The Russian state is set to become "
more authoritarian and militarized
" in the years to come, the Norwegian intelligence services estimated on Monday, February 13, for whom Russia and China remain the main threats to the Nordic country.
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“
There is no turning back
” possible, hammered the number two Norwegian military intelligence, Lars Nordrum, during the presentation of an annual assessment of the risks weighing on Norway, a member country of NATO border of Russia.
Norway at the center of the game
“
The Russian state will be more authoritarian and militarized
,” he said, referring to Russian public opinion manipulated by propaganda and Moscow's closer ties with other authoritarian regimes.
"
Russian interests will not be compatible with those of the West
."
This annual risk assessment, the first since the outbreak of war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, concludes, like the previous ones, that Russia and China are the main threats to Norway's security and interests.
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The war was "
a catastrophe for Russia
", affirmed Lars Nordrum, referring to the effects of the trade sanctions imposed by Western countries, the international isolation of Moscow and the "
more than 100,000 Russian soldiers (...) killed or wounded
" in Ukraine.
The conflict, he noted, has increased Norway's geopolitical importance, in particular because it has made it the main gas supplier to the European continent in place of Russia.
“
European countries are going to be dependent on Norwegian energy supplies for many years
,” he noted.
“Pressure on energy security”
The domestic intelligence services (PST) therefore believe that Russia, which tried to "
exert pressure on energy security
" last year, "
will try to collect as much intelligence as possible
" on the oil sector, gas and electricity in Norway this year.
Sabotage of Norwegian energy infrastructure by Russia is "
unlikely
" in 2023, however, judged the head of the PST, Beate Gangas.
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"
Acts of sabotage can nevertheless become a topical scenario if Russia still wants to escalate the conflict with NATO and the West
", specifies the PST report, redacted from the most confidential information.
The alleged sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines last year in the neighboring Baltic Sea, an act for which Russia and the United States mutually accuse each other, had led Norway to tighten security around its strategic sites, including its energy facilities.