The French economy should grow by 0.2% in each of the first two quarters of 2023 thanks to resilient industrial production, while inflation should decline in June to 5% over one year, INSEE predicted on Tuesday.
"
We are in a rather hesitant economic situation, neither frankly favorable nor frankly unfavourable
", summarized Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department of the National Institute of Statistics during a press conference.
After progressing by a timid 0.1% in Q4 2022, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should thus increase by 0.2% in Q1 then by 0.2% again in Q2, against 0.1% respectively. and 0.3% previously anticipated.
“Modest” rebound
After a sharp decline at the end of 2022, household consumption should rebound “
modestly
”, driven by energy consumption under normal winter conditions, after a particularly mild autumn.
While purchases of vehicles would continue to progress, those of food products could remain penalized by double-digit price increases, up to 13.7% over one year in this sector in February, according to INSEE.
Overall, the rise in consumer prices should remain on
a "plateau
" around 6% over one year in February, a level not seen for nearly four decades, before gradually falling back to 5% in June.
But since food now weighs more than energy in this indicator, core inflation (excluding energy and fresh food products) should remain above this level, at 5.7% in mid-2023.
Support for the economy will come mainly from industrial production, which could "
slightly increase
" in the first quarter, according to INSEE.
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It will benefit from the rebound in coking-refining which had suffered from the October strikes, fewer supply difficulties and increased electricity production with the return to service of nuclear reactors.
In services, activity should still show “
a moderate pace
”.
However, these forecasts do not take into account the possible impact of strikes against the pension reform project, which could have a greater impact on certain sectors such as transport.