As the star lawyer in the trial for the murder of Fernando Báez Sosa,
Fernando Burlando
was the figure who had the most screen time during the summer.
And, perhaps even more important, with that exposure he managed to improve/wash his image.
So much so that he emboldened him to resume an old desire: to be
a candidate for Buenos Aires governor
.
And it was enough that the criminal lawyer whitewashed his intentions on TV for a pollster to come out and measure him.
Clarín
accessed this study by
Federico González
, a well-known analyst who, among other works, measured elections for Sergio Massa.
On February 9 and 10, the consultant surveyed
1,400 cases
in the Province and evaluated two scenarios, precisely changing the "role" of Burlando.
In one of PASO's hypotheses, he presented him as an "independent" candidate. In the other, he was the representative of Javier Milei for that fight. This variant is not whimsical: that of the lawyer is one of the names that sounds to occupy that strategic postulation.
Before going into the numbers, González clarifies his
"inclusion criteria for the identified candidates"
.
The leaders that appear meet one of these
three conditions
:
- The candidate has declared that he will present himself as such.
- Although he has not made it explicit, the candidate carries out actions that can be classified as campaign actions.
- Although he has not made it explicit, the political analysis allows us to conjecture the possibility that the candidate presents himself as such.
It is because of this breadth that the scenarios posed by the report are multitudinous.
For governor, for example, they have
17 and 18 applicants
.
With Burlando as "independent"
The
first hypothesis
that González offers is the broadest,
with Burlando as an independent candidate
.
There, two applicants from the Frente de Todos and eight from Juntos por el Cambio face each other in PASO;
then, all separately, they join (in addition to the lawyer), a "candidate" for Milei, José Luis Espert, three non-K Peronists, Romina del Plá on the left and the nationalist Santiago Cúneo.
A priori, it seems like an
unlikely scenario
.
Juntos' internship should be reduced, although it could include Espert.
And it is difficult that there is a non-K Peronist trio: one of those mentioned is even Emilio Monzó, from JxC.
But the statistical game is worth it, especially when there are more than five months to go before the primaries and the alliances are not even confirmed.
And it serves, of course, to
evaluate if there is some water for the pool that Burlando throws
.
Today it seems so.
Although the lawyer is far from the big fight, he adds 9.3% in this first case, a percentage that
can be key to twisting the balance
towards one of the two sides of the crack.
In this dispute, and in line with other polls, the Frente de Todos appears above, with Axel Kicillof cut.
The governor adds 27.9% and the ruling party grows to 32.2% with 4.3% contributed by Martín Insaurralde. Together for Change contrasts with 27.6%, with Diego Santilli clearly ahead (11.2%) and the rest divided between seven: Cristian Ritondo (4.2%), Javier Iguacel (3.6%), Diego Valenzuela (2 .2%), Joaquín de la Torre (2.1%), Martín Tetaz (2.1%), Néstor Grindetti (1.1%) and Gustavo Posse (1.1%).
They complete: "Javier Milei's candidate" 6%, Romina del Plá 2.1%, Santiago Cúneo 1.9%, Graciela Camaño 1.5%, Emilio Monzó 0.9%, Florencio Randazzo 0.7%, Blank 2 .6% and Don't know 7.1%.
Detail
: this table, nor any of those that measure the governor separately, contemplate a sensitive subject.
The presidential ticket drag
.
If the elections go together (as up to now and as it is presumed to be repeated this year), the one that "pulls" is the national ballot and there are usually not too large ballot cuts.
With another central fact: in the Province, the governor is the one who gets the most votes in the general election.
There are no floors or balloting planned.
How would this affect?
On the one hand, it is presumed that it can harm Kicillof, who today tends to measure better in polls than the presidential variants of the Frente de Todos;
and to benefit "Miilei's candidate", since the libertarian economist has been showing good numbers in the Province.
The latter, paradoxically, would be good for Kicillof since (it is assumed) he would get votes from Together for Change.
For now, all electoral lab theory.
With Burlando as "Milei's ally"
The second scenario posed by the survey reduces the offer by one applicant, because it puts
Burlando as the "Mileei candidate"
.
There, the lawyer's voting intention rises to 13.1%.
And the rest suffers minor modifications.
They end like this:
-
Axel Kicillof 28.4%
and Martín Insaurralde 4.3%:
total Front of All 32.7%.
-
Diego Santilli 11.7%
, Cristian Ritondo 4.2%, Javier Iguacel 3.5%, Joaquín de la Torre 2.4%, Martín Tetaz 2.3%, Diego Valenzuela 2.1%, Néstor Grindetti 1.1 % and Gustavo Posse 1.1%:
total Together for Change 28.4%.
-
Fernando Burlando (Milei) 13.1%.
- Jose Luis Espert 9.6%.
- Romina del Plá 2.2%.
- Santiago Cuneo 1.9%.
- Graciela Camano 1.1%.
- Emilio Monzó 0.9%.
- Florencio Randazzo 0.9%.
- Blank 2.7%.
- Don't know 6.5%.
look also
The polling season broke out and the Frente de Todos already has a candidate: Javier Milei
K alert for a survey: Cristina Kirchner fell in 18 provinces and in 9 she is worse than Alberto Fernández