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Signs of violent Istanbul earthquake intensify - top geologist warns: "It's pretty close"

2023-02-17T12:05:48.571Z


Experts have long been certain that a violent earthquake is imminent in Istanbul. New research results support the assumption.


Experts have long been certain that a violent earthquake is imminent in Istanbul.

New research results support the assumption.

Istanbul - In the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria, the death toll is constantly being revised upwards.

Although there are still isolated miraculous rescues, such as that of a baby born under the rubble in Syria, but with temperatures around freezing point, the hope of finding survivors is dwindling among rescuers - volunteers from Bavaria are also starting out in the crisis area.

An earthquake of this magnitude and magnitude is also threatening Istanbul.

Experts are sure of that.

The question is not if, but when.

It could happen in the next few days or in 20 years.

Scientists have been warning for decades.

After the current earthquake in Turkey and Syria, concerns are now also growing in the metropolis on the Bosporus.

Geologist Sengör warns of a severe earthquake on the Bosphorus: "Move away from the center of Istanbul!"

This also has to do with an accident that happened on November 23, 2022.

At that time, the earth trembled in Düzce, 200 kilometers east of Istanbul.

The quake was "terribly bad news," said the renowned Turkish geologist Celal Sengör at the time.

The 67-year-old, who also enjoys a great international reputation, taught as a professor at Istanbul Technical University until he retired.

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According to geologists, Istanbul is threatened by a severe earthquake.

© picture alliance/dpa/XinHua |

Osman Orsal

Sengör sees the Düzce quake (magnitude 5.9) as a harbinger of an imminent severe earthquake on the Bosporus.

Afterwards, Sengör told the broadcaster

Habertürk

that this was "perhaps the last chance of a warning".

He even recommended to the interviewer: "Move away from the center of Istanbul!" Along with Italy and Greece, Turkey is particularly at risk of earthquakes in Europe.

Earthquake in Istanbul 'pretty close', experts say

Drastic words, from someone who should know, and which he now - after the earthquake in south-east Turkey -

repeated to

Habertürk .

“There will be an earthquake in Istanbul that will be as severe as the current one.

Our initial estimate was 7.8 magnitude,” said Sengör.

"It's pretty close."

His forecasts have now been substantiated by scientists from the German Research Center for Geosciences.

With the help of artificial intelligence (AI), the team led by Patrizia Martínez-Garzón was able to identify and evaluate many smaller tremors in the area around the Schwachlu peninsula in the Sea of ​​Marmara south of Istanbul, which have so far remained hidden in the measurement data.

Researchers are using artificial intelligence to make worrying observations

Seismometers were placed in boreholes and recorded local seismicity.

Using AI analysis, a "strong influence of tidal water level changes on local seismicity" was demonstrated for the first time, Martínez-Garzón reported to the TV station Welt.

The data show: The number of small earthquakes increases when sea levels rise again after a fall.

However, the fluctuations in sea level could only be discovered through the use of AI.

This effect worries researchers.

"If even such small stress fluctuations due to sea level changes are enough to trigger seismicity, this could indicate that the local faults in Armenlu are on the verge of failure," Martínez-Garzón sums up.

Expected severe earthquake around Istanbul could claim up to 100,000 lives

The Armenlu and Istanbul region is part of the North Anatolian fault system.

The main branch of the fault stretches directly between Istanbul andarmelu.

The last time there was an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 was in 1999, which claimed the lives of around 20,000 people.

An earthquake in the region would be devastating even today.

Around 16 million people live in Istanbul alone.

According to a study by the Foundation for Urban Transformation (Kentsev), an earthquake measuring 7.1 to 7.7 could destroy 491,000 of Istanbul's 1.2 million buildings.

About 13,000 houses could collapse completely.

Death tolls are estimated at between 40,000 and 100,000.

So far, more than 11,000 fatalities have been counted in the earthquake in southeastern Turkey and Syria (as of Wednesday afternoon, February 8).

(mt)

List of rubrics: © picture alliance/dpa/XinHua |

Osman Orsal

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-02-17

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