Siko starts in Munich on Friday.
In the traditional preliminary report, experts warn the liberal democracies that a systemic competition is underway.
Berlin/Munich - The Munich Security Conference (Siko/MSK) starts on Friday - the annual meeting will focus on one thing in particular: the Ukraine war.
In the MSK report, which is traditionally published in advance, experts assess Vladimir Putin's war as a sign of increasingly bitter system competition.
State leaders are agreed that the important course for the future international order is now being set.
The liberal order must become more attractive - and take criticism seriously, the Siko experts warn.
According to the new report, it can be observed in Ukraine that an autocratic power wants to destroy the sovereignty of a neighboring democracy.
Along with China's tacit support, this is emblematic of a "profound challenge."
The goal of autocrats is "to undermine fundamental principles of the international order," said Tobias Bunde, co-author of the report published on Monday, in Berlin.
Munich Security Conference: "Fundamentals at stake" - warning in the year of the Ukraine war
The Ukraine war shows "very clearly that the competition between different and partly incompatible visions for the international order is coming to a head," Bunde explained - and practically in passing issued a questionable verdict to Western politicians: This is one of the few theses on which “in Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Berlin and Paris there is still agreement today”.
Everywhere, people assumed “that something fundamental is at stake here and that the competition for the order of the future has entered a critical phase,” Bunde continued.
The Munich Security Index 2023 included in the report shows a high perceived risk of military threats compared to the previous year.
Representative citizens in the G7 countries, the Brics countries with the exception of Russia (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) and, for the first time, in Ukraine were surveyed for the index.
On the one hand, it is specifically about Russia, but also about an attack with nuclear weapons, Bunde said.
"Russia's nuclear saber-rattling in the wake of the war of aggression against Ukraine has raised concerns around the world," the report said.
But according to the index, "non-traditional risks" such as climate change are not perceived as less important.
Siko: "Clear wake-up call" - liberal democracy must become more attractive
Co-author Sophie Eisentraut warned that liberal democracies are not just about preserving the status quo.
"Perhaps the more difficult task will be to renew the current order in such a way that it becomes more attractive again for the broader international community," said Eisentraut.
The reluctance of many countries in the international South to condemn Russia's war of aggression is "a clear wake-up call" in this regard.
Legitimate criticism of the international order must be taken more seriously.
A "system competition" is evident in "global infrastructures" - keyword "New Silk Road".
It also fits that Siko, according to its boss Christoph Heusgen, wants to give more space to the countries of the Global South this time.
"We can only guarantee this international rule-based order worldwide as the basis for our continued coexistence if we involve the Global South more," Heusgen said on Monday.
Putin's Russia not invited to Siko - Iran and AfD are also left out
According to Heusgen, in addition to the question of what the international order will look like in the future, the conference should also deal with how political leaders can be held accountable for human rights violations and war crimes.
But climate change, food security, health and cyber technology are also important issues.
For Heusgen, it is the first year as conference leader after the departure of long-time Siko boss Wolfgang Ischinger.
According to Heusgen, more than 150 high-ranking government officials have confirmed their attendance, as well as parliamentarians from all over the world, including Ukraine.
Representatives from Iran and Russia were not invited this year.
The AfD was also the only parliamentary group not to be invited, said Heusgen.
"That is the decision of the MSK chairman and I have decided that we will not invite the AfD."
The 59th Munich Security Conference will take place from February 17th to 19th.
Among others, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), French President Emmanuel Macron, US Vice President Kamala Harris and Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi will take part.
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