Mikhail Khodorkovsky sees dark times ahead for Vladimir Putin if the war is not won.
What's more, according to the critic, Putin will not survive long.
Munich/London – War has been raging in Ukraine for almost a year.
What happens if Russia does not win its war of aggression?
What is happening in Moscow - more precisely in the Kremlin?
As far as the fate of President Vladimir Putin is concerned, one of his biggest critics has a clear opinion: If the Kremlin boss is defeated, he will die within two years, according to ex-oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Khodorkovsky told the
Handelsblatt
: "Putin will not live forever.
And personalized regimes usually do not outlive their founder.
The end of Putin will come sooner rather than later.” According to Khodorkovsky, this will only not happen if Putin “not obviously” loses the war.
"If we lose militarily, it may take two years.
If defeat isn't obvious, maybe ten more."
Khodorkovsky used to be a Russian oligarch himself.
He was imprisoned in Russia for ten years.
He thinks Russia's future depends heavily on the West after the Ukraine war.
He says: "Every government after Putin is dependent on an end to the sanctions." He sees three scenarios here.
Three scenarios for a post-Ukraine Russia
In the first scenario, the West would support those trying to crush Russia.
"That would be a dangerous path - then an even more aggressive Russia could emerge," warns the ex-oligarch, explaining: "The breakup of Russia would make people's lives worse, and then a new dictator would quickly be found who would address people's fears and promises to bring Russia back to its old strength.”
A Year of Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia
A Year of Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia
In the second scenario, the West is looking for a “good tsar”.
But that would also "end badly," Khodorkovsky said.
Because the new leader would also look for enemies abroad to strengthen his power.
He himself prefers the third scenario: rebuilding Russia from the regions.
"Create a real federalism and a parliamentary model", with a democracy on the model of France or Germany.
But he also emphasizes: “We should not be naïve.
Using Putin as an example, we see how important a role violence plays in Russia.
Therefore, only whoever the troops are behind will matter;
the army, the secret service FSB or the National Guard.
As long as they stand together, nothing changes."
(cgsc)
Ukrainian helicopter pilots attack Kremlin troops using Soviet-era helicopters. They fly low to avoid being targeted.
