Damage assessment: how much will reconstruction cost after the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria

in this category the costs associated with the impact on health, education, housing, culture or nutrition are estimated.

Damage to infrastructure and physical assets in these fundamental social areas for society are estimated, as well as the resulting human and macroeconomic impacts.

El Salvador prepared in 2022 a very interesting specific guide to assess recovery needs in housing, health and education.

the costs associated with water and sanitation, community infrastructure, energy and electricity, transport and telecommunications are estimated.

In the affected areas, thousands of buildings have suffered extensive damage, telephone lines have been disrupted and there are power outages.

This infrastructure is key, since it can lead to indirect costs such as the paralysis of the means of production, humanitarian access or economic activity in sectors such as tourism.

the impact on agriculture, livestock and fishing, commerce, industry and tourism is estimated.

Although the earthquake in Turkey has not affected the main economic centers or tourist regions, it is critical to assess it, especially since many vulnerable families live in the affected regions in both countries, whose economic status is fragile and whose livelihoods may be greatly affected by Earthquake.

the impact on the fiscal deficit or the trade balance will be key in the coming months and years.

In Turkey, the affected regions represent 9% of GDP, 15% of the population, 15% of agricultural production, 9% of industry and between 6% and 8% of foreign trade.

The visible effect on the GDP measure can be difficult to analyze, since the losses do not appear directly in the calculation, but the reconstruction tasks do add up.

It is critical to also estimate the impact on financial institutions, banking and non-banking.

In this type of situation, it is advisable to suspend operations on the stock market, as has happened in Turkey after the financial market lost 16% (representing market capitalization losses of 32,648 million euros).

In 2022, inflation in Turkey reached 86%, so many citizens had decided to invest their savings in stocks to protect themselves from the loss of value of their money.

issues that may collaterally affect others are analyzed, such as governance, the environment or the differentiated impact on gender aspects.

For many analysts, the impact on governance or politics can make a difference.

In Turkey, there are political elections in May 2023 and the management of the emergency will be key to their results.

In Syria, control of the north of the country is divided between the government, Kurdish-led forces and other rebel groups.

It will be important to analyze the potential impact on the fragility of this governance and whether it can trigger some type of conflict.

the economic effects on human development and poverty are estimated.

In Turkey, the 10 affected provinces are among the poorest, so their effects may be more severe as they are less resilient.

It is even more serious in Syria: Aleppo, one of the regions most affected by the earthquake, is also one of the regions most affected by the conflict.

For more seriousness, the freezing temperatures and torrential rains were making rescue work difficult.

The region is experiencing a crisis within a crisis.