There has been a rule of thumb in Austrian domestic politics for a number of years: If the ÖVP has a problem, a leadership debate or at least a dispute about direction will break out in the SPÖ.
The Austrian Social Democrats have mastered the art of bad timing.
This phenomenon could now be observed again in the state elections in Lower Austria – to the delight of the conservatives and presumably in favor of the right-wing populists.
The Lower Austrian ÖVP was the big loser in the election with a minus of ten percentage points.
But the focus is on the SPÖ and its top staff.
Once again.
Slowly but surely, the SPÖ is heading towards the showdown in which it will be decided who will lead the party in the upcoming National Council elections, which are scheduled to take place in autumn 2024.
The initial situation:
The party leader
Pamela Rendi-Wagner surprisingly became SPÖ chairwoman in 2018.
Before that, she was Minister of Health under Chancellor Christian Kern, who brought the medical graduate and later top civil servant into politics as a career changer.
Her past is still Rendi-Wagner's greatest shortcoming: her opponents (among party friends) accuse her of never having arrived in her role as top politician.
She does not appear edgy enough, is not a social democrat with heart and soul.
In recent years, her chair has been sawn several times.
But one thing everyone agrees with Rendi-Wagner: She has stamina like hardly anyone else in the political establishment.
In the future, too, she will not let herself be put aside without a fight.
The adversary
Rendi-Wagner has an open opponent: Hans Peter Doskozil, the Burgenland governor and former defense minister.
Doskozil would like to become the SPÖ's top candidate in the upcoming national elections.
He considers Rendi-Wagner to be incompetent, and he makes no secret of that.
He has regularly attacked her and her politics for many months.
He recently commissioned a survey to determine under whose leadership the SPÖ would do better.
The result, what a surprise: under him, Doskozil - and of course the survey found its way into the media.
Hans Peter Doskozil is considered a representative of the right-wing camp within the SPÖ.
In Burgenland, where he governs with an absolute majority, he is pursuing a course of nationalization.
In the SPÖ he is also controversial.
The centers of power
Enlarge image
The longtime ORF general director Alexander Wrabetz 2009
Photo: Jens Kalaene / dpa
Pamela Rendi-Wagner has survived to this day for two reasons - despite the many efforts of her opponents to saw her off: First, there is neither a logical successor nor a successor that everyone in the party can currently agree on.
Secondly, Rendi-Wagner enjoys the favor of the powerful Viennese provincial party and of Michael Ludwig, Vienna's mayor.
He's sticking with Rendi-Wagner – at least for now.
In the meantime, however, Doskozil opponents are already launching names of alternative candidates for the SPÖ leadership - apparently in the event that Rendi-Wagner cannot hold on after all.
Alexander Wrabetz, for example, has recently been mentioned.
He was Director General of Public Service Broadcasting until 2021.
It is also unclear what the former SPÖ leader Christian Kern intends to do.
He himself denies any ambitions for a political comeback.
The upcoming state elections
The federal state of Carinthia is the third social democratic stronghold in Austria, alongside Vienna and Burgenland.
There will be elections on March 5th.
Carinthia's governor Peter Kaiser, a veteran of the SPÖ, issued the slogan in his party that no personnel debates should be held before "his" state elections.
Later one could then “discuss everything”.
Elections will be held in Salzburg on April 23.
Most reckon that the big red power struggle will then reach its finale.
But before that happens, we also have other exciting topics for you: Our podcast Inside Austria has just been devoted to four parts of the Wirecard affair.
In the most recent episode, the colleagues followed the trail of the former CFO Jan Marsalek who went into hiding.
He is currently the most wanted Austrian in the world.
I highly recommend the series.
Social media moment of the week
Chancellor Karl Nehammer's spokesman admits: he prefers to talk about public television than about »partisan politically motivated« posts being filled by the ÖVP
Stories we recommend you today:
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Red hope for the future: Sven Hergovich: The mannerly left
I wish you a nice week.
Sincerely
yours, Katharina Mittelstaedt,
Editor-in-Chief of DER STANDARD