Putin's possible plans in Ukraine 80 years after the Battle of Stalingrad 1:11
(CNN) --
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny likes a phrase, "wonderful Russia of the future," shorthand for a country without President Vladimir Putin.
However, in the year that has passed since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has returned to a dark and repressive past.
Over the past 12 months, Putin's government has cracked down on what's left of Russian civil society and presided over his country's first military mobilization since World War II.
Political opponents like Navalny are in prison or abroad.
And Putin has made it clear that he seeks to reassert Russia as an empire in which Ukraine has no place as an independent state.
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The war in Ukraine drew a clear line under the period of high Putinism, a decade that began with Putin's controversial return to the presidency in 2012. That era, in retrospect, was a prelude to the current war: Russia annexed the peninsula. of Crimea in 2014 and backed armed separatists in Ukraine's Donbas region, while Putin's technocrats worked to shield the Russian economy from sanctions.
Since the invasion last February, Putin has ignored international protests and sanctions.
Independent media and human rights groups have been branded as foreign agents or shut down altogether.
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Russia is now in a new uncertain phase, and it is clear that there will be no going back, no return to the previous status quo, for ordinary citizens.
So, isn't Putin's stay in power in question?
Now there are rumors within the country about another wave of mobilizations.
And in Moscow, signs of elite competition are beginning to emerge, even as some Russians see through the cracks in the wall of state propaganda.
Police officers detain a protester during a protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Saint Petersburg on February 27, 2022. (Credit: Sergei Mikhailchenko/AFP/Getty Images)
The distorted lens of history
On February 2, Putin visited the southern Russian city of Volgograd to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in what was then called Stalingrad, a crucial turning point in what Russians call the Great Patriotic War. .
In his speech at a gala concert in Volgograd, Putin directly linked the Battle of Stalingrad — the moment when the momentum on the Eastern Front shifted against Nazi Germany — and the war in Ukraine, warning that Russia faced a similar threat from a “Collective West” bent on its destruction.
“Those who lure European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia — and even more irresponsibly declare it a fait accompli — those who hope for a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently do not understand that a A new war with Russia will be completely different for them," he warned.
Invoking Stalingrad was a response to Germany's decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, something Putin complained about as "unbelievable, but true."
However, the president's visit to Volgograd had an element of what noted Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov described as the "cosplay" that Russia's ruling class uses to dress its policies in the regalia of a heroic past. .
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“Putin arrived in Volgograd, which was renamed Stalingrad for a few days on the occasion of the anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad,” Rogov wrote on Telegram.
"The anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, which is perceived as a turning point in the Patriotic War, is, of course, used as a grand allusion and patriotic warm-up ahead of the decisive second offensive against Ukraine that is being prepared."
Ukrainian officials have warned for weeks that Russia could be preparing a major new attack, perhaps to coincide with the 2022 anniversary of the invasion. In September, Putin ordered a "partial mobilization" after a swift and unexpected Ukrainian counteroffensive that drove out Russian forces from the northeastern Kharkiv region and set the stage for Ukraine's recapture of the southern city of Kherson.
Many of those troops have now gone through circuit training, further fueling speculation that Russia is engaged in a manpower-intensive war of attrition.
Observers also note that the Russian Army has adapted.
While Putin never had the victory parade in Kyiv that his generals were planning, he did appoint a new battlefield commander, signaling another shift in strategy.
“After the failure of the blitzkrieg (2022), Russia adapted and bet on a long war, relying on its numerical superiority in population, resources, military industry and the size of its territory out of reach of enemy attacks,” he wrote. Russian political observer and commentator Alexander Baunov in a recent Telegram post.
"This is a war of attrition that can be won without involving too many people... With the 'wait, add pressure, push' strategy."
War, however, is fluid and unpredictable.
As Baunov pointed out, the recent decision by Germany, the United States and other European allies to hand over main battle tanks to Ukraine may test Putin's long game.
“The return to rapid tank warfare ruins this new strategy that Russia has just set its sights on,” Baunov wrote.
"You may also need new people to hold the front, and this is risky."
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It should be clear exactly why this is risky: the first mobilization caused major shocks in Russian society.
Hundreds of thousands of Russians voted with their feet.
Protests broke out in ethnic minority regions such as Dagestan, where police clashed with protesters in several cities.
Russian social media saw a flurry of videos and public complaints about the lack of equipment and the appalling conditions of newly mobilized recruits.
Putin was able to weather the riots with his formidable and well-financed security apparatus, just as he was able to suppress the anti-war protests that broke out just after the February 24 invasion.
And in the months that followed the mobilization, Russia made some slow and grueling advances in Ukraine's Donbas region, particularly around the besieged city of Bakhmut.
Many of those advances have been led by soldiers from the Wagner group, a private military company headed by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Many reports on Wagner have focused on the group's brutal tactics, including wave attacks and the summary execution of wavers or deserters.
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But Wagner's methods are also a reminder of a grim chapter in Soviet history.
Prigozhin has recruited thousands of prisoners on the promise of amnesty or pardon, a practice that mirrors Stalin's use of penal battalions and convicts to undertake desperate or suicidal missions in the toughest sectors of the front, using wave attacks to overwhelm enemy defenses, no matter the human cost.
The mercenary group says it no longer recruits prisoners, but Wagner's costly successes on the battlefield have raised Prigozhin's profile.
While the oligarch has no official government position or administrative power, his ability to generate some results and his arrogant public relations operation have brought him much closer to Putin.
How close, exactly, is a matter of intense debate.
In an interview with CNN's Erin Burnett, Russian author and journalist Mikhail Zygar called Prigozhin's ambitions "the hottest topic for speculation in Moscow," noting that he amassed a political following that could potentially allow him to challenge Putin.
“He's the first folk hero (in) many years,” Zygar said.
“He is a hero for the most ultra-conservative part, the most, I would say, fascist, of Russian society, as long as we do not have any liberal part in Russian society, because most of the leaders of that part of Russian society are left, it is an obvious rival to President Putin.”
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Recent speculation has centered on whether rivals within Russia's power elite have tried to clip Prigozhin's wings.
Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya recently offered a skeptical take on Prigozhin's rise that takes some of those considerations into account.
In a recent article published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, she noted that Prigozhin has rivalries with Russia's energy ministries and doesn't show up much in polls.
“Is Prigozhin ready to challenge Putin?” he wrote in a recent piece.
“Although the answer is negative, there is an important 'but'.
It's hard to stay balanced and sane after going through bloody meat grinders and losing a significant chunk of staff.
As long as Putin is relatively strong and able to maintain a balance between the influential groups, Prigozhin is safe.
But the slightest loosening could prompt Prigozhin to challenge for power, if not directly against Putin at first.
War breeds monsters, whose recklessness and despair can become a challenge to the state.
Part of the fascination with Prigozhin has to do with the fact that Putin, until a year ago, enjoyed a secure monopoly on power.
The authorities had extensive experience in putting down street protests, and any significant political opposition had been effectively neutralized.
That fuels speculation, or perhaps wishful thinking, that the collapse of Putinism could be caused by some rift within the elite.
So-called siloviki (the hardcore authoritarians in Putin's inner circle) remain publicly loyal, but further setbacks in Ukraine may create a potential power struggle.
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Will the war come home?
In that context, some Russians have taken refuge in a form of political apathy.
CNN recently spoke to several Muscovites about how their lives have changed since last year, on the condition that their last names not be used because of the risks of publicly criticizing the government.
“There have been a lot of changes (in Russia), but I really can't make a difference,” said Ira, 47, who works for a business publication.
“I just try to maintain a certain internal balance.
Maybe I'm too apolitical, but I don't feel like (more mobilization) is going to happen."
Ira said he felt acute anxiety in February and March of last year, immediately after the invasion.
He had just bought an apartment and was worried that the job would run out and he would not be able to pay his mortgage.
“It got a lot worse in the spring,” he said.
“Now it seems that we have become accustomed to a new reality.
I started meeting and dating friends.
I started buying a lot more wine.”
The restaurants are now full, he said, but added: “The faces look completely different.
Hipsters, do you know what hipsters are? There are fewer of them."
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Ira doesn't have a son, so she doesn't have to worry about being mobilized.
But he did say that his 21-year-old daughter began hanging out at kvartirniki: informal word-of-mouth gatherings in private apartments, somewhat reminiscent of Soviet-era underground performances.
Olya, a 51-year-old event planner with two teenage children, said her family had opted for more internal vacations.
Europe is virtually closed to direct flights from Russia and opportunities to travel abroad are more limited.
“We started traveling around the country more,” he said.
Olya and her family are traveling with a group of friends, but some topics are off-limits in that circle.
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"We know in our group what everyone thinks about it (the war) but we don't talk about it, otherwise we will end up fighting," he said.
Life goes on, Olya said, despite the fact that there is a war.
“I cannot influence the situation,” he stated.
“My friends say, we do what we can, what is possible.
Getting depressed doesn't help."
One thing that helps the Russian government is the unexpected durability of parts of the Russian economy, despite heavy Western sanctions.
The war has been costly for the government: the country's finance ministry recently admitted it ran a larger-than-expected deficit in 2022, largely due to a 30% increase in defense spending over the previous year, but the International Monetary Fund projects a small return to GDP growth for Russia in 2023 of 0.3%.
A 38-year-old businessman named Georgy told CNN that from his business perspective, things seemed to be looking up.
“Those who have adapted quickly have reorganized, they are seeing growth,” he said.
"In January we closed an unusual number of deals and most of our activity typically picks up in February."
Georgy spoke to CNN during a traffic jam in Moscow, evidence that life in the capital has resumed some of its normal rhythm.
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“In terms of everyday life, practically nothing has changed,” he said, speaking about the cut off of Western imports.
"If we're talking about parts for a G-Class (Mercedes Benz), it could be more complicated."
When asked if his business has been affected by the exodus of Russians since the start of the war, Georgy said no.
“Did those I know personally leave?
Probably about five people,” she said.
“I have a patriotic social circle.”
Georgy said he was skeptical of the state media and said he looked to other sources of information.
And he recognized that theoretically he could be summoned in another wave of mobilization.
“My attitude is somewhat philosophical,” he said.
"Of course, I would prefer not to."
Before last February, Russia's fledgling middle class could benefit from Putin's social contract: stay out of politics and you'll enjoy life in a European-style Moscow or St. Petersburg.
Now the offer is coming to an end.
Russia is further from Europe than ever before, and it remains to be seen whether support for open warfare can be sustained.
War in UkraineVladimir Putin