"They call me dictator, when we have left our work in the hands of the Colombian Congress, as a democracy requires," said President Gustavo Petro on Tuesday, in his closing speech at the mobilization he had called to show popular support for his social reforms .
It was the closure of his commitment to reactivate the streets, those that put the previous government in check and that helped him win the presidency.
The closure of a movement so that his reforms would reach Congress with more force, where the majority government coalition begins to show fissures.
It is not surprising that the legislative majorities begin to show doubts.
Although last semester the Government had a steamroller, which allowed it to carry out the law of total peace and especially an ambitious tax reform, the coalition has more support in the power of the president in a presidential country, in the bureaucratic representation in the Executive or in the popularity of a recently elected president, than in agreements to carry out a government program in which everyone is represented.
In short, more of a congressional coalition than a government one.
After all, it was not obvious that the first president elected by the left in decades could command majorities in Congress.
He started with his own bench of around 20% of Congress.
To grow further, he needed to add support from traditional party benches - against which he has made politics for decades - or from center or right-wing forces - which he had just defeated in the campaign.
He finally succeeded, adding to his coalition even the Conservative Party, which has represented the right since the mid-19th century and was one of the bastions of recent presidents to whom Petro made tenacious opposition, such as Álvaro Uribe or Iván Duque. .
Formally, he has the support of almost 75% of the current senators.
With these large majorities, the Government has proposed carrying out a year of many new regulations, which materialize its promise of change;
As the president of the House of Representatives and Petro's bishop, David Racero, told this newspaper, "The social reforms of the coming semester are the main agenda of the Government."
Among them are the law of submission, which is essential for his total peace policy;
the addition of 23 billion pesos to the national budget, which will give it the resources to advance goals such as agrarian reform;
prison reform;
and especially the three well-known reforms to social security: labor, pension and health.
Taking all this forward is essential for the Government to demonstrate that it is achieving the change it has promised, and that is why politics returns to the Capitol.
The difficulty is that the legislative coalition is not necessarily permanent and is already suffering from tensions, especially now that a health reform has arrived that heated up the spirits before it was known and that finally reflected the toughest positions within the diverse Government Cabinet.
This reform, in particular but not only, poses a great challenge for the Government: that Congress endorse the proposals that define its mandate.
The ball remains on the side of the congressmen.
The allure of supporting a president includes receiving some of his popularity, as occurred in the eight-year term of the then-very-popular Uribe, who in 2002 was the first Colombian president elected in the first round since the 1991 constitution created the ballotage, and obtained 20% more votes than his follower, Horacio Serpa.
In contrast, Petro won in the second round with 11.3 million votes against 10.6 for his opponent, a margin of just 3%.
To this is added that according to the most recent polls, less than 50% of those consulted approve of the president's management.
It makes sense that a politician of other ideological tendencies, of dissimilar constituencies to Petro's, would consider moving away from him.
He has it more when the regional elections are already in sight, and when the bid of his political group for the mayoralties and governorships is probably against petrist candidates.
Although eight months before the elections the electoral alliances have not yet been defined, in a country with strong regions and weak political parties, they tend to be diverse.
Parties that are bitter rivals in an election can be close allies in the neighboring department or municipality.
In Bolívar, for example, it is possible that the Petrism and the conservatism of the Montes house end up together, while in Boyacá that possibility is practically impossible.
The consequence of this complex electoral map is that colleagues from the bench and from the party may have totally opposite interests and positions regarding whether or not to support the government, remain in the coalition, or even vote in favor of one project or another.
The case of the Green party, which has among its senators leading petristas such as Inti Asprilla but also permanent critics of the Government such as Jota Pe Hernández, exemplify the complex reality faced by the Minister of the Interior, Alfonso Prada, and in the government generally.
The question is what is the strategy to ensure that the majorities remain on their side.
Bureaucratic representation may be insufficient.
The Conservative Party, which has the Ministry of Transportation, removed Senator Carlos Trujillo from his leadership because many congressmen felt that he had concentrated the appointments in his individual favor.
The U, which in principle has the Ministry of ICT, is debating its position on the health reform that its director, former congresswoman Dilian Francisca Toro, has criticized.
The Liberals received from their sole leader, former President César Gaviria, a document highly critical of that same reform.
In fact, it will be that reform that will first determine the degree of success or failure of the Petro.
It was for her that the president mobilized the streets, she is the one who has created the most controversy, she is the one who represents a more radical vision of his change.
In contrast, the pension or labor seem to arouse more agreements, those of justice affect the daily life of Colombians less, the tax achieved consensus because it was more incremental than radical.
In addition, the health reform is already under discussion.
If he gets entangled in Congress, not only Petro's governance is entangled, but also the image that he can achieve the changes he has promised through this path.
However, even so that conclusion is not obvious.
For the professor at the Universidad del Rosario Yann Basset, there is a way for Petro to emerge victorious if the health reform stagnates in these months.
“Even if it is delayed in Congress, due to how complex and controversial it is, with his filing, Petro already has proof of his commitment to the most radical bases.
And if in the meantime he manages to carry out the pension and labor reforms, which seem to be less polarizing, he would add results, concrete changes, ”he says.
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