The winter seems to be over for the most part, the storage facilities are full and the prices for gas, oil and electricity are relatively low.
But the downward trend could reverse again.
Munich - After the concern about the winter in Germany, the eyes are directed to the Far East.
The economic recovery there should have a major impact on prices in Europe in 2023.
For consumers, the right timing is important.
The energy markets in focus: Gas
European gas prices have fallen moderately from 59 to 49 euros per megawatt hour since the beginning of February.
This means that gas costs a good two-thirds less than in November.
The influences in Germany are favorable: The storage tanks are still (remarkably) 71 percent full, the German Weather Service expects temperatures to be slightly to well above the long-term average by mid-March.
There are positive developments on the world market: US natural gas prices have plummeted in recent weeks and are currently at just over nine dollars per megawatt hour.
That makes exports more attractive, explains Thomas Peiß, energy expert at BayernLB: "Of the three major LNG exporting nations, the USA serves the spot market the most." From a purely technical point of view, more deliveries would be possible: "In January, the utilization rates of the US LNG export terminals were around 93 percent.
So there would still be some room to expand exports," says Thomas Peiß.
However, significantly more US gas can only be expected in the long term: by 2025, export capacities will have increased by almost 50 percent.
In the second half of the year, prices could turn around again, explains Gabor Vogel, raw materials analyst at DZ-Bank: "We mustn't let the high storage levels blind us too much: the Russian gap still has to be closed in 2023.
LNG imports play an important role here – especially when the filling season is in the summer.”
But the market is tight: “Around 80 percent of LNG is contractually bound.
We are in competition for the remaining 20 percent.” Vogel does not expect a significantly larger supply for 2023: “From a purely technical point of view, the LNG capacities for this year are largely exhausted, an increase can only be expected marginally.”
Last year there were also special effects: "The Chinese have booked a lot of capacity, which they sold to Europe last year." But: "That will not happen again - especially at the current prices - either China needs it Gas themselves – or they sell it to Asian competitors, where prices are currently higher than in Europe.” This is a relatively new phenomenon.
Last year, most of the short-term deliveries were shipped to Europe because of the higher prices at the time.
The consequence: "In order to procure gas, prices in Europe would have to be permanently more attractive for LNG exporters."
The energy markets in focus: tip for consumers
Gas tariffs are currently available for an average of just under 11.8 cents per kilowatt hour and are therefore below the price cap.
Anyone who does not want to afford higher prices can secure themselves at these conditions for the coming heating period.
Full storage and warm weather suggest that there could be another more favorable time window in spring.
Those who are financially flexible can gamble on it - with the risk of rising prices.
Gabor Vogel: "The probability that it will be cheaper over the summer is low."
The energy markets in focus: electricity
When it comes to electricity, gas remains the key factor.
Inexpensive consumer tariffs are currently available for less than 37 cents per kilowatt hour, and regional providers are also tempting with tariffs of this magnitude.
The energy markets in focus: oil
A small tremor went through the oil markets last Friday: Russia announced that it would reduce its production by five percent in March.
This corresponds to about 0.5 percent of global production.
Commodity analyst Gabor Vogel classifies the announcement: “Russia initially only announced the cut in production for March.
One month will not turn the market upside down.” It is not due to the lack of demand: “I believe that Russia will continue to find buyers because Russian oil is currently trading 26 dollars cheaper than Brent.” Because only that G7 countries sanction Russian oil.
"It's probably more of a symbolic maneuver, a reaction to the Western sanctions: you want to show that you can harm the West.
According to the motto: We tried it with gas and why shouldn't we also try it with oil," says the DZ Bank analyst.
"More significant for the next twelve months is the announcement by OPEC+ that it will not compensate for Russian shortfalls." On the other hand, there is demand in China that is growing dynamically.” There were 50 percent more aircraft in the air there in January alone than in December.
"The Chinese influence should already be noticeable in crude oil in the spring, and the economic outlook in the rest of the world will have brightened again in the second half of the year." that global demand will drive prices to $95 in the medium term and $100 in the long term.” It will only become more expensive if Russia produces less in the long term.
Under the current conditions, Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch also sees an oversupplied market in the first quarter: "In the second quarter, the market is almost balanced, but in the second half of the year there is still a risk of a considerable supply deficit."
The energy markets in focus: tip for consumers
According to the comparison portal Heizoel24, heating oil costs 1.02 euros per liter, just as much as a year ago.
At the turn of the year it was still over 1.20, the low for the year was just under one euro.
The European gas oil reservoirs – a precursor for heating oil and diesel – are currently full and the global crude oil market is oversupplied.
This is likely to change drastically as a result of the loss of Russian diesel supplies and China's recovery.
If that happens, it would make sense to fill the heating oil tanks in spring and not just in autumn.
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