Some analysts predict that
the Javier Milei wave
could be so big that it would not leave any of the two members of the crack standing.
In the meantime, while waiting for that eventual political tsunami, there is a particularity: from Frente de Todos, the furthest pole from the libertarian discourse, they believe that the presence of the economist will be essential to weaken Juntos por el Cambio and have some chance of triumph.
In its own way,
the ruling party already has a candidate
.
It is not any of the members of the table this Thursday on Matheu street.
The main pro-government bet today is called Milei.
The data appears in a summer 2023 burst of electoral polls.
Clarín
was able to see, in a matter of hours,
three studies that circulate in Together for Change
.
Two were commissioned by one of its main leaders and have the "confidential" stamp.
The third was done by a consultancy that usually measures for the opposition.
In all three there are
very powerful numbers from Milei
.
In one of those "secret" polls, the deputy from La Libertad Avanza appears with the
highest electoral ceiling
: he is the only one that exceeds 40% among those who "would vote for him for sure" and those who "could vote for him."
There, too, he is
the most chosen for an eventual PASS
, with more than 20 points.
In the other survey with a broadcast ban, the alert is (much) higher.
Eight first-round scenarios for the presidential election
are evaluated
, with only one candidate for each of the main forces.
In the eight measurements
Milei
and the candidates of Together for Change lead and the Frente de Todos is in a technical tie.
All in gaps so tight that anything could happen.
Music to the ears of an officialism that creaks politically and fails to tame the economy.
Says
one of the pollsters who best predicted the 2021 legislatures
: "I see only one scenario in which the ruling party can win. Let inflation drop, (Sergio) Massa be the candidate and end up in a runoff with Milei. There, the voter The more moderate Juntos may turn the balance in favor of the Frente de Todos, more out of fear of Milei than out of love for Massa."
-
But, how do Massa and Milei end up in a ballot?
Today it does not seem likely
,
Clarín
told him .
- Larreta should beat Bullrich in the primary, let it be a bloody internal one, and the toughest voters of Together for Change could go with Milei for the general. I do not see it very feasible, but it seems to me the only way for the Government to have a chance
, the analyst completes.
Buenos Aires effect
But the K bet is not limited to the presidential one.
Perhaps with even more power,
the ruling party clings to the figure of Milei to dream of a reelection of Axel Kicillof
.
Even though the governor is faring better today than the ruling party's presidential candidates, history shows that the possibility of a massive ticket cut usually dies in theory.
So should separate the election?
Neither.
Today the greatest benefit for the Frente de Todos could be
a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate that divides the opposition vote
.
And what better than Milei pulling from a presidential nomination to get that cut in a unified election.
In its own way,
the 2015 Buenos Aires scenario could be repeated
, when the Massa-Felipe Solá duo bordered 20 points in the Province and allowed María Eugenia Vidal (attached to Mauricio Macri) to beat Aníbal Fernández.
Hypotheses that expose weaknesses.
look also
K alert for a survey: Cristina Kirchner fell in 18 provinces and in 9 she is worse than Alberto Fernández
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