For ex-US General Ben Hodges, Crimea is the key to Ukraine's success in the war against Russia.
Targeted pinpricks would have to cut off Russian supply lines.
Munich – Ex-US General Ben Hodges is convinced that Ukraine will be able to turn the war on Russia this summer.
He expressed this conviction in an interview with Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative, and the Ukrainian military blogger Taras Berezovets regarding the current situation and future scenarios in the Ukraine war.
The general also noted Ukraine's options in the fight against Russia to target vulnerabilities in Putin's army and put an end to Russia's war of aggression.
Current Ukraine war: “Long-distance precise attacks” against Russia
In Hodge's opinion, "the most important thing is the ability to carry out precise attacks over long distances," said the military expert about a possible strategy in the Ukraine war against Russia.
It is of secondary importance whether these attacks are carried out outside the current situation, by fighter jet, drone or rocket systems.
The aim of these attacks through Ukraine, according to Hodges, should be to attack supply routes and headquarters.
The result of such attacks behind the front lines in the war in Ukraine would be devastating for Vladimir Putin's army, since the "Russian army would suddenly be reduced in its effectiveness".
War in Ukraine now: Russia's spring offensive is probably already in the starting blocks
This tactic may also be a way of bringing the currently feared spring offensive on the anniversary of the war in Ukraine to a standstill or even bring it to a standstill.
Few doubt that Russia is about to launch a new offensive in Ukraine.
The question of "if" no longer arises.
Rather, it is a question of when and where Russia's major offensive will start and what the main goals for the advance will be.
An attack by Russia is also expected on the Ukraine side.
An anonymous Ukrainian military official has
pointed out the danger in the US magazine
Foreign Policy and even thrown a possible time period into the ring.
"In the next ten days we expect a new, huge invasion," the magazine quoted the official as saying.
Jonatan Vseviow, Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was also concerned, according to the magazine: "Something is cooking in the East."
Hodges, on the other hand, is unconvinced of Russia's revenge in the form of a major spring offensive.
Even if the Kremlin could recruit up to 300,000 new fighters for the Russian army, the logistics and battlefield experience are lacking.
A large army is not necessarily a strong army, Hodges said.
End of the Ukraine war: "Crimea is the key"
Instead, the former US general ventured a glimpse into the future and provided a glimpse of how the Ukraine war could come to a successful end for Kyiv.
"If they conquer Crimea, and I believe they will succeed this summer, then everything will fall," Hodges speculated in an interview and then emphasized.
"Crimea is the key."
Hodges' explanation of why Crimea is the key to the possible end of the Ukraine war is that Crimea is an important supply line for Russian troops.
With long-range weapons already promised by the United States, Ukraine could retake the Black Sea peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.
Russia is still receiving supplies for the front via a land route through south-east Ukraine.
Here, too, long-range weapons would have to be used.
Should this scenario really materialize, an end to the war in Ukraine could become a reality and famous political scientist Francis Fukuyama's prognosis that "Putin's defeat is at most a matter of time" could come true.
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