A final round of observation before the big show of force on March 7th.
On the eve of the fifth day of mobilization against the pension reform project, the executive does not expect an immediate wave of anger.
According to the latest forecasts brought to the attention of Le
Figaro
, analysts at Place Beauvau estimate that between 450,000 and 650,000 people will take to the streets of France this Thursday.
Either a mobilization that would be in sharp decline compared to that of last Saturday, which brought together 933,000 people, especially among families taking advantage of the weekend to pound the pavement.
That is also half of January 31 which had brought together, according to the Ministry of the Interior, some 1.27 million opponents of the government project.
Surprised by the scale of the first mobilization on January 19, which had mobilized 1.1 million people, the intelligence services attribute this foreseeable ebb to a "
holiday effect
", in which are the pupils of zone A who includes the academies of Besançon, Bordeaux, Grenoble, Limoges, Lyon and Poitiers as well as those of zone B comprising Aix-Marseille, Amiens, Caen, Lille, Nancy-Metz, Nantes, Nice, Orléans-Tours, Reims, Rennes, Rouen and Strasbourg.
“
In addition to this demobilizing period, there is also a beginning of weariness that lurks in the processions, just after 4 consecutive days of action and before the call for a general strike on March 7,” an informed source told
Le
Figaro
.
The “France of the sub-prefectures” mobilized
For the time being, however, the discontent movement remains solid around the eight organizing unions.
Police analysts are convinced: the crack, so feared by the front of the opponents of the reform project, could occur the day after this deadline.
Indeed, the hardline position going as far as blocking the country and advocated in particular by the most radical of the CGT may not be followed by more “ reformist
” organizations
such as the CFDT.
According to our information, the State fears a paralysis in the mining and energy sectors, ports and docks as well as road and rail transport.
In the regions, the mobilization remains deeply rooted.
“
More than ever, the opposition is mobilizing France from the sub-prefectures
”, deciphers a police strategist.
Surprised by the mobilization in the medium and small towns of France on January 19, the specialized services did not see the 4,000 demonstrators coming to Guéret (Creuse), the 5,000 to Troyes or even to Épinal.
And even less the 1,000 listed in Verdun or the 550 in Saint-Junien, in Haute-Vienne.
“Unheard of
,” whispered a police executive at the end of January.
This shows the extent of the crystallization of anger down to the depths of the territories, where the feeling of downgrading predominates.
We are in the continuity of the spirit of "yellow vests" whose anger is not settled.
It is also in Albi, a city in Occitania which gathered 10,000 demonstrators according to the police at each of the first two demonstrations, that the eight general secretaries of the trade union organizations met this Thursday.
Still according to our information, between 40,000 and 70,000 demonstrators are expected in Paris.
Rennes and Nantes, like milk on the fire
A smaller crowd does not mean fewer threats of violence, quite the contrary.
"To the extent that the parades are expected to be more sparse, the" black blocks "are likely to have more space to take action before returning to the ranks"
, observes a specialist in the maintenance of order.
If the protest struggles to take hold in the high school and student milieu, the ultra-left strongholds (Grenoble, Lyon, Toulouse, Montpellier) will be scrutinized like milk on fire.
Rennes, scene of scuffles and where three CRS were injured, including one seriously, last Saturday by a Molotov cocktail, will be particularly watched.
It will be the same in Nantes, where the most radical movements have called for a "
torchlight march
and at high risk bringing together a whole galaxy made up of “
antifas
”, “
anti-capitalists
”, anarcho-autonomists but also feminists or even “
eco-warriors
” close to the Extinction Rebellion movement.
In total, no less than 200 parades should form Thursday throughout the territory.
The law enforcement system, which has so far fluctuated between 10,000 and 11,000 police officers, including 4,000 in Paris, should remain substantial.
Everything will be done to prevent the street, hitherto set up as a model with regard to the atmosphere of chaos at the National Assembly, from melting away.