The Public Works Subcommittee of the Legislative Council approved the first batch of 14.9 billion appropriations for the "simple public housing" on Wednesday (8th), but there are still many disputes over the land used for Kai Tak World Fortune Road.
In addition, the government shelved the Kowloon East Environmental Link System elevated monorail project in 2020, and changed the four commercial sites under the Kai Tak Zoning Plan to residential use, and the URA redevelopment project of Yu Man Square in Kwun Tong has recently lost bids Naturally, it is worrying that the second "Core Business District" under "Activating Kowloon East" is still aborted.
Kowloon East is the second "Core Business District" in Hong Kong, including Kai Tak Development Area, Kwun Tong Business District and Kowloon Bay Business District.
Among the three, the Kai Tak Development Area with an area of 320 hectares has the largest proportion, but the other two Kwun Tong Business District and Kowloon Bay Business District also have a total area of 168 hectares.
The latter originally has more developed commercial land than the Kai Tak Development Area, and the authorities have also extended the Energizing Kowloon East Project to the San Po Kong Business District.
Therefore, in addition to the temporary changes of individual plots in the Kai Tak Development Area, we also need to review the entire Kowloon East macroscopically to measure whether the positioning of the "core business district" exists.
The official index first pushes the floor area
According to the conceptual master plan of "Energizing Kowloon East", the authorities' strategy to promote the district as a core business district covers four themes - connectivity, branding, design and diversity. area, the number of stakeholders who expressed satisfaction with the work of the "Active Kowloon East" office in the statistical survey, the number of people who participated in the support activities of the office, the area of public open space, the density and number of green buildings, and the participation in "Easy Parking" Percentage of hourly parking spaces.
However, among the above-mentioned indicators, the last three items are not directly related to business, at most they are external incentives to attract commercial organizations to settle in; as for the two indicators related to the activities and work of the "Active Kowloon East" branch office, the evaluation objects It is simply an office rather than a "core business district" itself.
As a result, only commercial floor area is left for which the official indicator is really applicable.
According to the "Property Statistics Report" of the Rating and Valuation Department, the total floor area of private office buildings and commercial buildings in Kowloon City and Kwun Tong has increased from about 2.63 million square meters at the end of 2011 to about 3.5 million at the end of 2021 Square meter unit.
The geographical scope of the two districts is larger than the entire Kowloon East, and the changes in commercial floor space are generally in line with the development of Kowloon East as stated by the authorities.
However, after careful review of the detailed figures over the years, it can be found that the proportion of commercial floor space in Kwun Tong will continue to rise from about 66% in 2011 to about 73% in 2021. In contrast, almost no new office buildings have been completed in Kowloon City over the years, and the floor area of commercial buildings Not only is it not as good as Kwun Tong, but it is about to be overtaken by the opponent in total.
Looking specifically at Kai Tak, apart from Nan Fung Airside, which recorded its first leasing transaction last quarter, there are not too many large-scale office projects in the district, and commercial land has also lost bidding one after another in recent years.
Nan Fung's large-scale commercial project AIRSIDE.
The main axis of supply of commercial floor space in Kowloon East is not only focused on Kwun Tong, and although the area of commercial floor space has increased considerably, the development speed has not been as originally expected by the government.
At the end of 2016, the "Active Kowloon East" office estimated that the total stock of office buildings in Kowloon East would reach about 3 million square meters by the end of 2021. However, the latest data from the R&E Department shows that the actual stock of office buildings in Kowloon City and Kwun Tong is only insufficient 2.04 million, even if calculation errors are excluded, it is still difficult to call it up to the standard.
What's more, providing sufficient commercial floor space does not mean that more commercial organizations will settle in.
As Legislative Council member Deng Jiapiu pointed out, the vacancy situation of commercial buildings in Kowloon East is quite common. By the end of 2021, the vacancy rates of office buildings and commercial buildings in Kowloon City District will be 11.9% and 11.2%, while those in Kwun Tong District will be 15.8% and 14.0% respectively %.
The performance of the two is worse than that of the traditional "core business district" in Central, and is almost worse than the average value of Hong Kong. In this case, Kowloon East is still a long way from becoming CBD2.
Social perception values property prices
To measure whether an area is a "core business district", in addition to commercial floor area, rent and price are also regarded as indicators. High prices and rents are the common characteristics of most "core business districts".
In the past, sociologist Ernest Burgess and land economist Homer Hoyt proposed the typical "concentric circle model" and "fan-shaped model" theory of urban development, both of which contain the accessibility of urban land. The premise of high prices and fierce competition leads to rising prices. As a result, only the rich and giant companies can afford the relevant locations. This is where the emergence of "core business districts" originated.
The average price and rent of Grade A private office buildings in Kowloon Bay/Kwun Tong District in 2014 were 123,051 yuan and 345 yuan per square meter, and by 2021 they will rise to 155,562 yuan and 348 yuan respectively, an increase of about 26% and 1%. During the same period, the performances of Sheung Wan, Central District, Wanchai and North Point were all higher than this figure; looking at Grade B private office buildings, the rents of Kowloon Bay/Kwun Tong District were actually the only ones that did not increase but decreased in the statistics area during this period, while the other The price increase is only better than that of Tsim Sha Tsui, and it is worse than the price and rental performance of office buildings of the same level in Hong Kong.
On the whole, its performance at the price level is only quite satisfactory, but it is not lost.
Although the "concentric circle model" and "fan-shaped model" that valued the benchmark land price in the city center were gradually replaced by the "multi-core model" proposed by Chauncy Harris and Edward Ullman, Kowloon East is positioned as the second Strictly speaking, this "core business district" is also a practical application of the "multi-core model" theory.
To become a CBD2 under the "multi-core model", Kowloon East should play a different role from the original "core business district", but is this the case?
Planning goals must be clearly defined
Commercial organizations in the traditional "core business district" of Hong Kong Island are mainly financial, banking and professional service industries, and it is easy to find counterparts or business partners to solve problems.
Coupled with the location's superior traffic conditions and the proximity to government departments, the various needs of business operators can be easily met, and such convenience has led to a continuous increase in the price and rent of the lot. Symbol of capital and goodwill.
On the other hand, Kowloon East's "Core Business District" has not even formed a crowd or brand effect similar to that of Hong Kong Island, and even the leading industries in this area are hard to see.
The Planning Department has conducted two rounds of the "Statistical Survey of Kowloon East Business Organizations" in 2010 and 2018. The results show that the number of establishments engaged in manufacturing, import and export trade, wholesale and retail has decreased, which is in line with the government and the The society has a vision to change the positioning of old industrial areas. However, the proportion of those who have increased is mostly the construction industry and real estate professional services related to real estate development. In addition, the number of interviewed institutions located in industrial buildings has not decreased but increased in the past seven years, which just reveals this fact. The "Core Business District" is still under construction.
The same statistical survey also found that when commercial organizations were asked about the main reasons for choosing their current locations, they believed that Kowloon East had the advantages of traditional "core business districts" such as proximity to liaison offices, sufficient business support services, sufficient parking spaces, or a prestigious and superior location. The quantity is less than 10%.
This kind of problem has little to do with whether the district will develop or how much residential land will be developed, nor can it be solved simply by expanding the commercial floor area or raising land prices and rents.
Especially if the goal of developing this "core business district" is to attract and support certain industries, it is even more important to tailor the supporting environment for them.
After ten years, Kowloon East has definitely failed to become a "core business district", mainly because of the growth in commercial floor space and land use.
Although the positioning of its CBD2 is not "stillborn", it is clear that the government needs to work harder.
The authorities should first clarify the positioning of this second "core business district".
If you want to extend the financial industry in Central, you should attract more investment banks, law firms and accountants; if you want to promote cultural and creative arts, you can consider relocating relevant government departments to this place, and plan more The unit is larger in size and suitable for performance venues.
Only by setting a clear target industry for the development of the area can it be possible to truly provide a supporting environment suitable for relevant business operators, so as to increase the incentives for commercial organizations and their customers to choose to come.
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