The restructuring of the Russian army leadership continues.
Meanwhile, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is launching a new campaign against the Defense Ministry.
Moscow – The Russian offensive in the Ukraine war has been stagnating for months.
Since the capture of the city of Lysychansk in the summer of 2022, Russian territorial gains on the battlefield have largely failed to materialize.
Only in January of this year did Russia achieve another notable success by capturing the small town of Soledar.
Above all, however, the Wagner mercenaries around Yevgeny Prigozhin claim this for themselves.
Criticism of the Russian military leadership is growing.
This is one of the reasons why President Vladimir Putin decided to restructure his army's command structure.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin (m) together with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (l) and the commander of the Russian troops in Ukraine Valery Gerasimov.
© Sergey Fadeichev/imago-images
Ukraine war: After foiled conspiracy – Putin continues to restructure military leadership
This has now been completed with the appointment of four commanders for the Russian military districts in Ukraine.
The Kremlin had already replaced the supreme commander of Russian troops in Ukraine in January.
Sergei Surovikin, who was only given command in autumn 2022, was demoted to the second rank by Putin.
He was followed by Valery Gerasimov.
Surovkin's demotion could reportedly be linked to a failed conspiracy involving Wagner boss Prigozhin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in addition to Surovikin.
The conspiracy probably represented the climax of a power struggle in the Russian military. On one side is the Ministry of Defense around Sergei Shoigu.
On the other side are Kadyrov and Prigozhin, who wanted to gain more influence in the Russian military.
The appointment of the new commanders for the military districts in Ukraine was therefore also eagerly awaited.
These could be seen as pointers to the course of the power struggle.
Prigozhin versus Shoigu: Putin soothes power struggle in Moscow
As the US experts from the think tank "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) analyzed in their situation report on Saturday, a neutral solution was chosen: "The Kremlin probably has relatively neutral personalities in the fight between the Wagner and PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Defense Ministry to these positions to appease both parties," the ISW said.
As the military experts have further analyzed, the four new district commanders are likely to serve as scapegoats in the event of further military defeats and relieve Shoigu and Gerasimov of responsibility.
This step is intended to protect them from increasing criticism.
This is also supported by the clear definition of military districts and the naming of the commanders who are responsible for them.
"The formalization of military district commanders also coincides with a likely attempt by the Ministry of Defense to delineate clearer areas of responsibility for each military district in Ukraine," the ISW experts said.
In the event of military failures in the respective areas, a commander would always be available who could take responsibility for possible defeats.
"Putin's Koch" continues to dish out attacks against the Ministry of Defense
Although Putin tried to calm the conflict between Prigozhin and Shoigu by naming the commanders, the Wagner boss seems to continue to stir up feelings against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
"Prigozhin seems to be intensifying its information campaign against the Ministry of Defense and stated on February 18 that the Wagner group is not under the authority of the Ministry of Defense and 'has nothing to do with the Russian army'," reports the ISW in the February 18 situation report.
"Putin's cook" had hoped again for the support of Kadyrov.
For example, this week Prigozhin publicly visited wounded soldiers of the Kadyrovtsy Division.
Recently, however, the Chechen leader clearly sided with the Defense Ministry.
On Friday, Kadyrov reiterated that Chechen troops will follow orders from all commanders appointed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and that Chechen combat officers have an excellent, well-coordinated relationship with the defense ministry.
Kadyrov is turning his back on Prigozhin – is the Wagner boss losing an ally?
The ISW experts see Kadyrov's departure from Prigozchin in the statements to the Kremlin.
"He probably refused to join Prigozhin's renewed information attack on the Defense Ministry because his formal ties to the Kremlin and his position in the Russian government are more advantageous than any political relationship with Prigozhin could be," according to the ISW analysis.
Putin's circle of power in the Kremlin - the confidants of the Russian President
Putin's circle of power in the Kremlin - the confidants of the Russian President
If the Wagner boss now also loses Kadyrov's support, his position of power in the Kremlin's orbit could continue to suffer.
The Russian human rights activist and dissident Vladimir Osechkin recently expressed the assessment that Prigozhin not only had to fear for his power, but even for his life.
"It would be great luck for Prigozhin if he lived to see the tribunal on himself," said Osechkin.
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List of rubrics: © Sergey Fadeichev/imago-images
