Erwan Le Noan is a strategy consultant, member of the scientific council of the Foundation for Political Innovation (liberal think-tank) and lecturer at Sciences Po. He is the author of La France des opportunites (Les Belles Lettres
,
2017 ).
THE
FIGARO.
- Aurélien Pradié's "
repeated positions
" on the pension reform were "no
longer in line with the values of coherence, unity and unity which must guide the Republican right
", affirmed Éric Ciotti to justify the ousting of the deputy of Lot from his position as number 2 of the Republicans.
How did his dissonant voice harm the party?
ERWAN LE NOAN. -
There are two axes of response: one is ideological, the other concerns political strategy.
If we start with the second, what I understand is that an agreement had been established between the LRs and the government to support the text on pension reform.
In exchange for certain amendments incorporated into the final version, the Republicans had to vote in favor of the text.
In terms of political strategy, LRs have no choice but to make compromises to remain a credible partner.
An attitude that Pradié would not have followed by going it alone.
And which therefore earned him his place.
Ideologically, the LRs must choose their line.
But Aurélien Pradié offers one that is too original, even frankly confusing for someone on the right of the political spectrum.
A party must have a political line, it is not a think-tank.
Its goal is to win elections on a clear offer, that is to say by identifiable ideas on which citizens can position themselves.
Was the decision to remove Pradié from management therefore inevitable?
If LR wants to exist permanently in the political spectrum, this party must have a more or less clear line.
Otherwise it has no chance to weigh in the next elections, except to be only a gathering of individuals who use it for their personal objectives.
This party needs consistency
If we consider that this is the mandate that emerged from the last internal election, it is indeed inevitable that those who regularly adopt a position orthogonal to the approach pursued find themselves sidelined.
And this, regardless of the winner and regardless of the line.
This party needs consistency.
How is Ciotti's decision to oust Pradié, holding a social line, perceived by the right-wing electorate, in your opinion?
Above all, it seems to me that it is an abuse of language to say that Aurélien Pradié is the only one to hold the bar of the social right.
There is no monopoly on social concerns and too often, on the right, we have confused “
social questions
” and “
socialist program
”.
There are liberal and reformist politicians like Philippe Juvin for example who have an interest in social policy.
Read alsoPradié, pensions … These fifty days when Éric Ciotti imposed himself in the tumult at the head of the Republicans
Beyond this question of language, I would say that the right-wing electorate is not very fond of disunities and personalities that multiply thundering outings.
They would prefer a right that starts working and offering real alternatives.
LR, caught between macronists and RN, does it not risk weakening even more, with in particular deputies likely to join the ranks of the Horizons party of Édouard Philippe?
When you are in a hypercompetitive market, you have to distinguish a distinct and clear offer.
Therefore, in view of the upcoming elections, LR must assert its line even if it means losing a few elected officials.
The Republicans' problem is that they cannot define this line, they hesitate and get lost.
On the side of Horizons, not sure that the arrival of Aurélien Pradié would necessarily be a benefit when they position themselves rather as right-wing reformers.
They too need a clear line and that would increase political confusion.
The moral of this internal crisis is therefore that LR must give up its social fringe and assume a liberal conservative line?
It is above all necessary to start by establishing a coherent base.
The social fringe does not have a monopoly on social issues.
If in France this liberal conservative line is not very well known, it is more familiar in Great Britain with the Tories;
to follow this path, on which we could situate reformers like David Lisnard or Jean-Louis Thiériot, or which someone like Bruno Retailleau also wishes to embody, for example, would allow the right to differentiate itself and to exist in the political landscape distinguishing itself from the RN and the government.
They could thus put forward a pragmatic side, for example on the reform of public services, the role of the State, the public debt...
It is better to do this work of clarification now than to wait too long
The majority of the French electorate recognizes itself in values that are assimilated to the right, as shown by the Fondapol surveys, on questions of transmission, security or school, among others.
It is therefore a boulevard that would open up to anyone who knows how to articulate such a discourse.
The LRs are not the only ones who want to get into this niche: Horizons and certain members of the government too.
Conclusion, the right must get to work if it wants to have any hope of winning the elections in 2027. It is better to carry out this work of clarification now rather than waiting too long and it being too late.
SEE
ALSO -
Éric Ciotti dismisses Aurélien Pradié from his position as number 2 of the Republicans
