Last weekend, Iran celebrated the 44th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, which brought the Ayatollahs to power.
Rallies and processions were held in the streets of Tehran, where hundreds of thousands of protesters chanted "Death to Israel and the USA" and burned their flags.
It is doubtful whether Iran's leaders really have a reason to party.
The country is in a deep economic crisis, which gives rise to resentment and even hostility towards the regime among the citizens of Iran, which finds expression in the waves of protest that have returned and plagued the country in the last decade.
The last wave of protest among them, unprecedented in its scope and duration, was the Hijab protest - the protest of restless young people, who asked for a better future than the regime could offer them.
Iran's security forces had difficulty dealing with the wave of protest and bringing it to an end, despite repressive measures that included shooting at the demonstrators and killing hundreds of them, arresting tens of thousands and quick trials, followed by executions, in the best tradition of Iranian justice.
But it seems that the wave of protest has exhausted itself, both because the protesters lacked leadership to lead their struggle, and because many sectors of Iranian society avoided joining them.
And yet, if one day the Ayatollah regime falls - then history will remember the wave of hijab protest that heralded and even accelerated this fall.
But this will not happen in the foreseeable future.
And in any case, the Iranian regime feels safe to continue on its own.
After all, he does not perceive the plight and protest of the citizens of the country as a real threat to his existence.
The clock in Tehran, the clock of Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards, is not directed by the state of the economy, but rather it points to the nuclear and the military build-up, which the regime perceives not only as a tool to achieve its goals, but also as those that will ensure its survival for the future.
And in the meantime, cracks are appearing in the walls that closed in on Iran.
Due to the war in Ukraine, Moscow was pushed into Tehran's arms, and the two countries are deepening their cooperation.
There is no doubt that Tehran's mobilization alongside Russia and its willingness to help it in its difficult time will not be forgotten by the Russians, and it is assumed that Tehran will be able to collect the price in the near future.
China also expresses sympathy and understanding for Tehran's "legitimate ambitions" to obtain a nuclear capability, and works to tighten ties with it.
Here it is, yes, a new axis - Tehran, Moscow and Peking - whose underlying logic is, of course, hostility to the USA.
The Americans built on the economic sanctions they imposed on Iran to put pressure on the regime, if not bring it down.
But it turns out that sanctions are not enough.
Although they burden the daily life of Iranian citizens, they are not enough to bring the Ayatollah regime to change its policy.
It, it turns out, only responds to an actual and concrete military threat.
For example, in the spring of 2003, when the USA occupied Iraq and when Tehran was convinced that Iran was next in line - that's when the Iranians on their own initiative stopped their nuclear program for several years, without negotiation and without an agreement. Likewise in January 2020, with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds, when it became clear to Tehran that Donald Trump not only talks - but also does.
And finally - the same is true in Syria, where determined offensive activity by Israel deters Iran and curbs its efforts to establish itself in this country.
But for that you have to put the gun on the table.
The problem is that the US shows hesitation, and is also busy in other arenas of action, which may be more important to it than the Middle Eastern arena.
This means, as far as Israel is concerned, that we are getting closer and closer to the decisive moments of fate, when Israel will be required to threaten, and perhaps also act.
For this, inquiries and attention are required, as well as unity of ranks and a consensus that will back up decisions that the leadership in Israel may be required to make in the near future.
Unfortunately, we are busy with fights at home.
It is worth remembering and reminding ourselves that Iran precedes reform.
were we wrong
We will fix it!
If you found an error in the article, we would appreciate it if you shared it with us
