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Census: macrocephaly and stagnation

2023-02-07T09:56:43.879Z


The analysis of the results released last week, the historical comparison with other censuses. Our censuses constitute x-rays of historical processes marked by fire by the transplantation of successive human torrents from Europe, the Interior itself and neighboring countries. One hundred and fifty years after the first, ordered by President Sarmiento, it is possible to go through the vicissitudes of our trajectory by contextualizing that of 2022. This gives us an account of a macrocephalic


Our censuses constitute x-rays of historical processes marked by fire by the transplantation of successive human torrents from Europe, the Interior itself and neighboring countries.

One hundred and fifty years after the first, ordered by President Sarmiento, it is possible to go through the vicissitudes of our trajectory by contextualizing that of 2022.

This gives us an account of a macrocephalic country in which

20 of its 46 million (43%) live in the "two Buenos Aires"

-the Federal Capital and the Province-, and 14 (30%) in the AMBA;

but also other less discouraging trends.

In 1869, Argentina, with 1,800,000 inhabitants evenly distributed between the Interior and the Coast, was a future project dependent on eventual immigration movements from industrial Europe.

Throughout the next two years, in 1895 and 1914, these coveted contingents arrived concentrating on the eastern plains and compromising that balance;

however, offset by two strategic population checkpoints around the Tucuman sugar and Mendoza wine productions.

The 20th century and its vicissitudes interrupted what was assumed, not without a certain ingenuity, to be a continuous course.

Torsion that was reduced to the conjectural plane by the long statistical blackout between 1914 and 1947.

The census of this last year revealed the crisis of the agricultural country from 1930 and the consequent

massive internal migrations from the Buenos Aires and coastal areas to the labor-intensive industrial pole of the GBA

.

Certainly a trauma;

but also a cultural reorientation of aspirational expectations and a progressive demographic slowdown.

If in 1914 the transoceanic contingents had made it possible to reach almost 8 million, in 1947 that population doubled;

although reducing to approximately five million decennial years during the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1991 and 2001 periods, not exempt from new impacts.

The industrial country confirmed the aforementioned checkpoints in the Interior since the 1920s scattered in other agro-industrial complexes that moderately protected federalism.

But

the turn toward capital-intensive industries since the 1960s shattered the economies of the Northwest and Northeast

, spilling a stream of new internal immigrants accompanied by others from Paraguay and Bolivia.

The simultaneous agrarian resurrection was far from compensating for this inflection with its sequel of informality barely conjured by full employment still contained by the 25 million in 1970.

Ten years later, to the metropolitan congestion was added an incipient structural poverty of 10% of the active population with its saga of unemployment and job insecurity.

The continuation of the agricultural expansion in Buenos Aires and the Litoral overflowed, even, to the frontier prior to 1930;

At the same time, the discoveries of gas and hydrocarbon deposits and the large hydroelectric works lubricated a new industry of intermediate goods –cellulose, petrochemicals, steel and aluminum- with an extrovert bias but labor neutral.

The 2001 census confirmed the trends suggested in the 1980s and confirmed in the 1990s

.

Nurtured by new technologies, the new agricultural development -with its correlate of transgenic seed industries, fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides, and machinery- made incursions into the Interior in an inverse movement to the demographic on the large coastal cities from the 60s and 70s.

Mercosur also offered a new market;

the subsequent platform towards the countries of Asia-Pacific and the resurrection of extra pampas regional products –wine, fruits, oil, sugar, tea and tobacco- previously concentrated in the internal market.

Insufficient to delimit the

metropolitan hypertrophy revealed by the 2010 census

that coincided with the saturation of the installed capacity during the previous decades and the consequent stagnation.

Not even the expansive cycles of the 1990s and 2000s could, moreover, pierce the floor of 25% of social poverty today perched above 40.

Thus we arrive at the tendencies outlined by the last census: macrocephalism is finding its limits in the new provincial islets of wealth that have stopped the demographic hemorrhage of the Interior;

however, continued by that of neighbors whose immigrants are engaged in informal economy activities that are not always legal or in decent conditions.

And that explains, in part,

the “upwards” increase in the population of some districts of the second cordon of the GBA and the impulse of the third

.

Although there they converge with the other side of the middle and upper sectors that tend to lock themselves in the new urbanizations fleeing from insecurity and coexistence anomie.

The slowdown in Patagonia (except Tierra del Fuego attributable to its expensive promotional regime) is explained by the energy crisis;

while the increase in Neuquén exhibits the novel possibilities of shale gas (Vaca Muerta).

To them are added those of lithium and other minerals throughout the Andean region.

Lago Argentino (El Calafate) and Bariloche, finally, are witness cases of another opportunity: global tourism currently diversified into different segments.

In short, stagnant and deformed;

although with promising perspectives as long as a better policy faces urgent reforms in order to repower our human capital whose residual balance we squander throughout the world.

Historian


look also

furious and criminal

fissure world

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-02-07

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