By Aamer Madhani and Zeke Miller —
The Associated Press
A year ago, President Joe Biden was preparing for the worst as Russia massed troops to invade Ukraine.
While many in the West and even in Ukraine doubted the intentions of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, the White House was adamant: war was coming and Ukraine was woefully outgunned.
In Washington, Biden aides prepared contingency plans and even drafts of what the president would say if the Ukrainian capital Kiev fell rapidly to Russian forces, a scenario considered likely by most officials. americans.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was offered help to leave his country if he wanted.
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Yet
a year after the Russian invasion,
the city stands and Ukraine has exceeded even its own expectations, bolstered by a US-led alliance that has agreed to equip Ukrainian forces with tanks, advanced air defense and much more, while keeping the Ukrainian government afloat with tens of billions of dollars in direct aid.
[The United States accuses Russia of committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine]
For Biden, Ukraine was an unexpected crisis, but one that fits perfectly into his vision of foreign policy, in which the United States and its like-minded allies are in the midst of a generational conflict to prove that liberal democracies like the United States can outperform the autocracies.
In the view of the White House, the war transformed what had been Biden's rhetorical warnings — a staple of his 2020 campaign speeches — into an urgent call to action.
Now Biden prepares his trip to Poland on the occasion of the anniversary of the war, and faces a defining moment for his legacy.
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"The president's job is to champion the sustained support of the free world for Ukraine," said Daniel Fried, ambassador to Poland during the Bill Clinton administration and now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
"It's an important journey. And Biden can define the role of the free world in rolling back tyranny," he added.
The Biden Administration credits Ukraine's resilience to the bravery of its military, with the ineptitude of the Russian Army taking second place.
But they also believe that without their early warnings and the massive support they orchestrated, it would have been all but wiped off the map by now.
Sustaining Ukraine's fight, while preventing the war from escalating into a broader, potentially catastrophic conflict with NATO, will go down in history as one of Biden's enduring foreign policy achievements, the White House maintains.
In Poland,
Biden plans to meet with his allies
to reaffirm the United States' commitment to the region and to helping Ukraine "for as long as it takes."
It's a promise met with skepticism both at home and abroad, as the invasion enters its second year and Putin shows no sign of backing down from an invasion that has left more than 100,000 dead or wounded among his own forces, as well as dozens of others. of thousands of Ukrainian military and civilians, and millions of refugees.
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Biden's job now is, in part, to persuade Americans — and a global audience — that it's more important than ever to stay in the fight, while warning that a quick end is unlikely.
His visit to Poland is an opportunity to make the case to "countries that repudiate archaic notions of imperial conquest and aggressive wars the need to continue to support Ukraine and oppose Russia," said John Sullivan, who resigned as US ambassador to Russia in September.
“We preach that we seek to protect a rules-based international order.
It is completely finished if Russia has its way,” he stated.
The US determination to stand up to Russia is also being tested by domestic concerns and economic uncertainty.
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According to a poll released last week by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 48% of the US population favors the country supplying weapons to Ukraine, 29% oppose it and 22% are not even for or against.
It is evidence of the drop in support since May 2022, less than three months after the start of the war, when 60% of those polled said they were in favor of sending weapons to Ukraine.
In addition, citizens are evenly divided on sending government funds directly to Ukraine, with 37% in favor and 38% against, with 23% saying neither, according to the survey. from AP-NORC.
This month, 11 House Republicans introduced what they called the "Ukraine Fatigue" resolution, urging Biden to end military and financial aid to Ukraine while putting pressure on Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement.
Meanwhile, the more traditional wing of the GOP on national security, including newly announced 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley, were critical of the pace of US aid but were pushing for an expedited transfer of more advanced weaponry.
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"Don't look at Twitter, look at the people in power," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said at the Munich (Germany) Security Conference on Friday, "we are committed to helping Ukraine."
But Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, said he wants the president and his administration to impress allies with the need to share the burden as citizens tire of current levels of spending in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of his Administration, Biden has argued that the world is at a turning point pitting autocracies against democracies.
The argument was originally made with China as the biggest economic and military adversary, and with Biden seeking to reorient US foreign policy toward the Pacific.
The move to Asia is an effort that each of his recent predecessors tried and failed to complete as war and foreign policy crises elsewhere diverted his attention.
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To that end, Biden sought to quickly end the US military presence in Afghanistan seven months into his term.
The end of America's longest war was overshadowed by a chaotic withdrawal, as 13 American soldiers and 169 Afghan civilians trying to flee the country were killed in a bombing strike near Kabul International Airport by the Afghan affiliate of the group State. Islamic.
US officials say the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan has given the Administration the capacity and resources to focus on helping Ukraine in the first land war in Europe since World War II, while placing greater emphasis on countering the China's assertive actions in the Indo-Pacific.
Although the war in Ukraine led to huge increases in energy and food prices — exacerbating persistent inflation — it also allowed Biden to show his ability to work on all fronts to maintain Ukraine's aid and show his leadership on the world stage. , according to the White House.
However the coming months unfold, they will almost certainly be difficult.
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Although Biden last year had to back down from a public call for regime change in Russia that he had made on the spur of the moment from Poland just weeks after the start of the war, US officials increasingly see domestic discontent and internal pressures on Putin are the key to ending the conflict.
"So how does it end?"
said Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland at an event last week in Washington DC to mark the upcoming anniversary.
“It ends with a safe and viable Ukraine.
It ends with Putin limping back from the battlefield.
I hope it ends with a Russian citizenry saying: 'It was a bad deal for us, we want a better future.'
When Biden received Zelenskyy in Washington in December, the US president encouraged him to pursue a "just peace", a framing that the Ukrainian leader found squeaky.
For me, as president, "just peace" is without compromise," Zelenskyy said.
He stated that the war would end when Ukraine's sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity are restored, and Russia pays Ukraine for all damages inflicted by its forces.
"There can be no 'just peace' in the war that has been imposed on us," he said.