Le Figaro.
- Economists differ on the trajectory of the Russian economy in 2023. What are the EBRD's forecasts?
Beata JAVORCIK.
- Forecasting is an even more difficult exercise in troubled times.
We forecast a contraction of 3% in Russian GDP when the school of economics in kyiv envisages -6% and the IMF a positive growth of 0.3%.
This large discrepancy is explained on the one hand by the different hypotheses adopted concerning the effect of the ceiling on the prices of hydrocarbon exports and on the other hand on the capacity of the Russian government to stabilize the economy.
At the EBRD, we believe the caps will have more impact than the IMF thinks.
What makes the forecasting exercise even more difficult is that Russia has stopped publishing certain trade statistics, including trade with the Eurasian Economic Union,
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