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Crosses and suspicions between mayors for the Census: did they change data to charge more?


They accuse each other of having manipulated population data to receive greater sharing. There is a criminal complaint and some mayors of the suburbs ask that their municipalities be surveyed again.

Citizens are often engaged and enthusiastic about the

National Census

that takes place every ten years.

In the last three surveys, participation exceeded 90%, despite the fact that everyone knows that an excel spreadsheet that determines how many we are and how we live does not put more money in anyone's pocket.

Nor does it prevent deaths due to insecurity or that Fair Prices seem increasingly unfair.

The Census per se will not change anything, but it does help to make public policies more efficient.

Conducting the Census costs a lot of money.

And time.

A country is paralyzed for 24 hours.

But in Argentina everything can fail and so much effort may not be of much use due to the suspicions generated by some of the results.

That is, that the data does not reflect what it is supposed to reflect.

Some of this happened in

Greater Buenos Aires

, where Peronist and non-Peronist leaders have doubts about the 2010 Census and, now, about the one that was carried out last year.



suspect that there could have been errors where intentionality would win out over negligence.

And they point against a supposed "drawing" in the number of inhabitants of various municipalities in the


, the most inhabited region and one of the most densely populated in the country, with almost eight and a half million inhabitants.

There are already

legal complaints

for the survey of 2010, when INDEC, intervened by Cristina Kirchner, published that many more people lived in La Matanza than it actually had.

"This manipulation distorted everything. At that time, no one dared to denounce it. It was to go against Néstor (Kirchner died in October of that year) and Alberto Balestrini, a powerful and respected figure in the PJ of the province (former mayor of La Matanza and lieutenant governor of Daniel Scioli also passed away in 2010)," recalled a community chief who always recognized himself as more Peronist than Kirchnerist.

Those allegedly manipulated data would have allowed

La Matanza

to receive billions of pesos from the provincial co-participation that would not have corresponded to it.

There is a criminal complaint for tampering with a public document and, in a low voice, most of the Peronist mayors admit that "some rogue put a hand in favor of La Matanza with the consent of the country's leaders."

Fernando Espinoza, mayor of La Matanza.

But like deja vu,

the same suspicion germinated with last year's Census results


It is not a minor fight for the chiefs of the Conurbano: having more inhabitants in their parties represents greater political power and, above all,

more funds for the municipal coffers


A neighbor more or one less hits on the money that comes in from the Buenos Aires co-participation, which means 36% of everything that the Province distributes among the Communes.

The system works more or less like this: the Census establishes that there are a certain number of inhabitants in a District.

It is a current and real photo for that year in which the survey was carried out.

Then, INDEC projects how the population will grow during the other years until the next Census is carried out.

If everything was done well, this latest survey should ratify those projections.

In the meantime, according to these estimates, the mayors were receiving co-participation funds.

In most countries the same system is used,

by sex and simple ages

, through the RUPEX program, developed by the United States Bureau of the Census.


in almost the entire world, there are no significant differences between the projections and the census that must ratify them

Some mayors would think about asking Marco Lavagna, from INDEC, to repeat the census in their districts.


2022 Census confirmed that precisely the projections made in 2010 were wrong


Curious, or not so curious, the greatest differences in the amount of population occur in the parties of the First and Third Section of the GBA, but not in the total number of inhabitants of the Province of Buenos Aires.

According to the projections of the 2010 Census, in 2022 the Province of Buenos Aires should have 17,800,000


The last survey gave



That is to say, the 2010 Indec technicians were extremely precise and serious: they only screwed up in


inhabitants, that is, a 1.7% difference.

On the other hand, the problem deepened in the municipalities, with

La Matanza as the tip of the iceberg


"In 2010 they did not dare to manipulate the total number in the Province, but they did reach into the Conurbano. And so that the final number of Buenos Aires does not vary, the residents were distributed in the GBA. The 2022 Census confirmed it" , points out showing dozens of forms a Peronist mayor who did not hold his position in those years.

Fernando Gray, from Esteba Echeverría, one of the community chiefs who could ask to repeat the census.

Examples: in the 2022 census,

La Matanza had 22.6% fewer inhabitants than projected

, an unjustifiable difference that allowed the commune to receive billions of pesos apparently more for co-participation.

Of the estimate for 2022 of 2,374,149 Matanzas, INDEC confirmed that only 1,837,774 actually live there.

With more modest distortions, the same occurred in

Ezeiza (11% difference), Quilmes, Merlo, Tigre and Florencio Varela (between 6% and 7% less than projected)


On the other hand, among the municipalities that now have more inhabitants than projected,

Lomas de Zamora (6%) stands out,

a commune that several in the League of Mayors call "La Nueva Matanza".

Also Morón, San Martín, San Miguel, Vicente López and Tres de Febrero.

All these communes should begin to receive more resources for co-participation and those with a negative difference, less.

The situation triggered new suspicions about the growth of the population of Lomas de Zamora, the district of the Buenos Aires chief of staff, Martín Insaurralde.

To such an extent that some mayors are considering asking the head of the INDEC, Marco Lavagna, to go back, to take a census of several regions of their municipalities where they assure that errors occurred again.

The most determined is Fernando Gray, by

Esteban Echeverría

, but he is not the only one.

Gray has already warned that in the next few days he will demand a new census "but well done."

It is understood: his commune was one of the hardest hit (11.6% less), that is, it lost inhabitants as projected: of the estimated 383,538, it was left with 339,030.

In Lomas they deny black hand

, although they admit that the final number with respect to the projected one generated suspicions.

But they reject any accusation "as happened with La Matanza."

We will have to wait for a decision by Lavagna, who seems to be more concerned with offering the Minister of the Economy, Sergio Massa, inflation that allows him to come close to his promise of less than 4% for March/April.

And the governor

Axel Kicillof



escapes getting into that fight

between the Peronist mayors of the GBA.

He has already warned that he will not lower the co-participation delivered, although he could adjust future ones, according to the new data from INDEC.


Don't put me in that bundle

," he replies.

Like a series that promises more chapters than The Walking Dead.

look too

Homeless people, made invisible in the Census

Census 2022: in addition to La Matanza, another 13 municipalities of the GBA could lose income due to co-participation

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-02-21

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