Conflict researcher Thorsten Bonacker says: Putin's survival depends on the course of the war.
Russian entrepreneurs could build another president.
Marburg/Cologne – Do you still remember where you were on February 24, 2022?
The day when war broke out in Europe again after decades.
Not a few thought that within a few months Russia would have completely conquered Ukraine.
But things turned out differently, not least because of the continued supply of weapons from the West.
Both sides are still capable of fighting, and Ukraine was even able to recapture areas that had already been occupied.
A quick end to the war is not in sight.
Nevertheless, politicians in Kiev keep emphasizing that the year 2023 will bring a turning point.
In Moscow, on the other hand, a major Russian spring offensive is to be prepared.
Because Russia is currently making little progress militarily, and there are no significant successes.
A possible end depends on numerous factors - on military successes and Ukraine's staying power as well as on the political situation around Vladimir Putin and the continued willingness of the West to provide Ukraine with military aid.
In the end, the war developed more and more into a battle of attrition with numerous deaths.
Ukraine-Russia war: peace talks with Vladimir Putin not possible
The
Frankfurter Rundschau
by
IPPEN.MEDIA
spoke to Prof. Thorsten Bonacker from the Center for Conflict Research at the University of Marburg about what was going on in the war.
He does not expect the Ukraine war to end quickly.
To do this, Russia must come to the conclusion that it makes no sense to continue this war because the own costs are simply too high, he says.
For example, with an increasing number of casualties, destroyed military equipment and a further weakening of the Russian economy.
“Then we will meet at the negotiating table.
But that can still take a long time.
One thing is certain: Russia will not win this war,” analyzes the sociologist.
Currently there is no way that Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are sitting at the same table.
As long as Putin denies Ukraine's right to exist,
“The problem is that Putin's own political destiny is far too tied to winning the war.
But that won't happen.
Putin can therefore only survive politically if he keeps the war going.
Under the condition you don't conduct peace negotiations," says Thorsten Bonacker.
But it is very difficult for Putin to end this war and at the same time sell it as a victory.
However, this is necessary because Putin cannot continue to exist as a defeated president.
"That doesn't work in Russian society, nor in his narrative," says Bonacker.
Russia's war against Ukraine: Russian elites could spell doom for Vladimir Putin
One hope is that Vladimir Putin will be overthrown from within his own ranks - and the war will end with it.
Because a peace between Russia and Ukraine only seems possible without the Russian ruler.
But is that even a realistic scenario?
Prof. Thorsten Bonacker points to the importance of the Russian elite.
The sociologist believes that there is currently a lot at stake economically as a result of the sanctions: “If groups split off and set up another presidential candidate, it could be dangerous for Putin.
Because with dwindling support from the elites, he would have to act much more domestically.
At the expense of its foreign policy.” However, an uprising by the people themselves is not to be expected, because the regime has too much control over society, according to Bonacker.
A current report by the Institute for War Studies (ISW) makes matters worse.
In view of the failure of the Russian armed forces in the war with Ukraine, Putin is still unable to present his country's public with successes in aggression against the neighboring country.
The last significant success was the capture of the city of Sievjerodonetsk in July 2022, writes the Washington-based think tank.
Analysts think it is unlikely that Putin will announce any measure that will further escalate the war in his upcoming State of the Union address on February 21.
The content of the speech will probably not be an announcement of major mobilization plans or other significant political initiatives, according to the US institute.