On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered this year's State of the Union address to both houses of Congress at noon in Moscow.
Since last year's State of the Union address was cancelled, and the war between Russia and Ukraine was about to expire on the 24th, Putin himself just changed his generals last month, which led to changes in the combat system in Ukraine. When the "special military operation" will be one year old, whether Putin will announce major military changes.
However, Putin has disappointed many observers.
In his speech, Putin, as expected, upheld the rights and interests of the Russian population in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine as the reason for his march into Ukraine, accusing the West of encouraging the Ukrainian regime to carry out "terrorist activities" in the Donbass under the guise of peace, supporting The "neo-Nazi", pro-Western regime that "kidnapped" Ukrainians.
Putin again described Ukrainian nationalism as "anti-Russian," drawing parallels with what he claimed were "German Nazism" caused by Western laissez-faire, and the Ukrainian national narrative that flourished within the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the 19th century, which Putin believed was only anti-Russian.
This "Putin view of history" is familiar to observers of the Russia-Ukraine war.
mediocre nothing new
Putin criticized the United States for having military bases all over the world, accused the West of refusing to negotiate security guarantees with Russia, and claimed that the West started the war first, and Russia only used force to stop it.
He also claimed that the West is trying to turn regional conflicts into global conflicts, threatening the survival of Russia and even the survival of Russian Orthodox culture
Regarding the escalation trend of Europe and the United States increasing military aid to Ukraine this year, Putin claimed that the more the West supplies Ukraine with long-range weapons, the farther Russia will be forced to push the threat away from its borders.
This sentence is already Putin's clearest sentence on the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war.
However, in the past month, the Russian army has intensified its offensive in Luhansk, Donetsk, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar.
Putin's ability to carry out that statement by force has been continually called into question.
The Russian counteroffensive was concentrated on three fronts: the Svatove-Kreminna front, Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
(liveuamap)
In 2014, Igor Girkin, who led the pro-Russian separatist forces in Donetsk and was fired after the downing of Malaysia's MH17 airliner, criticized Putin for not declaring a formal war on Ukraine, nor acknowledging the defeat and failure on the battlefield. The responsibility of the Russian government.
The vast majority of Putin's speech is mainly about internal affairs: improving care for the families of dead soldiers, improving soldiers' training and treatment, providing preferential rental housing for defense workers, increasing domestic production with higher value-added and high technology, and building new logistics infrastructure, investing in housing and community facilities, providing various tax breaks to businesses, improving education and professional training, introducing welfare policies to encourage births, raising the minimum wage increase to a level higher than the inflation rate, etc...
In addition to these domestic issues, the biggest foreign policy change is the suspension of the implementation of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) signed with the United States.
This treaty limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons of both sides and allows both sides to monitor each other's nuclear weapons.
However, the United States has previously stated that Russia has suspended such surveillance-related cooperation.
Putin's State of the Nation address was unremarkable and uninspiring, which is to be expected.
In addition to officially declaring war, re-executing the mobilization order, etc., there is indeed no sharp ax that observers and analysts can think of in Russia's war against Ukraine.
People's expectations for Putin's speech are probably only based on speculation about whether Putin will have a "magic stroke".
However, this time Putin did not point out the course of the war in Ukraine at all, and there may be room for linkage with China hidden behind it.
Some commentators believe that Putin's speech was smooth and steady, and he was not as impetuous as when he announced the use of force against Ukraine last year.
(Reuters)
The "magic pen" comes from China?
On the day Putin delivered the State of the Nation Address, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, arrived in Moscow to meet with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary General of the Russian National Security Council.
Previously, at the Munich Security Conference, Wang Yi had stated that China would propose a political solution on the first anniversary of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Such unprecedented initiatives are rare.
The Wall Street Journal also reported on the 21st that Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Russia this spring, intending to play a more active role in ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin confirmed at a press conference on February 20, "In a few days, it will be the first anniversary of the Ukrainian crisis, and China will issue a position paper on a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis."
He also drew a general framework for this position paper: "This document will reiterate President Xi Jinping's important propositions, including that the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries
should be respected,
the purposes and principles of the UN Charter
should be respected, and
the legitimate security concerns of all countries
should be respected.
It should be taken seriously, and all efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully should be supported. We will reiterate that a
nuclear war cannot be won or won
, and we also call for
the protection of civilian nuclear facilities and oppose attacks on nuclear power plants
. We will also advocate a joint opposition to the use of biochemical weapon."
Wang Yi (right), member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba (left) on February 18, 2023, while attending the Munich Security Conference.
(Chinese Foreign Ministry)
Coincidentally, recently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also raised concerns that China may export lethal weapons to Russia, and issued a warning to this end, which was echoed by the European Union.
Although the export of lethal weapons is obviously not in line with China's position, Blinken's statement reflects to some extent his vigilance against further cooperation between China and Russia on the Ukraine issue.
From the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, people knew that only China had the real power to influence Putin's decision-making.
When European and American countries and their allies, as well as the vast majority of Asian, African and Latin American countries have already made clear their positions on the Russo-Ukrainian war, in addition to the sudden change in the battlefield situation, China has become the country most capable of reversing the current deadlock.
Therefore, China's "position document" has left a lot of room for the imagination of all walks of life.
Could this be the consistent "empty talk" of China's "persuading peace and promoting talks", and it is only used to strive for the moral high ground in international public relations?
Can China come up with a plan that can be accepted by Western European countries such as Germany and France? On the one hand, it can expose the differences within the European and American countries, and on the other hand, it can help Russia withdraw for a long time or temporarily under more favorable conditions?
in the end…..?
Perhaps, the "magic pen" that people "hoped for but did not get" in Putin's State of the Nation Address will be unexpectedly revealed in China's "position document" on Ukraine on February 24.
What is the main content of Putin's State of the Nation Address?
The most familiar criticisms of the West are devoted to internal affairs.
What are the variables most likely to change the general trend of the Russia-Ukraine war at present?
China's upcoming "position paper on the political solution to the crisis in Ukraine".
