Putin's big spring offensive will fail: Experts give several reasons

Hardly any tanks, poor training for the soldiers: The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine has rolled out - but the chance of success is not great.

Munich - The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is in full swing.

Troops of the Russian military are advancing in both the Donetsk region and the Luhansk region.

However, reports and estimates from experts are piling up that the spring offensive could quickly falter.

Because the chances of success are slim - but current losses, as in the city of Wuhledar, are simply smiled at by Vladimir Putin.

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This wrecked T-90 tank shows that Russia takes casualties even with their most modern tanks.

According to the ISW, the Russian military needs exactly these to carry out the spring offensive effectively.

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© ZUMA Wire/imago-images

But what is the current situation in the Ukraine war?

On Monday, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the British Ministry of Defense provided an assessment of the current status of the Russian offensive.

Both Western institutions are reporting massive problems for Russia's troops in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

At the same time, the experts warn of the consequences that a failure of the offensive could have.

The tension in the Russian military leadership could continue to escalate, it said.

Russian offensive lacks war material in Ukraine war - "Will not achieve the desired goal"

"The operation lacks sufficient support and material to increase the pressure on the Ukrainian defenders and the intensity of the attacks," write the ISW experts in their report assessing the Russian offensive in the Luhansk region.

In particular, the ISW observes a noticeable abstinence from tanks to advance the offensive.

This suggests that Russia has already lost many tanks in the Ukraine war.

Although the Russian military "certainly still has mechanized units in reserve," as the ISW writes, "Even if all reserves are focused on the Luhansk region, it is very unlikely that the Russian offensive will achieve its intended goal."

Russian offensive operates with old tactics in the Ukraine war - troops not sufficiently trained

Another observation made by the ISW on the Russian offensive in the Luhansk region is that Russian troops are again operating in so-called military districts.

Means: The troops are assigned a geographical area that falls entirely within their area of ​​responsibility.

The commander of an area controls the area and its troops and issues direct orders.

In the Ukraine war, the Russian troops mostly acted in unconventional structures.

This could be due to the high number of volunteer troop formations and the Wagner mercenaries.

The classic command structure of the Russian military needs adequate education and training.

"Due to the untrained troops and the lack of equipment, the return to the classic command structure shouldn't make any difference," the ISW experts assess the change in strategy.

Despite heavy losses in Donetsk offensive: Russia wants to announce gains on anniversary of war

The British Ministry of Defense provides regular updates on the war in Ukraine on the social media platform Twitter.

The latest report assesses the state of the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region.

The losses are particularly high in Bachmut and Wuhledar.

(4/4) If Russia's spring offensive fails to achieve anything then tensions within the Russian leadership will likely increase.

— Ministry of Defense 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 20, 2023

The Russian troops are under immense political pressure as positive news is expected on the first anniversary of the start of the war.

"It is likely that Russian media will announce capture of Bakhmut on the first anniversary - whether this is true or not," writes the British MoD.

It also assumes that "if the spring offensive is unsuccessful, the tension in the Russian leadership will continue to intensify".

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