Is Russia's major offensive in the Ukraine war already underway?
Or is it yet to come?
Military expert Mick Ryan has a clear opinion - and provides reasons.
Munich – February 24 marks the first anniversary of the Ukraine war.
Experts therefore assume that Vladimir Putin could now strike the big blow.
The word major offensive is in the room.
Some war observers have even gone so far as to claim that such an offensive has long since begun.
Or are the attacks in eastern Ukraine, which are currently increasing, just a test?
Especially in the region around Bachmut and Wuhledar there is fierce fighting.
So far, Ukraine has withstood the attacks - probably also because of a new mine tactic.
According to military expert Mick Ryan, however, the violent wave of attacks could only be a harbinger of what is now to come in the Ukraine war.
Ryan shared his thoughts on this in detail on Twitter.
Russia's new offensive not even started yet?
Expert believes the big part is yet to come
According to the ex-general, it is "unlikely" that the current attacks represent the major offensive by Vladimir Putin's troops that Russian military bloggers are hoping for.
In this case, the ongoing attacks are merely "sounding and reconnaissance missions" to test the strength, dispositions and possible reactions of the Ukrainian side.
But if these are just the harbingers, when will the big offensive start and above all why?
Ryan gives three reasons for this.
The first and, according to him, the “most important” reason is the political side.
"Putin needs a win," Ryan clarifies.
If only to be able to show on the anniversary of the war that the invasion is progressing.
The attacks on energy infrastructure only resulted in Ukraine receiving even more aid from the West.
A win would not only bring important land gains, but could also bring about a "change in momentum".
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Russian soldiers on a training ground in Donetsk region.
Allegedly, Putin is planning a new major offensive at the front.
© Alexei Alexandrov / dpa
Reasons for the upcoming major Russian offensive: Putin urgently needs a success
Reason two, according to Ryan: A major Russian offensive would make it possible to thwart counterattacks by Ukraine by putting Volodymyr Zelenskyy's troops on the defensive.
"The Russians will use their attacks in the coming weeks to ruin at least some of Ukraine's 2023 offensives," Ryan said.
Ryan's third and final reason: Russian commanders will be interested in having their forces in a better position and moving to more easily defendable terrain once Western tank shipments arrive in Ukraine.
"In the second quarter of 2023, Ukraine's offensive potential will be significantly greater," notes Ryan.
That of the Russians in the Ukraine war, on the other hand, is currently at least “questionable”.
According to Ryan, attacks in particular require "well-trained and equipped soldiers and first-rate managers, as well as detailed planning".
The many inexperienced Russian recruits are not at the same level. It is all the more important for Putin to get back into a better position quickly.
A Year of Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia
A Year of Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia
Success through major offensive in the Ukraine war?
Expert Ryan assesses the chances as low
Nonetheless, Ryan believes it is "unlikely" that the Russians' major offensive will make a real "breakthrough, penetrating deep into Ukrainian territory and overturning their defenses."
The battles in Bachmut and Wuhledar have recently shown that the Russian units are in a bad way.
In the latter place, Putin's army is said to have even lost an entire elite unit.
Nevertheless, Ryan assumes: "We will very likely see a series of rolling Russian attacks along the eastern front".
Meanwhile, the pressure on Ukraine is also growing.
The USA is now vehemently demanding results from Kiev in the Ukraine war.
(han)
List of rubrics: © Alexei Alexandrov / dpa
