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New cut in soybean production due to drought: it will be the lowest in 15 years

2023-02-08T16:38:35.309Z


A harvest of 34.5 million tons is projected, 7% less than what was projected in January. Despite the rains that have brought relief to many productive areas in recent weeks, the coarse grain campaign in Argentina has already suffered a blow with irreversible consequences that are reflected in the production projections made by the main entities. And this will have consequences in the income of dollars. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), a 15% drop in production is already


Despite the rains that have brought relief to many productive areas in recent weeks, the coarse grain campaign in Argentina has already suffered a blow with irreversible consequences that are reflected in the production projections made by the main entities.

And this will have consequences in the income of dollars.

According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), a 15% drop in production is already estimated for corn compared to the 50 million tons expected with a normal climate scenario.

"With 42.5 million tons it will be the worst Argentine harvest in the last 5 years -they affirmed-. In terms of yield, with 64.1 qq/ha it is the fourth worst mark in 15 years despite the enormous technological leap of the crop , the increasing doses of fertilization and the unprecedented fact that late plantings occupy almost 75% of the national planting area".

Figure 1

The area that will not be harvested as grain increases by 30% due to the lack of water, and is estimated at 1.3 M ha.

"The productive disaster begins in Entre Ríos, continues throughout Santa Fe and extends to the west and to a large part of the central Cordoba strip. It also extends to the south: Buenos Aires is affected, especially the north and central east," he details. .

In terms of yields, Entre Ríos would reach an average of only 30 qq/ha and Santa Fe 55 qq/ha.

Buenos Aires follows them with 67 qq/ha.

Córdoba, thanks to its flagship crop, late corn, reaches the top of this yield rating with only 75 qq/ha.

In terms of production and compared to the previous year (a year that was also affected by the lack of water), Santa Fe will stop producing 3.1 million tons, Córdoba 2.2 million tons, and Buenos Aires 1.6 million tons.

Regarding soybeans, the February cut is 7% compared to the January figure, going from 37 to 34.5 million tons.

In this way, it will be the second worst national harvest of the last 15 years, already being lower than that of 2017/18 (35 million tons).

"Unfortunately, as warned in January, a strong adjustment of area losses was made, especially in second-rate soybeans. The 504,000 ha at that time are updated to 1M ha. Buenos Aires heads the list of lost area with 301,000 ha They are followed by Córdoba with 222,000 ha and Santa Fe with 160,000," warns the Stock Exchange.

This will have a negative impact on the income of dollars, since agriculture represents 70% of the country's total exports.

Already in January there was a poor income, which did not reach US$ 1,000 million due to the fall in the wheat harvest and the advancement of soybean sales that there was for the dollar-soybean.

And for the coming months (February, March and April) the forecasts are not encouraging.

Given a considerable decline in soybeans and corn, and the delay in sowing due to lack of moisture, a significant flow of foreign currency would only enter in May.

graph 2

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Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-02-08

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