The Governor of the Banque de France estimated on Tuesday that the peak of inflation in the euro zone would "
very probably
" be reached by June, but the return to the 2% target will be long and consumers seem to doubt a sustained decline in prices.
"
Inflation will most likely peak, barring new surprises, in the first half of this year
," said François Villeroy de Galhau, who was participating by videoconference in a symposium organized by the German weekly Die Zeit.
"
We are not very far
" from the peak, he added, while the facts already seem to prove him right: from 10.4% in October, inflation has already fallen significantly in the euro zone in January, at 8.5% and for the third consecutive month, thanks to the lull in energy prices.
The European Central Bank “
will bring inflation back to 2%
”, a level which reflects price stability, “
by the end of 2024 or 2025
”, hammered the central banker.
The monetary institute is using the weapon of rates for this, raised five times since July for a total of 3 percentage points, with the intention of continuing the movement in March or even beyond.
By raising rates, the ECB wants to dampen consumer demand, in particular, in order to reduce price pressures.
These consumers, surveyed by the ECB, see inflation remaining above 2% in the medium term: their expectations for the next three years "
have increased slightly, from 2.9% to 3.0%
“, reversing a previous decline, according to the latest monthly survey published Tuesday by the monetary institute.
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Inflation has changed in nature over the past year, going from a shock mainly affecting energy prices to a phenomenon affecting a large basket of goods in the economy.
Excluding energy prices, so-called “core” inflation
stagnated
in January at more than 5%, defying the action of the ECB.
"
Monetary policy is able to act to counter the rise in this underlying inflation
," assured François Villeroy De Galhau.