Global passenger traffic will return this year to its pre-coronavirus pandemic level, before exceeding 2019 activity at the end of 2023, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimated on Wednesday.
This forecast assumes a further acceleration in air transport, after a year 2022 which saw attendance reach 74% of the volume recorded in 2019, the last full year before the arrival of Covid-19.
Passenger traffic had fallen by 60% in 2020 compared to the previous year.
In 2021, it was still down 49% compared to 2019, according to the UN agency based in Montreal (Canada).
The ICAO predicts that
“demand will quickly return to pre-pandemic levels for most destinations during the first quarter”
of 2023, according to a press release.
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The agency estimates that by the end of the year, attendance will be around 3% higher than 2019 figures. It sees it rising to 4% above that benchmark year in 2024. The organization foresees a return to operating profitability (profit before tax and depreciation) of the sector in the last quarter of 2023,
“after three consecutive years of losses”
.
Many companies have already returned to profit, mainly thanks to the renewed appetite for tourism and air travel.
A resurgence that marked price increases have not slowed down.
Regarding air freight, the ICAO expects a lesser increase than that of passenger traffic, “due to the slowdown in global growth”.
In 2022, the transport of goods by air was equivalent to the volumes recorded in 2021.
