On February 11, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin was interviewed by Russian media and expressed his views on the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war. Among them, the statement related to the negotiation was quoted by many Chinese media, and Vershinin was His speech concluded that "Russia is ready to negotiate unconditionally with Ukraine".
This news sparked heated discussions on the Chinese Internet, with some voices even thinking that the Russian army is about to surrender and the war is about to cease fire.
In all fairness, looking forward to peace on the eve of the end of the Russo-Ukrainian War is indeed what the general public desires.
However, if we want to base the ceasefire expectation on Vershinen's speech reported by the media, it may only be expected to fail.
According to interviewed articles published by Russian media, Vershinen emphasized the United States' interference in the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, as well as Russia's requirements for the negotiations.
Vershinen first recalled that the Russia-Ukraine negotiation process had already started, and both officials met in Belarus and Turkey and achieved certain results, but in the end they were stopped at the request of Kiev. "Actually, this decision came from Washington. and Brussels".
Vershinen went on to point out that any hostilities must end in negotiations, "We have said that we will be ready for such negotiations, but only for negotiations without preconditions, negotiations must be based on existing realities."
In other words, Vershinen’s so-called “negotiations without preconditions” is not actually a statement of Russia’s position, but a request from Ukraine and NATO countries to face up to the fact that Russia has occupied part of Ukraine’s territory and held four referendums on joining Russia , the parties should conduct negotiations based on this fait accompli instead of proposing other "preconditions" that deviate from reality.
Therefore, rather than saying that Vershinen expressed "Russia is ready to negotiate unconditionally with Ukraine", it is better to say that he emphasized Russia's negotiating conditions. The intention is not only to show Russia's "willingness to negotiate unconditionally", but to emphasize that Russia is unwilling Give in under existing conditions.
Vershinen's speech, to a certain extent, revealed the key to the unstoppable war: the bottom line between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to bridge, and the United States has not yet reached a consensus on promoting talks.
On February 9, 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Swedish Prime Minister Klaus Ulf Kristersson attends the EU leaders summit in Brussels, Belgium.
(Reuters)
How to deal with the Russian land occupation
The first is the difference in the bottom line between Russia and Ukraine. To put it more clearly, it is the issue of the ownership of the land occupied by Russia.
At the beginning of the war, Russia announced two major strategic goals of demilitarization and de-Nazification. The former is to force Ukraine to disarm and become Russia’s protectorate, while the latter aims to reverse Ukraine’s anti-Russian trend. Possible options include demanding Ukraine amended its constitution to establish neutrality, banned anti-Russian political parties, and overthrew the regime of Volodymyr Zelensky.
However, because the Russian army failed to defeat Ukraine's will to resist and the flames of war continued after NATO intervened, it is very difficult for Moscow to achieve the two goals of demilitarization and de-Nazification.
Therefore, looking back at Vladimir Putin's series of measures in the second half of 2022, we can find that Russia's strategic goal has clearly shifted to consolidating the status quo of occupation.
From September 23 to 27, referendums were held in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson; on September 30, Putin signed a decree officially "incorporating" the four Ukrainian referendums into Russia, and held a grand ceremony at the Kremlin, inviting the leaders of the four places to attend the meeting.
Then the Russian army withdrew from the right bank (i.e. the west bank) of the Dnipro River (West Bank) in Kherson State. Although the above-mentioned efforts were once dusty, it still did not change Russia’s overall goal of consolidating the occupied territories, and Russia continued to use this as the bottom line , put forward negotiating demands to Ukraine.
However, Ukraine also has its own bottom line, that is, the Russian army must withdraw from the occupied territory. In addition to the above-mentioned "four places entering Russia", it also includes Crimea, which was incorporated into Russia after 2014.
On February 28, 2022, when representatives of Russia and Ukraine held the first round of negotiations in Belarus, Ukraine conveniently requested the withdrawal of Russian troops from Crimea and Donbass; Concession on the ground, saying that NATO is not prepared to discuss the issue of Ukraine joining the organization within 5 to 10 years, and Ukraine is willing to discuss a "non-NATO" security model, but regarding the issue of Russian occupation, Ukraine still insists on the original principle that Russian troops must withdraw bottom line.
The picture shows Russian President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by officials, attending the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Soviet Union in Volgograd Oblast on February 2.
(Reuters)
Judging from the negotiation process, the occupied territory was not the initial focus of the two parties.
As mentioned earlier, the transformation of Ukraine was Russia’s initial strategic goal. Therefore, the military occupation at the beginning of the war was more of a means of exerting pressure than a substantive merger. As long as Ukraine is willing to make concessions on key issues such as NATO and disarmament, Russia may not be unable to Donbass adjusted its strength between independence or mergers; of course, when the hope of transforming Ukraine failed, Moscow had no choice but to bite the bullet and move towards substantive occupation in order to explain internally and prove that special military operations were not in vain, which led to continuous increase in follow-up investment. And the talks between Russia and Ukraine.
As for this stalemate, it is not that there is no solution to the international proposal.
On May 23, 2022, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made a speech at the Davos Forum in Switzerland, calling on the Russian army to return to the demarcation line before the "special military operation" on February 24. Ukraine can do this Negotiations with Russia have begun; however, as the Russian army continued to advance, Kissinger no longer emphasized the statement that "the Russian army has returned to the pre-war demarcation line" when he accepted an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank, on September 30. , instead arguing for an internationally supervised vote on self-determination in the disputed territory, tantamount to suggesting that Ukraine may have to "territory for peace".
Coincidentally, American tycoon Elon Musk also proposed a four-point plan for "Ukraine-Russia peace" in October: first, hold another referendum in the Russian-occupied Ukraine, supervised by the United Nations; Sovereignty of the Crimean peninsula; third, ensuring water supply to Crimea; and fourth, granting neutral status to Ukraine.
Musk said that the above situation is likely to be the final result of this war, but early negotiations can reduce the price. He also pointed out that Ukraine is unlikely to win a full-scale war. "If you care about the Ukrainian people, please seek peace."
A closer look at Musk's proposal also hints at Ukraine's abandonment of the Russian-occupied territory and a pragmatic approach to future arrangements.
But today, there is still no consensus between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine still insists on the bottom line of negotiations for the retreat of the Russian army, while Russia continues to increase its investment and maintain the front-line offensive. There is still no room for negotiation between the two sides.
The key to this phenomenon, apart from the political needs of Russia and Ukraine, is the U.S. policy of aiding Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced on January 25 that he would provide Ukraine with 31 M1 Abrams tanks.
(Reuters)
Why does the United States consider
Regardless of whether Vershinen's so-called "U.S. asked Ukraine to stop negotiations" is true or not, the U.S. is indeed an important force supporting Ukraine's war so far, and its policy toward Ukraine will certainly affect the direction of the war.
At the beginning of the war, the United States once regarded Ukraine as an abandoned son. Not only was it preparing to evacuate its citizens, it also suggested that Zelensky go into exile.
However, after the Ukrainian army demonstrated its extraordinary will to fight bloody battles, the United States saw an opportunity to "bleed Russia", and thus began to upgrade its military aid to Ukraine and arrange for NATO's intelligence and investigation system to enter the field.
Judging from the results, there is indeed a generation gap between the Russian army and NATO. After NATO actually intervened, the large-scale military mobilization of the Russian army had nothing to hide, and it could only advance on a small scale. Under such circumstances, the Russian army was unable to launch an offensive and make a large advance. In the end, it had to adopt the local method of attracting the Ukrainian army to gather, and then mobilizing large-scale artillery fire to annihilate it. The will to resist, forcing Ukraine to accept Russia's negotiating terms.
However, the Western military aid led by the United States also gave Ukraine the confidence to fight a war of attrition.
Judging from the country's size and industrial base, Ukraine's military industrial production capacity is not as good as Russia's. Months of war have strained its ammunition inventory, and it can only increasingly rely on Western military aid led by the United States.
In order to ensure the willingness of the West to aid, the Ukrainian army needs to hand over the results of the battle so that the European and American political parties can persuade the internal "negotiation promotion faction". Therefore, there will be major counterattacks in Kharkov, Kherson and other places. The former benefited from Russia. The garrison of the Russian army was weak, and the latter suffered heavy casualties, and it was effective after the Russian army voluntarily retreated due to logistical problems.
In Ukraine's consideration, it also hopes to frustrate Russia's will to war and force the latter to accept its own negotiation premise.
Therefore, in the final analysis, when the United States is highly involved in the war and Russia and Ukraine are both persistent, the so-called Russia-Uzbekistan negotiations are essentially US-Russia negotiations.
If the United States is willing to reduce or even stop its military aid to Ukraine, Ukraine may only accept the ending of "territory for peace"; but if Europe and the United States continue to provide military aid, the Putin regime will be forced to suspend special military operations due to the outbreak of a political crisis due to the protracted war. Action, Ukraine may gain more advantages in negotiations.
The NATO Ukraine Defense Liaison Group, responsible for coordinating military aid to Ukraine, held a meeting on January 20. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with US Secretary of Defense Austin through video.
(Reuters)
However, there is disagreement within the United States on this issue.
Some voices believe that it is impossible for Ukraine’s vitality to be consumed for a long time, and it is even more impossible for the United States to provide unlimited military aid to Ukraine. In other words, the United States will stop military aid one day, and Ukraine will also surrender one day. It is better to take advantage of the fact that the Ukrainian army has achieved certain counter-offensive results, and persuade Ukraine to accept it as soon as it is good, and exchange territory for peace.
This force collided with the mid-term elections in the United States, which had a certain political effect. Since November 2022, there have been several war reports in different directions in the American media.
On November 5, the "Washington Post" stated that the Biden (Joe Biden) administration is privately persuading high-level Ukrainians to signal that they are willing to negotiate with Russia, and hopes that it will revise its public position of "not negotiating with Putin" to ensure that European and American countries can While appeasing public opinion, continue to support Ukraine; The Wall Street Journal also quoted sources on the 6th that White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan maintained secret communications with Putin's senior advisers and called on Ukraine to show willingness to negotiate.
However, on November 10, the US "New York Times" re-released the news, saying that although the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark A. Officials objected.
Judging from the results, this wave of reports is more of an effect on the mid-term elections, appeasing Democratic voters who are dissatisfied with high inflation, and consolidating Biden's ruling foundation, but the negotiators still failed to win.
On November 14, it was Russia's turn to release the news.
The Russian media "Kommersant" exclusively reported that the U.S.-Russian delegation held secret negotiations in Ankara, Turkey on the same day. The Russian delegation included Sergei Naryshkin, the director of the intelligence agency, and the U.S. representatives included the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. Director of Intelligence Burns (William Burns).
Although the two sides agreed that the content of the discussion was to control the nuclear threat, but because the timing and the identity of the delegation were too sensitive, the outside world speculated that it was related to the final arrangement of the Russia-Ukraine war.
On December 21, in Washington, USA, Zelensky presented the Ukrainian flag to Pelosi and US Vice President Kamala Harris.
The flag is from the Bakhmut garrison and bears the signatures of front-line soldiers.
(Reuters)
On February 1, 2023, the Swiss media "New Zurich Zeitung" exclusively revealed that CIA Director Burns had secretly traveled to Moscow in January to provide Russia with a peace plan drafted by Biden, which included "land In exchange for peace, Russia will be allowed to retain "20% of Ukraine's territory".
Although both the United States and Russia have denied the content of the report, given that there has always been a voice in the White House of "let it go as soon as it is good", what the "New Zurich Zeitung" said may not be entirely groundless.
Ukraine, however, is not insensible to the vacillation of the United States.
On November 15, 2022, a Russian-made anti-aircraft missile accidentally flew into Poland, killing two Polish citizens. Zelensky immediately issued a video speech, blaming Russia for the missile attack on Poland, saying it was an attack on "collective Security” violations and “major escalations”.
However, the United States, NATO, and even Poland all stated that the Ukrainian air defense missile system should be activated by mistake. Zelensky still insisted that the missile belonged to Russia.
Freezing three feet does not happen in a day. Once the Pandora's box of war is opened, it is not easy to close it again.
Judging from the current situation, if the United States and Russia had not reached a secret agreement, adopted the North Korean plan for Ukraine, and reached an armistice, they would have to wait until one of the parties between Russia and Ukraine could not afford the rising political costs of the war and decided to cease fire and make concessions.
In the final analysis, the truce involves the exhaustion of Russia and Ukraine's respective confidence, and it is even more related to the political game between the two factions of the United States to promote talks and continue to aid. Without a balance between the two conditions, peace will eventually be difficult.
What did the media say that Russia is willing to negotiate unconditionally with Ukraine?
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vershinin emphasized that Russia is willing to negotiate, but it is negotiating on the basis of facing up to the existing basis and without setting any preconditions.
In other words, it is for Ukraine to give up the premise of the withdrawal of Russian troops.
For Russia and Ukraine to be able to negotiate a ceasefire, which two conditions are related to a balance?
One side, Russia and Ukraine, can no longer engage in a war of attrition, and the US negotiating faction has also gained support.
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