The heavy inheritance game is one of the favorites of world politicians, Argentines among them.
Alberto Fernández is an expert in it.
Three years after taking office, in addition to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, he continues to excuse his lazy administration with what Mauricio Macri "left" him.
In the extensive report that he gave this week to María O'Donnell, for example,
he did it 21 times
.
Macri, in turn, still regrets not having sufficiently exploited what Cristina Kirchner "left" him and, in order not to repeat the mistake, has already begun to open the umbrella in case Together for Change becomes government again.
On Saturday, in La Pampa, he said that "despite
the economic bomb that this government is leaving behind
, the country has a huge future."
They are not the first nor will they be the last to complain about their predecessors.
Except for Cristina, who for almost obvious reasons could not throw sticks at her husband Néstor, he and Duhalde defenestrated De la Rúa, who was protesting against Menem, who was ranting against Alfonsín, who was shooting at the military.
We could go on.
Probably even the Primera Junta and Viceroy Cisneros.
The strong alert launched by Macri was replicated in the document presented on Monday by his coalition, whose National Board met in Palermo and "expressed concern about the serious economic situation that the National Government will leave to the next government (...).
Which will be much worse than the one received in 2015”.
In the second paragraph, economic arguments were mixed with the diagnosis of the former president, who was not at the meeting: "The national leadership expressed itself against the use of financial instruments in pesos, adjusted in dollars with interest rates impossible to pay, or in dollars at usurious rates.
With this, the National Government
does nothing more than speculate with leaving a time bomb for
the next Government”.
The ruling party picked up the gauntlet.
Sergio Massa's deputy, Gabriel Rubinstein, took the lead.
In addition to criticizing Macrista's management, especially
due to the debt he contracted with the IMF
-already a classic of the entire arc of the FdT-, the economist maintained, in essence, that the minister's strategy did not imply the risk of an explosion and that the debt in pesos was manageable.
The discussion turned to whether the criticism of JxC could not cause a quake that would help detonate the economy.
That it would work as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
With an effect similar to
the famous declarations of Guido Di Tella, in 1989, about a "recontra-high" dollar
that contributed a lot to the early departure of Alfonsín de la Rosada.
"Playing with fire," said Sebastián Galmarini, director of Banco Provincia and Massa's brother-in-law.
The crossings between one and the other multiplied as between television panelists.
However, beyond technical issues, you don't have to be an economist to worry about
the possible consequences
of certain specific data.
Example: the gap (91%) and the exchange rate delay;
the high and tight debt maturities between April and June (some $2 trillion per month, complicated post-PASO refinancing);
the ball of liabilities of the Central Bank ($11 billion, especially Leliqs).
Plus inflation (95%), the fiscal imbalance and the lack of reserves.
And the tense internal official party, which is not listed on the Stock Market, but has direct effects on the desire to risk money from potential investors.
Hard not to see
lit matches
everywhere.
It is also difficult not to think that Massa, who applies patch after patch, is gambling that it will reach him to avoid the outbreak.
And that, in any case, the substantive solutions - which will surely imply unpopular measures - are tried,
if given the leather
, whoever inherits it in December.
And if the successor can't, he will in turn spend much of his management trying to avoid a collapse, talking about what they "left" him.
Finally, it is difficult to avoid the feeling that we have
already seen this film
and that it has nothing to do with comedy: inheritance is always heavy and in the end it hits us all.
look too
The economic controversy revolves around the length of the fuse and the size of the bomb
The debt numbers with Alberto Fernández and Mauricio Macri: in both administrations it continued to rise
