds.
The company produces components, including those used in the renewable energy sector, and is one of the few companies in Europe capable of casting workpieces weighing less than 300 tons.
A gas supply disruption in Germany would shut down much of the foundry's manufacturing capacity.
In addition, due to the current EU sanctions against Russia, the company is already facing several times higher raw material prices.
(Getty Images)
On January 30, 2023, the Russian government announced the draft intergovernmental agreement on the transportation of natural gas to China through the Far East route, which mentioned that China and Russia encourage the use of their own currencies in the natural gas trade of the Far East route, and stated that the Russian Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already started negotiations with relevant Chinese departments, and will sign a formal intergovernmental agreement when the two sides reach an agreement.
From this point of view, if Xi Jinping's spring visit to Russia comes true, he and Putin are likely to announce new progress on the case in Moscow.
In addition, China and Russia are also negotiating cooperation on China-Mongolia-Russia pipeline cooperation. Although the progress may not be as fast as the "China-Russia Far East Natural Gas Pipeline Project", it is still a promising cooperation project in the future.
From a historical perspective, the Sino-Russian alliance is not the norm. Even if they have a good relationship, they cooperate with precautions. However, with the increasing strategic pressure of the United States in recent years, this layer of barriers is dissolving, and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war has made Russia increasingly close. China.
Looking into the future, regardless of whether Xi Jinping visits Russia in the spring or not, China’s stance on promoting peace talks over the Russia-Ukraine war will not change, and China will continue to cooperate with Russia in economics and trade, both in the energy field and in physical goods trade.
What role does China play in Russia-Ukraine mediation?
It can persuade peace talks, but because it is not a party to NATO and Russia and Ukraine, it cannot lead the direction of negotiations.
Which major energy cooperation project is China and Russia advancing?
China and Russia are accelerating the "China-Russia Far East Route Natural Gas Pipeline Project", which is another major energy cooperation project between the two countries after the China-Russia East Route Natural Gas Pipeline Project.
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